Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[octagon]

Originally Posted by vargo

The point you should be interested in is when physical books account for <5% of total book sales. And this will certainly occur within my lifetime.

To the extent the book analogy is relevant at all, the point of interest would not be if/when ebooks of some sort or another overtake paper books.

The interesting point would be whether books - whatever the format - you own, control and possess and can dispense with or dispose of as you see fit are supplanted by remote viewers that act simply as gateways to content - in this case books - owned, controlled and possessed by some other entity.

That day might well come in your lifetime but don't be too terribly surprised if it doesn't.

Getting back to films and the like, optical discs are certainly not the only physical media in which content can be stored and protected. Solid state media seems like a plausible enough candidate. In fact, flash drives and memory cards are already being used to distribute software and upgrades and the like. Distributing a firmware updgrade or other program on a usb drive or an SDHC card rather than via cd or dvd doesn't 'supplant' physical media - it simply swaps out one from of physical media for another. The task itself is fundamentally unchanged.

Brings to mind the old saw - the more things change, the more they stay the same.

This isn't based on reams of data or indepth sociological research but my gut says we shouldn't overlook that whole 'the more they stay the same' part when predicting the future.

People like owning and controlling the stuff they buy. That's not going to just go away.

Not anytime soon, anyway.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by vargo

The point you should be interested in is when physical books account for <5% of total book sales. And this will certainly occur within my lifetime.

O, I am quite interested, but what I've witnessed during my lifetime has thought me that there are only two certain things in life. I'll let you remember what they are.

In other words, your will certainly occur within my lifetime claim is just another one in a sea of claims that will be proven wrong. Books, and printed media for that matter, aren't going away.

The only certainty I've witnessed is that in the Internet era people still love to buy magazines, newspapers, and books - in very, very large numbers. Something tells me that going forward people will continue to want to buy and own movies on physical media - in very, very large numbers.

Hopefully, you will stick around so that we could see whether this so confident prediction this thread quoted will turn out to be true.

Pro-B

[vargo]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

The only certainty I've witnessed is that in the Internet era people still love to buy magazines, newspapers, and books - in very, very large numbers. Something tells me that going forward people will continue to want to buy and own movies on physical media - in very, very large numbers.

Amazon already sell more ebooks than total physical books. And that point was reached just 4 years into the life of the kindle.

Tablets are really just taking off, the iPad was launched only 2 years ago and Apple's competitors were slow to respond. So of course they have not yet had an appreciable impact on magazines and newspapers.

In the coming years they will become lighter, cheaper, and with new display technologies tablets will essentially converge with e-readers. Everybody who owns a cell phone today will own a tablet in 5-10 years time. It will just be a standard device that people take for granted.

Its absurd to look at how fast these technologies are growing and not to realise the impact they will have on printed media. Nobody 'loves' to buy and own magazines and newspapers, you read them once and then put them in the trash.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Prerich,

I've seen native 4K content on a 50'+ prototype screen. It is not true that you have to have a large screen to see its benefits. Or really great vision. These are myths.

Just a couple of basic points:

1. 4K content comes with an entirely different spectrum of colors, easily recognizable. You don't have to have 100'+ screen to see the difference, even if your eyes are not trained.

2. On 50+ screen 4K content will eliminate banding, aliasing and all sorts of other issues Blu-ray does not handle well. (Think the elimination of "ghosting" patterns which DVD had when improper PAL to NTSC conversions were done, which Blu-ray eliminated; similar will be the benefits with 4K content and banding/aliasing, etc.). Once again, you don't have to have trained eyes to see the difference.

These are only two of the very basic benefits 4K would deliver. It is complete nonsense some of these articles are pushing (for example, there is a long list of them courtesy of the pro-streaming PCWorld) for people who are poorly informed.

At the end of the day, the reality is this: for the studios, the paying group of customers is in the physical media camp. Anyone believing that people would switch to non-physical delivery methods, pay for content, and generate the same revenue physical media secures is very seriously delusional - as delusional as those who believed that people would want to pay for DIVX content and the studios would have a thriving market.

I will comment again on this issue in four years. We shall see whether Blu-ray players are still used (my opinion is that Blu-ray will be very much alive, growing, possibly with a 4K partner, etc). But I guarantee you this: In my house, four years from mpw a Blu-ray player will be used. I can also guarantee you that a Roku device will not be used.

