2012 Oscar Predictions

[EricJ]

Used to be, on the Usenet groups, we had terms for premature Oscar-buzzing.
(Don't worry, happens to everyone when they're a kid; just relax, try again, and don't get so overexcited...)

One of the favorite terms we used to have was "What's going to be this year's 'Beloved'?"
You remember that one, don't you? The slave-period Toni Morrison adaptation directed by Jonathan Demme, whose trailer had "Oscar sweep" written all over it, simply because, well, it SHOULD?
And then, the week the movie opened.....(wheeeww) (thud!) ()
A lot of folks were forced to tear up their betting slips in October. That'll teach 'em.
(If such movies still got nominated sight-unseen on pedigree and assumption, and still turned out to be crap onscreen, then they became "this year's Green Mile", and it usually caused the Oscar voters to panic at the last minute.)

There's "Oscar-bait", and there's "Oscar-bating".
I didn't see Spielberg at the Oscars the year "A.I.", "Catch Me If You Can", "The Terminal" or "Amistad", came out, even though a lot of very starry-eyed and easily awed fanboys thought he would be. (Of course, then again, those wear the years back when we had real nominees, not the gullible press-hype crap that the Golden Globe nominates, see above.)
I'm not slamming War Horse before it comes out, but then, I'm not renting tuxes two months before it comes out, either.
I'm with Murphy: ANYTHING can happen on opening night.