Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Vargo, if i may ask, how many blurays do you own?

Irrelevant. Regardless of whether he purchases physical, digital or steals his content, the facts are the facts and the numbers are the numbers. You can't rationalize away the facts just because you happen to like a media.

One can argue all they want about how vinyl is the best way to listen to music. And I've still got something like 1000 LPs in my living room. And vinyl sales have been growing substantially. But it's still less than 2% of the market.

One can argue all they want about how Blu-ray is the preferred way to watch movies. I totally agree with that. I think watching something of lesser quality actually raises my blood pressure. At the very least, it gets me annoyed. But that's completely separate from the fact that Blu-ray is only 24% of the physical media market and only 9.32% ahead of last year in dollars (and 11.21% in units).

I own more physical media than I have room for. Vinyl, VHS, CDs, DVDs, Blu-rays, Books, Journals, Magazines, etc. I cull, especially the print, all the time. I have been a very good consumer to the media industry...they should be kissing my feet. But I am really out of room, so for each new piece of physical media that I buy, something's gotta go. And that's a problem, because I happen to love box sets.

But that's totally irrelevant to the reality of what's happening to the industry, good or bad. You can love whatever media you want to love. You can hope it will succeed. You can continue to love it after it disappears. But you can't change the facts as to whether it's successful or not. Blu-ray will be "safe" as long as it grows. But if it starts to decline because of digital downloading, it will become endangered, especially if it falls back to less than 15% of physical sales. It doesn't matter if streaming looks and sounds like crap - all that matters to the studios is the revenue, earnings and cash flow.

[Pondosinatra]

Originally Posted by Alucard64

Sorry, but I will always prefer to have the physical media over digital downloads.

Ya but companies can't continually charge you over and over again if you have physical media. They want to take away the ability for people to resale items they've purchased. And if you want to re-watch that favourite movie of yours you need to buy it again.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Irrelevant. Regardless of whether he purchases physical, digital or steals his content, the facts are the facts and the numbers are the numbers. You can't rationalize away the facts just because you happen to like a media.

One can argue all they want about how vinyl is the best way to listen to music. And I've still got something like 1000 LPs in my living room. And vinyl sales have been growing substantially. But it's still less than 2% of the market.

One can argue all they want about how Blu-ray is the preferred way to watch movies. I totally agree with that. I think watching something of lesser quality actually raises my blood pressure. At the very least, it gets me annoyed. But that's completely separate from the fact that Blu-ray is only 24% of the physical media market and only 9.32% ahead of last year in dollars (and 11.21% in units).

I own more physical media than I have room for. Vinyl, VHS, CDs, DVDs, Blu-rays, Books, Journals, Magazines, etc. I cull, especially the print, all the time. I have been a very good consumer to the media industry...they should be kissing my feet. But I am really out of room, so for each new piece of physical media that I buy, something's gotta go. And that's a problem, because I happen to love box sets.

But that's totally irrelevant to the reality of what's happening to the industry, good or bad. You can love whatever media you want to love. You can hope it will succeed. You can continue to love it after it disappears. But you can't change the facts as to whether it's successful or not. Blu-ray will be "safe" as long as it grows. But if it starts to decline because of digital downloading, it will become endangered, especially if it falls back to less than 15% of physical sales. It doesn't matter if streaming looks and sounds like crap - all that matters to the studios is the revenue, earnings and cash flow.

Cash flow that will be massively reduced if we go subscription streaming (the only streaming that is actually succeeding by the way) Digital sell through is a damp squid i believe.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

All surveys show that people are spending less time listening to music in spite of portable music players. While I'll admit that I don't have hard research that proves that people using Facebook aren't listening to music at the same time, I think music sales stats tell the story. If you want to maintain that it has nothing to do with Facebook and the like and that music sales are half of what they used to be for other reasons, fine.

Also, since radio and music listening have become so fragmented with so many sub genres of music, it's rare that the masses listen to the same music. The result of that is that music becomes less important in the culture and when it's less important, sales decline. That's why, unless the culture changes again, there will never be another Sinatra, Elvis, Beatles, Stones, Dylan, Springsteen or Madonna, although I suppose that Adele is as close as we've gotten to a crossover artist in years. My hope is that a new generation of listeners will rediscover the pleasures of the album. Maybe the new interest in vinyl LPs (although still less than 2% of the market) will help drive this.

