PS3 Snippet Here...

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Originally Posted by akadkins

That is what I'm trying to point out here - they have a year head start, so shouldn't they be selling less consoles per month that the hot new product, PS3?

No 'doom and gloom' here - just facts. We use this same argument to show why Blu-Ray is going to kill HD-DVD - outselling 2:1 per month and so forth. We can't have it both ways.

I think the PS/3 was made available in bigger quantity earlier, so that that the initial early adopter crowd was satiated. And that it will be the games that will drive the sales going forward.

From a games console war perspective the PS/3 numbers are a disappointing. Although, I'd argue the Wii has taken the wind out of both the next-gen, and shown that gameplay can top the specs.

The original Microsoft estimates were to ship 15 million units by the end of March. They cut that back to 12 million in January. With the worldwide Xbox 360 sales still under 10 million, it may end up being cut back further. In the meantime, the Wii has reached 6.5 million sales, and is on pace to blow past the Xbox 360 in 3-4 months (what will Xbox fans think about that?).

As for the Blu-ray aspects, the PS/3 is still selling LOTS of units, and at nominal BD adoption rates it means the PS/3 alone is adding 2x as many users per month as HD DVD. Even with "lousy" sales. And if games aren't hugely enticing, that actually HELPS movie adoption rates.

Huge PS/3 games -> Lower BD usage % + more PS/3 unit sales -> More overall BD usage

No huge PS/3 games -> Higher BD usage % -> More overall BD usage

It's sort of a no lose situation for Blu-ray. Watch out for Xmas if the $100 price cut comes through.

Gary