Pro-B

My Roku device is a PC, my BD device is a PC. Four years from now - whatever they have, I will be using a PC

Now to the points you make.
1. Color spectrum, not recongnizable to everyone - I've seen it live, in person, during Expression Web trainings, making educational films, ect... Some people just can't tell the difference. I have a person that I work closely with that makes videos for education. Our supervisor's eye is not as "trained" as ours (neither are her ears). She wonders why he must be a video perfectionist. He will show a project and then tell her that he needs to do this and that, and she tells him - no that right there is good enough. She has told me she can't see all of the things he's talking about. You're looking through the eyes of a videophile, Joe and Jane Sixpack doesn't care aobut that. Even though you can see it - their paradigm won't let them see it (Cevolution made great points in his post).

2. "On 50+ screen 4K content will eliminate banding, aliasing and all sorts of other issues Blu-ray does not handle well. (Think the elimination of "ghosting" patterns which DVD had when improper PAL to NTSC conversions were done, which Blu-ray eliminated; similar will be the benefits with 4K content and banding/aliasing, etc.). Once again, you don't have to have trained eyes to see the difference".

I beg to differ - many of your J6P's can't or won't see the difference (it's a paradigm). However who is 4k aimed at....to those who can. Just like HD sound is aimed at those who can hear it. I actually know people who prefer TV speakers () to a full blown HT system (and not trying to enforce a stereotype but they all happen to be women). As a matter of fact, the majority of Roku, WD streamers, and the like are purchased by women. So we know whos puching these sales figures for streaming.

Let me go on record here, I do not want to see the death of BD. I would like to see the application of 1 to 1 managed copy (like they promised), so I can keep my disc put up and my content at hand. Still waiting on managed copy - even if I had to buy new hardware. I'm sure they would make one for your PC .

Oh on the issue of physical media though...just watch the Mac/PC world - Mac has already gotten rid of optical devices and more app (used to be called programs in my day) are going to non-physical delivery methods (they will charge you a premium for a physical copy). I can see this happening - by 2016, I hope not. The death of Roku is already here - the iPad, Android, Windows Phone, and for those who like to make it themselves - the personal computer already had it all over Roku (except for it's little teeny-tiny, cuteness - that appeals to people other than me ).

[wormraper]

Originally Posted by prerich

My Roku device is a PC, my BD device is a PC. Four years from now - whatever they have, I will be using a PC

Now to the points you make.
1. Color spectrum, not recongnizable to everyone - I've seen it live, in person, during Expression Web trainings, making educational films, ect... Some people just can't tell the difference. I have a person that I work closely with that makes videos for education. Our supervisor's eye is not as "trained" as ours (neither are her ears). She wonders why he must be a video perfectionist. He will show a project and then tell her that he needs to do this and that, and she tells him - no that right there is good enough. She has told me she can't see all of the things he's talking about. You're looking through the eyes of a videophile, Joe and Jane Sixpack doesn't care aobut that. Even though you can see it - their paradigm won't let them see it (Cevolution made great points in his post).

2. "On 50+ screen 4K content will eliminate banding, aliasing and all sorts of other issues Blu-ray does not handle well. (Think the elimination of "ghosting" patterns which DVD had when improper PAL to NTSC conversions were done, which Blu-ray eliminated; similar will be the benefits with 4K content and banding/aliasing, etc.). Once again, you don't have to have trained eyes to see the difference".

I beg to differ - many of your J6P's can't or won't see the difference (it's a paradigm). However who is 4k aimed at....to those who can. Just like HD sound is aimed at those who can hear it. I actually know people who prefer TV speakers () to a full blown HT system (and not trying to enforce a stereotype but they all happen to be women). As a matter of fact, the majority of Roku, WD streamers, and the like are purchased by women. So we know whos puching these sales figures for streaming.

Let me go on record here, I do not want to see the death of BD. I would like to see the application of 1 to 1 managed copy (like they promised), so I can keep my disc put up and my content at hand. Still waiting on managed copy - even if I had to buy new hardware. I'm sure they would make one for your PC .

Oh on the issue of physical media though...just watch the Mac/PC world - Mac has already gotten rid of optical devices and more app (used to be called programs in my day) are going to non-physical delivery methods (they will charge you a premium for a physical copy). I can see this happening - by 2016, I hope not. The death of Roku is already here - the iPad, Android, Windows Phone, and for those who like to make it themselves - the personal computer already had it all over Roku (except for it's little teeny-tiny, cuteness - that appeals to people other than me ).

