81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[darinp2]

This is a repeat of what I posted on AVS about the numbers:

Looks like the latest Harry Potter didn't make the top 10 for Blu-ray, but according to some earlier information it was just behind Goodfellas on HD DVD's list, so we should be able to calculate the best case scenario for it for HD DVD. Given that Goodfellas was 4.88 on HD DVD, let's assume that Harry Potter 5 sold the same (since it was the same or lower). The overall charge shows the combination for HP5 as 22.13. If HD DVD took 4.88 of that, it would leave 17.25 for the Blu-ray version. Or:

17.25/4.88 = 3.5:1 or greater as the ratio for that title between Blu-ray and HD DVD.

I don't recall that title being on any special deals on either format last week.

Also, as far as volumes, the 74 for YTD after Blu-ray had 65 and 85 could be taken as a sign that volumes went down. However, it makes the most sense to me that YTD would be based on final numbers for week 1, but only First Alert for the last week. And First Alert likely shows lower volume than the final numbers, unless there is some extrapolation in those FA numbers. So, I think it is hard to say whether overall volumes were bigger or smaller than last week without more data.

--Darin

[WriteSimply]

Here's more interesting stats. For every 100 copies of 3:10 To Yuma are sold:

300 - 28.05 copies for BD + 2.5 copies for HD DVD are sold
Blood Diamond - 23.36 copies for BD + 6.3 copies for HD DVD are sold
Goodfellas - 21.06 copies for BD + 4.88 copies for HD DVD are sold
HP & Goblet - 22.3 copies for BD + 1.13 copies for HD DVD are sold

Conversely, the #1 HD DVD which is The Kingdom would have sold 10 copies per every 6.08 copies of Blood Diamon sold. This tallies well with the ratio of 100 copies of 3:10 sold, which means that for every 100 copies of 3:10 sold, 10 copies of The Kingdom were sold.

Basically, the cost of staying neutral or staying RED is becoming really apparent to Warner, Universal and Paramount. The ratios of Warner's titles alone are staggering for this week.


fuad

[galperi1]

For those that like numbers....for shared titles with % available....

300 (~12 to 1)
BR - 28.05%
HD - 2.50%

Blood Diamond (~4.5 to 1)
BR - 23.36%
HD - 6.30%

Goodfellas (~5 to 1)
BR - 21.06%
HD - 4.88%

HP: Goblet of Fire (~20.5 to 1)
BR - 22.3%
HD - 1.13%

HP: Prisoner (~25 to 1)
BR - 20.84%
HD - 0.86%

[darinp2]

To try to put 85:15 in perspective a little bit, other than rounding, this means that if either Blu-ray had sold half as many as it did, or HD DVD had sold twice as many as it did (but not both), the final ratio would have been 74:26.

--Darin

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

Basically, the cost of staying neutral or staying RED is becoming really apparent to Warner, Universal and Paramount. The ratios of Warner's titles alone are staggering for this week.

We should be reasonable and consider that titles in special sales on one format and not the other are likely to have unusual results. On the other hand, right before the Paramount switch the ratios for common titles had moved to about 2:1 average, even including titles that people wouldn't think of as targetting the PS3 crowd. I believe that one reason for that was people losing confidence in HD DVD, which both hurts sales to people who only own that format and hurts ratios with people who own both formats. At this time I think there is likely to be quite a bit less confidence in HD DVD than back in August and the confidence of the market in HD DVD will get worse over the next few months unless there is some huge positive event for HD DVD (which I don't expect). I almost wish there was a big day-and-date title coming out on both soon on the same day just so we could see how big the ratio would be for Blu-ray.

--Darin

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by Lee Christie

I'm in the UK too. Whenever I order anything from the US it's delivered to my door.

no, not me. i always collect it at post office

[SpikesBluBlooded]

Something I haven't seen mentioned here yet is what the effect on HD DVD will be after May from Warner's defection. Look at HD DVD's top 10, what do you see?...

[Xcom_Cheetah]

Its really a gr8 victory... i never expected to see this high ratio for Blu ray so early after the warner switch... so i was just wandering if this will stay here or it will slip back.. i expect to see the ratio for 75 - 80 to 25 to 20... till May and then it will remain above 80%... wot u people think.?

If the ratio remain this high then i m sure Universal and paramount r going to become blu a lot early...

[Slapper]

Awesome! Looks like that Amazon sale had a big effect. Goodfellas in the top 10. Blood Diamond in the top 10. 300 back up at #2. And look at all those Potters. Simply, WOW!

This says to me that a lot of new people are jumping on the Blu bandwagon and that great Amazon sales, especially Blu-ray Amazon sales, definitely have an impact on the Nielsen numbers at this point in the hi-def game.

[Grubert]

Made-up scenario:

W1 65,000: 35,000
W2 69,500: 12,500

[york weir]

Originally Posted by SpikesBluBlooded

Something I haven't seen mentioned here yet is what the effect on HD DVD will be after May from Warner's defection. Look at HD DVD's top 10, what do you see?...