All leisure time activities compete with each other. With the advent of the internet and computers, there are far more activities than there were decades ago. So each traditional activity takes a hit in terms of the money spent on it and the time spent doing it. As just one example, while boxoffice revenues are up due to higher ticket prices and even higher ticket prices for 3D and IMAX, the number of tickets sold is down substantially from years past. In the U.S., the peak year for movie ticket sales was 1946, when there were about 86 million weekly admissions (vs. 25.4 million in 2010) in spite of the fact that U.S. population was only 141 million (vs. 308 million today).

When I was a kid, I probably saw 40 movies a year because there simply wasn't that much to do in spite of the fact that we spent far more time outdoors than most kids do today. And when I wasn't doing schoolwork or at the movies, I was listening to music, including extensive radio listening, which led to music purchases. Radio doesn't sell music anymore. I still personally buy music, but I must confess that when I walk into J&R, the last of the large physical music stores in New York City, it's usually a ghost town. And they've already reduced the space devoted to physical music (with about 20% going to games) as a result.

Word is that the big box stores like Best Buy are going to substantially reduce the size of future stores. Since physical retail is generally measured by sales per square foot, my bet is that music will be the first to go. It takes up lots of space and doesn't generate much profit or cash flow. In existing stores, it doesn't make a difference because they have to pay the rent on the space anyway.

Surveys......sigh!
So now you are predicting the death of music also?

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by prerich

You my friend have great vision. I'm actually myopic and wear bifocals !!! I can't see the pixel struture of a 62 inch 1080p picture at 8ft. The real benifit of 4K would be with large screens. I've seen it on this very site - where a person with a 27 inch tv hdtv and they will say they cant tell the difference between that and a DVD.

Prerich,

I've seen native 4K content on a 50'+ prototype screen. It is not true that you have to have a large screen to see its benefits. Or really great vision. These are myths.

Just a couple of basic points:

1. 4K content comes with an entirely different spectrum of colors, easily recognizable. You don't have to have 100'+ screen to see the difference, even if your eyes are not trained.

2. On 50+ screen 4K content will eliminate banding, aliasing and all sorts of other issues Blu-ray does not handle well. (Think the elimination of "ghosting" patterns which DVD had when improper PAL to NTSC conversions were done, which Blu-ray eliminated; similar will be the benefits with 4K content and banding/aliasing, etc.). Once again, you don't have to have trained eyes to see the difference.

These are only two of the very basic benefits 4K would deliver. It is complete nonsense some of these articles are pushing (for example, there is a long list of them courtesy of the pro-streaming PCWorld) for people who are poorly informed.

At the end of the day, the reality is this: for the studios, the paying group of customers is in the physical media camp. Anyone believing that people would switch to non-physical delivery methods, pay for content, and generate the same revenue physical media secures is very seriously delusional - as delusional as those who believed that people would want to pay for DIVX content and the studios would have a thriving market.

I will comment again on this issue in four years. We shall see whether Blu-ray players are still used (my opinion is that Blu-ray will be very much alive, growing, possibly with a 4K partner, etc). But I guarantee you this: In my house, four years from mpw a Blu-ray player will be used. I can also guarantee you that a Roku device will not be used.

Pro-B

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by vargo

The falling sales of physical media have already had an impact on retail. Just look at the statistics...

I have:

Indeed, first-quarter 2012 tallies from the Digital Entertainment Group (DEG) were heartening: physical sell-through of movies was up 2% for the quarter, while catalogue sales on Blu-ray Disc were up 27% and TV on Blu-ray sales were up 54%. The DEG estimates that 2.4 million players were sold in the first quarter, including BD set-tops, PlayStation 3s and Home-Theater-in-a-Box systems (HTiBs).

http://digital2disc.com/index.php/ne...still-gorgeous

Pro-B

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Maybe life support is the wrong word, but there is no way you can make the argument that CDs are doing well. The fact is that the music industry has gotten so much smaller, all forms of paid music, both digital and physical, are doing extremely poorly.