I wouldn't read too much into the macs not having an optical drive. MACS are still a fringe market for 99% of people. Ipods, Iphones etc are mainstream but macs are still considered a DRASTIC minority in the computing world and PC's THRIVE off of optical drives

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by vargo

Amazon already sell more ebooks than total physical books. And that point was reached just 4 years into the life of the kindle.

Tablets are really just taking off, the iPad was launched only 2 years ago and Apple's competitors were slow to respond. So of course they have not yet had an appreciable impact on magazines and newspapers.

In the coming years they will become lighter, cheaper, and with new display technologies tablets will essentially converge with e-readers. Everybody who owns a cell phone today will own a tablet in 5-10 years time. It will just be a standard device that people take for granted.

Its absurd to look at how fast these technologies are growing and not to realise the impact they will have on printed media. Nobody 'loves' to buy and own magazines and newspapers, you read them once and then put them in the trash.

I am sorry but nothing you have written here refutes the points I made earlier. Essentially what you have done is add more speculations to prove that your previous speculations had the credibility they need.

Examples:

1. Amazon selling more ebooks than total physical books means little. There are thousands of institutions out there that purchase massive amounts of books each month and the idea that somehow they will stop doing so in the foreseeable future is quite naive. As I said earlier, I hope you are around long enough to see whether the claim quoted in this thread will turn out to be true.

2. I own a cell phone. I won't be buying a tablet in 5-10 years.

3. Technologies may evolve fast, but there is a good reason why people say that "The more things change, the more they stay the same". The concept of ownership won't disappear in my lifetime.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by prerich

My Roku device is a PC, my BD device is a PC. Four years from now - whatever they have, I will be using a PC

Now to the points you make.
1. Color spectrum, not recongnizable to everyone - I've seen it live, in person, during Expression Web trainings, making educational films, ect... Some people just can't tell the difference. I have a person that I work closely with that makes videos for education. Our supervisor's eye is not as "trained" as ours (neither are her ears). She wonders why he must be a video perfectionist. He will show a project and then tell her that he needs to do this and that, and she tells him - no that right there is good enough. She has told me she can't see all of the things he's talking about. You're looking through the eyes of a videophile, Joe and Jane Sixpack doesn't care aobut that. Even though you can see it - their paradigm won't let them see it (Cevolution made great points in his post).

2. "On 50+ screen 4K content will eliminate banding, aliasing and all sorts of other issues Blu-ray does not handle well. (Think the elimination of "ghosting" patterns which DVD had when improper PAL to NTSC conversions were done, which Blu-ray eliminated; similar will be the benefits with 4K content and banding/aliasing, etc.). Once again, you don't have to have trained eyes to see the difference".

I beg to differ - many of your J6P's can't or won't see the difference (it's a paradigm). However who is 4k aimed at....to those who can. Just like HD sound is aimed at those who can hear it. I actually know people who prefer TV speakers () to a full blown HT system (and not trying to enforce a stereotype but they all happen to be women). As a matter of fact, the majority of Roku, WD streamers, and the like are purchased by women. So we know whos puching these sales figures for streaming.

Let me go on record here, I do not want to see the death of BD. I would like to see the application of 1 to 1 managed copy (like they promised), so I can keep my disc put up and my content at hand. Still waiting on managed copy - even if I had to buy new hardware. I'm sure they would make one for your PC .

Oh on the issue of physical media though...just watch the Mac/PC world - Mac has already gotten rid of optical devices and more app (used to be called programs in my day) are going to non-physical delivery methods (they will charge you a premium for a physical copy). I can see this happening - by 2016, I hope not. The death of Roku is already here - the iPad, Android, Windows Phone, and for those who like to make it themselves - the personal computer already had it all over Roku (except for it's little teeny-tiny, cuteness - that appeals to people other than me ).

Interesting points

A couple of comments:

1. Well into the DVD boom days, some people could not tell the difference between widescreen and PAN/SCAN releases. Much earlier widescreen releases were essentially for aficionados. Widescreen or proper aspect ratio releases are now the standard. I am firm believer that going forward new standards will be set, including color depth standards (I think that just like color TV sets replaced B&W TV sets, virtual/interactive TV sets with much higher image capacities will be the norm in the future). And Joe 6P does not need to care for these standards to be imposed on the public. Joe 6P was just fine with PAN/SCAN VHS.