I see roughly the same amount of releases they've had since Christmas.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Made-up scenario:

W1 65,000: 35,000
W2 69,500: 12,500

Just to mention it again, the First Alert could have had higher volumes in week 2 than week 1, but the YTD skew toward week 1 if the numbers used for that were the final for week 1 and the First Alert for week 2. Put another way, if next week is 74:26, I think the YTD could still go up to 75:25 even if the final numbers for this week stayed at 85:15. I don't know how big the differences in volumes are likely to be between First Alert and final numbers, though.

--Darin

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by darinp2

We should be reasonable and consider that titles in special sales on one format and not the other are likely to have unusual results. On the other hand, right before the Paramount switch the ratios for common titles had moved to about 2:1 average, even including titles that people wouldn't think of as targetting the PS3 crowd. I believe that one reason for that was people losing confidence in HD DVD, which both hurts sales to people who only own that format and hurts ratios with people who own both formats. At this time I think there is likely to be quite a bit less confidence in HD DVD than back in August and the confidence of the market in HD DVD will get worse over the next few months unless there is some huge positive event for HD DVD (which I don't expect). I almost wish there was a big day-and-date title coming out on both soon on the same day just so we could see how big the ratio would be for Blu-ray.

--Darin

There is no such thing as a big day and date title anymore now that WB is delaying the HD DVD release 3 weeks. I don't know if the people who are neutral will just start picking up the WB Blu-rays instead of the HD DVD or if they are die hard HD DVD supporters they will wait the 3 extra weeks.

[york weir]

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

Conversely, the #1 HD DVD which is The Kingdom would have sold 10 copies per every 6.08 copies of Blood Diamon sold. This tallies well with the ratio of 100 copies of 3:10 sold, which means that for every 100 copies of 3:10 sold, 10 copies of The Kingdom were sold.

Is this 10:1 disparity between 3:10 vs Kingdom for a one week period or was The Kingdom numbers for the last three weeks included? If The Kingdom was including all three weeks then that is a killer, otherwise it's not really a fair comparison.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

There is no such thing as a big day and date title anymore now that WB is delaying the HD DVD release 3 weeks.

That's why I said "I wish". Also, there could be big day-and-dates coming the same day to both formats if Universal or Paramount go neutral (and depending on how "big" is defined).

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

I don't know if the people who are neutral will just start picking up the WB Blu-rays instead of the HD DVD or if they are die hard HD DVD supporters they will wait the 3 extra weeks.

There will be some diehards who wait, but the ratios between Blu-ray's first week and HD DVD's first week for a title like I Am Legend should be pretty big.

--Darin

[york weir]

Originally Posted by darinp2

That's why I said "I wish". Also, there could be big day-and-dates coming the same day to both formats if Universal or Paramount go neutral (and depending on how "big" is defined).
There will be some diehards who wait, but the ratios between Blu-ray's first week and HD DVD's first week for a title like I Am Legend should be pretty big.

--Darin

Yeah, that will be a landslide for sure.

It doesn't make it too fair considering blu will get it three weeks prior though. Any neutral people that don't care which format they support will no doubt pick up Blu first.

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by york weir

Yeah, that will be a landslide for sure.

It doesn't make it too fair considering blu will get it three weeks prior though. Any neutral people that don't care which format they support will no doubt pick up Blu first.

Even if you was neutral why would you pick it up in an inferior format???

[Papi4baby]

Originally Posted by york weir

Is this 10:1 disparity between 3:10 vs Kingdom for a one week period or was The Kingdom numbers for the last three weeks included? If The Kingdom was including all three weeks then that is a killer, otherwise it's not really a fair comparison.

I notice every post you make is border line againt's blu, what's your point, just say what's on your mind already.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by york weir

It doesn't make it too fair ...

That's the whole point.

Originally Posted by york weir

... considering blu will get it three weeks prior though. Any neutral people that don't care which format they support will no doubt pick up Blu first.

And there will probably be people who would have picked it up on HD DVD if it was coming out the same day, but will instead rent it or just find something else more interesting. Releasing later makes it more like a catalog title, but even worse since it will be out in high definition on another format.

I would expect this stuff to also help push some people toward Blu-ray players. It also should help drive home the point of where HD DVD is headed if they don't follow this war too closely and go into Best Buy looking for I Am Legend and see it on BD and not HD DVD. If they ask somebody who works there, hopefully they will tell the customers that Warner is dropping HD DVD after May, but will come out with some titles for the next few months on HD DVD after some delay. A sign in the HD DVD section spelling out why I Am Legend isn't in stock on the day it comes out on Blu-ray and DVD could be a nice touch.

I don't think the ratios will mean all that much (I agree with it not being fair), but should still be interesting to try to figure out (if there is really much point by then).

--Darin

[york weir]

Originally Posted by Papi4baby

I notice every post you make is border line againt's blu, what's your point, just say what's on your mind already.

no way, I think you're reading too much in to my posts.

What's on my mind. I was watching Wild Hogs on Blu last night and the PQ was amazing. The explosion at the biker bar was freakin' cool. I bought Die Hard: With a Vengeance from someone at work today on Blu and can't wait to check it out. I still haven't had a chance to check out my blu ray Spidy box set nor Die Hard: Live Free or Die Hard.