This has very little to do with delivery methods, and everything to do with talent. As far as the music industry is concerned, the truth is this: The talent simply isn't there.

Similar is the case with the movie business. Hollywood has been clobbered by much more aggressive and much smarter independent studios who have been producing far better content. If there is a crisis, it has to do with the quality of the content, not the distribution channels.

Pro-B

[Petra_Kalbrain]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Cash flow that will be massively reduced if we go subscription streaming (the only streaming that is actually succeeding by the way) Digital sell through is a damp squid i believe.

This is true also. The only form of digital that is succeeding right now is subscription based. I'd really be curious to find out what kind of numbers something like the Playstation Video Store has for PURCHASED films and TV episodes in a digital format.

All I know is that I sure as shit would rather spend an extra $5 at $24.99 to have the Blu-ray disc than pay $19.99 to have a 720p lossy audio digital copy on a hard drive somewhere.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by vargo

It is inevitable that optical media will become obsolete as a distribution format for 1s and 0s and that's simply common sense. It is the way the world is going.

The world can be a really stupid place, sometimes.

Originally Posted by Petra_Kalbrain

All I know is that I sure as shit would rather spend an extra $5 at $24.99 to have the Blu-ray disc than pay $19.99 to have a 720p lossy audio digital copy on a hard drive somewhere.

Hell, even if the digital file was as good as or slighty better than the Blu-Ray version, I'd still pay the $25 for the Blu-Ray over the $20 for the download just to have it in a physical format.

[gothic_hobbit]

He's spewing the same crap that Steve Jobs came out with.

Bluray is here to stay... period !

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by vargo

Total physical media sales are down.

But total none- BD sales are down even more. You tie a brick like DVD onto anything and chances are it won’t float.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Prox

Thanks for the link. The claim definitely counts Netflix viewings.

I'm not sure how they determine viewings for physical media (the methodology is never mentioned). The probably equate one purchase to one viewing, which is a poor approximation in my opinion. I feel that people generally purchase physical copies because they intend to watch the movie/show multiple times.

Yup. You have the gist of it, but it is even more ridiculous than that. “view” for streaming just means “picked something” so if Joe goes to Netflix picks a film, starts watching it, stops for some reason and goes back later to, hopefully, see the rest of it that would become two viewings since he picked it twice on Netflix (no one knows if he finished wathing it or not). Also these streaming services also have TV shows (but then again so does BD) but the difference is that if someone goes and buys Lost the complete collection, like you pointed out, that would count as one BD title, on the other hand if someone streams 3 episodes of a ½ hour sitcom (which would be 1h of watching more or less) that would count as 3.

In the end these are just BS numbers meant to give stupid people and people with an agenda a way too say “see streaming is in the lead.

It would be like someone saying, Anthony takes his car every day to the bus terminal where he takes the bus DT and then the metro and does the opposite to get home after work so each week that means 20 rides for public transportation and 0 for cars (since the car I drive is quite old and I have had it for years) and then decide that cars are on the way out.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

Irrelevant. Regardless of whether he purchases physical, digital or steals his content, the facts are the facts and the numbers are the numbers. You can't rationalize away the facts just because you happen to like a media.
.

I agree that for the most part who cares, but on the other hand sometimes it is useful to understand why someone is ssaying something. Likew you said facts are facts, and the facts are at the end of Q1 BD grew 23% over last year while EST only grew 17%, you look at Netflix on Sept 30 there were 20,511 US streamers, dec 31 20,153 (so a dip, not the right way fopr something taht delusional people think will take over the world soon) and 22,022 mar 31 http://ir.netflix.com/common/downloa...Statements.xls

this comparison was not even apples and oranges (since they are too similar), it was apple trees that just got planted to orange slices that where grown.

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Surveys......sigh!
So now you are predicting the death of music also?

No. I'm predicting the death of the music industry as we've known it for the last 50 years. In fact, many would argue that it's already died.