2. Well, yet again, 4K content does not need to be marketed to Joe 6P to be successful. I personally believe that the biggest issue 4K, as part of Blu-ray's portfolio, will face is...the content owners, as I am not convinced that they will be willing to essentially sell their masters for pennies - unless they compress them enough.

Prerich, in principle I agree with some of your observations, but you need to understand that the future market for the studios will be fractured - meaning that just like during the DVD boom days approximately 10% of hardcore consumers drove the market, not Joe 6P as you might think (and this isn't my observation, it is a fact confirmed by Universal's Craig Kornblau), the new business model will be a combination of different revenue streams; there will be physical media, there will be online consumption, and there will be satellite consumption/plus radio. This scenario where one takes over the other is the type of talk the likes of PC Magazine like to publish every couple of months to generate traffic.

Specifically as far as physical media is concerned, the data I have seen suggests, to me, that 4K will be an integral part of it. How big of a share 4K content will have? It all depends on two things: the state of the global economy and the content owners' willingness to sell their content.

Either way, Blu-ray is here to stay. But I expect to see two things happening in the foreseeable future:

1) Its tech portfolio is updated and standardized to accommodate 4K content.

2) New higher frame rates are introduced to meet certain demands from certain directors.

Have a good weekend.

Pro-B

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by wormraper

I wouldn't read too much into the macs not having an optical drive

Since it's technically MacBook laptops that are losing their optical drive--and the weight thereto--seeing as most laptops are just remote extensions of the desktop terminal.
As for the desktop iMacs, most not only still have an optical drive for hard-disk DVD's, but a remote control for viewing them, as well.

(And first Microsoft/HD-DVD, and now Netflix's Little Brother, who couldn't get any other channel besides Netflix and couldn't sell to anyone who already had a game console...Why does EVERY losing format start sour-graping that "Well, disks are probably dead anyway "?)

[vargo]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

I am sorry but nothing you have written here refutes the points I made earlier. Essentially what you have done is add more speculations to prove that your previous speculations had the credibility they need.

Examples:

1. Amazon selling more ebooks than total physical books means little. There are thousands of institutions out there that purchase massive amounts of books each month and the idea that somehow they will stop doing so in the foreseeable future is quite naive. As I said earlier, I hope you are around long enough to see whether the claim quoted in this thread will turn out to be true.

The point is to show how quickly these things have taken off. It took 4 years for the kindle to go from not existing to selling more ebooks on Amazon than physical. And Amazon sell a LOT of physical books since originally thats all they sold.

That's phenomenal growth and acceptance of a product (ebooks) that didn't exist in any real scale 4 years previous. Many owners would have been of the same opinion as you, they liked 'owning' physical books.

2. I own a cell phone. I won't be buying a tablet in 5-10 years.

Both my parents have a tablet and they're pensioners with zero interest in technology. It's going to become a standard device just like a TV or cell phone. You'll own one in 5-10 years, guaranteed.

[McCrutchy]

Originally Posted by vargo

Both my parents have a tablet and they're pensioners with zero interest in technology. It's going to become a standard device just like a TV or cell phone. You'll own one in 5-10 years, guaranteed.

I highly doubt this. On the portability end, smartphones are playing catchup rather quickly, and on the other end of the spectrum, we have computers and also, interactive TVs, which provide larger, better screens and faster internet speeds. I purchased a tablet late last year, and I sent it back within two weeks. There was simply nothing it could do that I wasn't already doing with either my PC or my smartphone. By the time the majority of home users are ready to integrate a tablet, they will either opt for a smartphone (budget conscious), or an interactive television (families and the wealthy).

The only place you may see tablets grow is in the workplace, where they can provide a larger mobile screen for executives or personnel who need to work on mobile presentations, but for home uses, I would expect tablets to be phased out in several years.

[vargo]

Originally Posted by McCrutchy

I highly doubt this. On the portability end, smartphones are playing catchup rather quickly, and on the other end of the spectrum, we have computers and also, interactive TVs, which provide larger, better screens and faster internet speeds. I purchased a tablet late last year, and I sent it back within two weeks. There was simply nothing it could do that I wasn't already doing with either my PC or my smartphone. By the time the majority of home users are ready to integrate a tablet, they will either opt for a smartphone (budget conscious), or an interactive television (families and the wealthy).

The only place you may see tablets grow is in the workplace, where they can provide a larger mobile screen for executives or personnel who need to work on mobile presentations, but for home uses, I would expect tablets to be phased out in several years.

Are you living in a goddamn cave?!

At the beginning of 2012, 19% of American adults owned a tablet.

The consumer entertainment tablet market basically didn't exist before 2010. And two years later 1/5 of American adults own one!

If that's not growth I don't know what is.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

3. Technologies may evolve fast, but there is a good reason why people say that "The more things change, the more they stay the same". The concept of ownership won't disappear in my lifetime.

agree, I always find it funny when people dismiss human nature in their predictions. People forget that formats (whatever they may be) don't die when something new comes along but when people don't see value in them and so are no longer willing to support them.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Prerich, in principle I agree with some of your observations, but you need to understand that the future market for the studios will be fractured

agree with this as well, what is funny is that it has almost always been. Beta came out a tad before VHS but I don't remember when studios started releasing the content (was it before or after VHS hit the market?) but before Beta dies LD was there studios dropped VHS in 2006 and in 2006 BD and HD-DVD came out, there was also D-VHS. Some people will want the premium quality because they care and some people will get what is available because they don't care. So there can be a day when sucky quality does not exist but there cannot be a day when bad quality is the only choice because there will always be people that care.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Interesting points

A couple of comments:

1. Well into the DVD boom days, some people could not tell the difference between widescreen and PAN/SCAN releases. Much earlier widescreen releases were essentially for aficionados. Widescreen or proper aspect ratio releases are now the standard. I am firm believer that going forward new standards will be set, including color depth standards (I think that just like color TV sets replaced B&W TV sets, virtual/interactive TV sets with much higher image capacities will be the norm in the future). And Joe 6P does not need to care for these standards to be imposed on the public. Joe 6P was just fine with PAN/SCAN VHS.

2. Well, yet again, 4K content does not need to be marketed to Joe 6P to be successful. I personally believe that the biggest issue 4K, as part of Blu-ray's portfolio, will face is...the content owners, as I am not convinced that they will be willing to essentially sell their masters for pennies - unless they compress them enough.

Prerich, in principle I agree with some of your observations, but you need to understand that the future market for the studios will be fractured - meaning that just like during the DVD boom days approximately 10% of hardcore consumers drove the market, not Joe 6P as you might think (and this isn't my observation, it is a fact confirmed by Universal's Craig Kornblau), the new business model will be a combination of different revenue streams; there will be physical media, there will be online consumption, and there will be satellite consumption/plus radio. This scenario where one takes over the other is the type of talk the likes of PC Magazine like to publish every couple of months to generate traffic.

Specifically as far as physical media is concerned, the data I have seen suggests, to me, that 4K will be an integral part of it. How big of a share 4K content will have? It all depends on two things: the state of the global economy and the content owners' willingness to sell their content.

Either way, Blu-ray is here to stay. But I expect to see two things happening in the foreseeable future:

1) Its tech portfolio is updated and standardized to accommodate 4K content.

2) New higher frame rates are introduced to meet certain demands from certain directors.

Have a good weekend.

Pro-B

On this post....I totally agree with you !

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by McCrutchy

The only place you may see tablets grow is in the workplace, where they can provide a larger mobile screen for executives or personnel who need to work on mobile presentations, but for home uses, I would expect tablets to be phased out in several years.

I disagree with the first part and have no idea for the second.

I can see tablets gaining ground in specific workplace markets (i.e. for a waiter where all he needs to do is click on the item chosen, security guards to be able to watch CCTV, for control systems like a VC system in a board room) but not as a general workplace tool, they are good for anything passive but could you really see an accountant typing all day punching in numbers on it? or someone writing a multi-page document, making complex PP presentations....... there is a reason that they make keyboards now for tablets and that is because they are needed for none-passive, none-simple work.

As for will they be phased out of home use. I find it a joke discussion, it is the same as the discussion I had with a co-worker that said PCs will be phased out. Tablets, laptops, desktops, netbooks...... they are all different names for the same thing, a computer. What will be more prominent or less prominent look of things in the future can’t be easily told, but let’s face it chances are that it will be different from anything we have now, maybe it will re-use a name we have today, maybe it will have a different name, but does it really matter?

is a laptop/netbook really any different from a tablet with a keyboard attached to it in order to make it usable for something other than reading e-mails and surfing the web?