In the end, that could be a really bad thing or a really good thing. If the big labels actually disappeared, maybe, just maybe, we'd see the rise of successful small labels again run by people who understand and care about music, not just revenue. (There are thousands of small labels today, but very few are successful.) If you look at all the great labels, even the big ones, they were once run by music people: Berry Gordy at Motown, Ahmet Ertegun at Atlantic, Jac Holzman at Elektra, Moses Asch at Folkways; Alfred Lion, Max Margulis and Francis Wolff at BlueNote; Herb Alpert at A&M, Florence Greenberg at Scepter, Creed Taylor at Impulse, Leonard Chess at Chess, Jim Stewart at Stax and many others. These weren't all nice people and they frequently ripped-off their artists, but they knew great music.

[Steedeel]

I think it is possible that streaming services will just become the 'new' cable packages and bluray will be seen as it is now as a seperate source of home entertainment for purists. Let's not forget, no one is buying online movies at the pathetic price they are currently on offer for. They want subscriptions and eventually, subscriptions are going to become just as expensive as cable/sat services are presently. Especially for recent movies in any one bundle.

Another problem with streaming tech, is many, many people still have intermittent problems with their broadband. some people go days without it and that simply would not cut it for home cinema. At least now, i can throw a disc in, if that option is taken away, we are left with no movie if the Internet is not available. Even if it is working, ping and dropouts are extremely frequent for a lot of people.

[Dwayne]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I think it is possible that streaming services will just become the 'new' cable packages and bluray will be seen as it is now as a seperate source of home entertainment for purists. Let's not forget, no one is buying online movies at the pathetic price they are currently on offer for. They want subscriptions and eventually, subscriptions are going to become just as expensive as cable/sat services are presently. Especially for recent movies in any one bundle.

Another problem with streaming tech, is many, many people still have intermittent problems with their broadband. some people go days without it and that simply would not cut it for home cinema. At least now, i can throw a disc in, if that option is taken away, we are left with no movie if the Internet is not available. Even if it is working, ping and dropouts are extremely frequent for a lot of people.

You are correct. The broadband issue is a big thing nowdays and until they figure a way to make it available to everyone that is affordable and reliable I dont see streaming cinema as a threat to physical media. However this day will come because there is enough bandwidth out there and the majority of people have already shown that this is what they want. It really pisses me off kinda because i am one who enjoys the QUALITY of music and cinema and could care less about this stupid streaming everything. I am guilty of being under the influence of this technology because I too have an I-POD that I use sometimes when my home theater and music set up is not available but when I am at home I will and always will listen to my music on albums and CDs and my movies on BD and if forced to DVDs. Quantity and convienience has arrived and is not going away but it is highly unlikely that all physical media will dissappear in the near future. Thats my opinion and everyone has one.

[dobyblue]

Are we sure this wasn't written by Rob Enderle?

[KrugStillo]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. If there is a major solar issue that knocks out internet and wireless devices I can still watch my current DVD and Blu-ray collection on my HDTV using a gas powered generator. So with that in mind I don't see anything stream based taking over physical media anytime soon. Don't even get me started on cloud services.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Dwayne

You are correct. The broadband issue is a big thing nowdays and until they figure a way to make it available to everyone that is affordable and reliable I dont see streaming cinema as a threat to physical media. However this day will come because there is enough bandwidth out there and the majority of people have already shown that this is what they want.

Correction: What some people have shown is that they would love to steal a.k.a have it for free. This fantasy dream that all of a sudden people would flock to purchase movies online to view and "own" them is just that...fantasy dream.

Online business will replace physical media the day books are no longer printed and sold. In other words, it won't happen in my lifetime, and well beyond it.

Pro-B

[vargo]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Online business will replace physical media the day books are no longer printed and sold. In other words, it won't happen in my lifetime, and well beyond it.

Pro-B

As I said already, it is pointless to judge the death of a format this way. It is too absolute. Of course there will always be books printed and sold in your lifetime, or even 100 years from now.

As long as there is one person in a corner of the world printing books in 2112 on his grandfathers printing press, you'll be able to feel smug and say 'books arent dead yet'.


The point you should be interested in is when physical books account for <5% of total book sales. And this will certainly occur within my lifetime.