[Tns49]

Originally Posted by morriscroy

At times I wonder whether movies in higher resolutions than bluray (ie. 4k, 8k, and higher) will be sold in the future on some proprietary memory cards or flash drives, instead of optical discs.

Possibly, although currently they are not anywhere as cheap as optical discs.

[Musashi]

Originally Posted by Tns49

Possibly, although currently they are not anywhere as cheap as optical discs.

True that. A 50GB BD-ROM costs under $1.50. There are even experimental optical discs holding way more than blu-rays do.

[GORT]

Originally Posted by vargo

The point is to show how quickly these things have taken off. It took 4 years for the kindle to go from not existing to selling more ebooks on Amazon than physical. And Amazon sell a LOT of physical books since originally thats all they sold.

That's phenomenal growth and acceptance of a product (ebooks) that didn't exist in any real scale 4 years previous. Many owners would have been of the same opinion as you, they liked 'owning' physical books.



Both my parents have a tablet and they're pensioners with zero interest in technology. It's going to become a standard device just like a TV or cell phone. You'll own one in 5-10 years, guaranteed.

So you own a time machine and you have traveled into the future. you have brought back proof that everything you say is going to happen

[segagamer12]

I recently got really burned by Google TV and Roku so I can say definitely I am done with streaming forever. I never chose streaming over Blu Ray for movies, only TV shows and stuff like cable tv. Financial trouble, jobs lost, forced us to disconnect the cable so we decided get a Google Tv because the liar at Radio Shack said it would work with every streaming website out there because of the built in web browser and Android apps. Just one friggin month after I bought the stupid thing BOTH companies responsible for it stopped supporting it. Stupid radio shack moron. Not to mention the lie it would play everything, hell it barely played anything. All it was good for was Facebook, Netflix and Youtube.


We had signed up for NBA League Pass before the financial trouble hit to so we were ok with shutting down the cable no loss there, except League Pass does not work with Google TV. Well finally I sold some DVD's picked up a Roku box because it promised to be more compatible than the Google TV. Also a lie, sure it did connect to and stream NBA games but the quality was crap and it would freeze up and get stuck for ten minutes at a time. I was not even worth it we ended up resorting to watching our NBA on Sundays whatever aired on the local station.



Then the death nail for video streaming kicked in, our ISP discovered we were using a Roku and decided they wanted us to use their tv service and shut us off and refuse to let us use the streaming by imposing a 250GB limit on our monthly usage. Hello I am watching NBA games in 720p quality at 3 hours a game I am using that in a week! So we decided to hell with it we switched ISP companies, canceled the Netflix, the hulu, the league pass, and figured if streaming is going to be limted we might as well go back to cable and forget about it. Our new ISP also imposes a 250GB a month limit and streaming movies in HD we would use up our limit in less than a week but since we can watch everything else on cable we kind of screwed ourselves there at least we got a nice sign up deal and discount and netflix was going downhill anyways so a plus there.



The bottom line is this, streaming right now is not the future as long as ISP companies are going to impose limits and devices like Roku and Google TV have such limited compatibility. I had to keep both devices hooked up to switch back and forth because certain video services would play on one but not the other and it was a pain in the ass. I am done for good with streaming, what convenience is there if you need all that hassle of buying a player, signing up for the services, installing the apps and managing your channels, sorry but all this talk of joe sixpack (whatever that means) falling for streaming because of conveniece is a myth, I know more regular joes who have Blu Ray or prefer DVD and cable over streaming it is mostly tech geeks who have streaming devices even people I know who have gaming consoles to their tv and can stream only use it for Netflix and only rarely. My sister just uses it for Blues Clues for her son and only when the cable is out. I don't see too many people running out to buy streaming devices and every store I go to the sales reps don't even know much about it, some stores like Target didn't even know what a Roku was and they were supposed to be selling them.



Blu Ray is far more convenient, you insert movie, wait a few seconds a couple minutes tops and your movie is playing, streaming, unless you have super fast speed your constantly buffering or waiting for it to download first. Not convenient at all.

[bttfiii]

1. physical media will continue to exist for various reasons
2. internet infrastructure has to be so good that streaming is affordable, comes with no lag and contents available immediately. given how download speeds have improved over the last 5 to 10 years, this is not an impossibility.
3. Obviously in order for Blu ray to die, some other better HD media has to come along that is affordable to the mass market
4. Just as physical comic books, newspaper, magazine are still alive, physical media will never die