March 1-3 box office estimates, Jack the Giant Slayer tanks

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by MovieKing101

I think it will flop because It has to compete with Oz next friday then GI Joe and the Host at the end of the month.

At one point, Oz and The Croods were set to open against each other (they've backed off since), and Jack was set to open BETWEEN them.

After the reshoots got the story stigma'ed as a "troubled" movie, think Warner was set to dump this one in and out of theaters quickly, push the 3D, and hope that action-fantasy March worked for everything. Not high on their agenda, but it can't help either.

[fitprod]

Originally Posted by EricJ

After the reshoots got the story stigma'ed as a "troubled" movie, think Warner was set to dump this one in and out of theaters quickly, push the 3D, and hope that action-fantasy March worked for everything. Not high on their agenda, but it can't help either.

Warner execs are just going... "Only one more disaster until The Hangover III opens." - That pending disaster is The Great Gatsby.

Say all you will about Baz Lurhman's style, it doesn't sell tickets many tickets. If the budget was $130 million for Australia back in 2008, I wonder how bloated this film's budget is.

fitprod

[Blu Titan]

Warner knew it was going to tank hard...They will make it up with Hangover III and specially Man of Steel.

[remake]

Originally Posted by fitprod

Warner execs are just going... "Only one more disaster until The Hangover III opens." - That pending disaster is The Great Gatsby.

Say all you will about Baz Lurhman's style, it doesn't sell tickets many tickets. If the budget was $130 million for Australia back in 2008, I wonder how bloated this film's budget is.

fitprod

Hangover 3 will probably "underperform" as well.

[remake]

The Last Exorcism 2 should've gone straight to video.

I'm still hoping Safe Haven makes more than Die Hard 5 domestically.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by fitprod

Warner execs are just going... "Only one more disaster until The Hangover III opens." - That pending disaster is The Great Gatsby.

And...you're saying Hangover III will be the hit, or the bigger disaster?
(Burt Wonderstone is the wild card, but not a high-profile one)

Warner already KNOWS Gatsby is a disaster, or it would've been out last summer. It's already gotten two delays, and third delay's the funeral.
Refresh my memory, how many release delays did Jack get?

Say all you will about Baz Lurhman's style,

("Three dollars and change"? "Ken Russell Lives"? "Hots for the chiffon"?)

[metaridley]

I like seeing movies bomb. The bigger, the better. Unless of course, I'm fond of the film.

Hypocritical? Maybe. But I think Hollywood deserves a good spanking every now and then.

[fitprod]

Originally Posted by EricJ

And...you're saying Hangover III will be the hit, or the bigger disaster?
(Burt Wonderstone is the wild card, but not a high-profile one)

Hangover III, even if it isn't very good will do fine financially. I can't see it not at least making 3/4 of what Hangover II did, and it actually did better than the original with international box office factored in. (It probably made up whatever the difference there was between budgets and P&M.)

Wonderstone's budget without P&M was $30 million so it wont be a big problem if it misfires.

Warner already KNOWS Gatsby is a disaster, or it would've been out last summer. It's already gotten two delays, and third delay's the funeral.
Refresh my memory, how many release delays did Jack get?

I fully agree... I think Jack was moved twice, but the big one was the delay from last summer.

I wonder if Paramount will use Jack as their reference for expected box office for GI Joe 2, since that was a complete disaster, marketing wise... You don't pull the plug with two weeks to go.

Disney has to be nervous about Oz, just as Dreamworks is with The Croods.

At this point the only sure hit before Iron Man 3 is probably Pain and Gain. I figure Evil Dead and Oblivion are going to be toss ups, everything else being released just doesn't seem appealing at this point.

fitprod

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by fitprod

Hangover III, even if it isn't very good will do fine financially. I can't see it not at least making 3/4 of what Hangover II did, and it actually did better than the original with international box office factored in. (It probably made up whatever the difference there was between budgets and P&M.)

HO2 did a lot worse than a Pirates/Spidey 3 style dive off that first mega-weekend cliff into oblivion, it showed that the "franchise" was too overconfident on too little awareness of what "went right" the first time.
The movie was made for Vegas, and stretching out the same gags by taking them to Asian squalor proved the the first movie was a happy accident of crazy things in the right place.
The best, the best HO3 can hope for is Damage Control, by trying to repair by swapping out talent or taking it too far back to formula to wrap up a trilogy, but it's been marked.

I wonder if Paramount will use Jack as their reference for expected box office for GI Joe 2, since that was a complete disaster, marketing wise... You don't pull the plug with two weeks to go.

Unless you're adding 3D conversion. Which everyone WANTED on a GI Joe movie, but were strangely apathetic about when Jack broadcast it.

At this point the only sure hit before Iron Man 3 is probably Pain and Gain.

(I put P&G in the same category as "Anonymous": Roland Emmerich and Michael Bay both said they were going to take some time off of blockbusters and make one or two inscrutable barking-nuts personal projects to cool down--Emmerich's already done his, and it was screwy enough, but we thought Bay would wimp out, welch on his bet, and just do a TF4.)

[fitprod]

Originally Posted by EricJ

Unless you're adding 3D conversion. Which everyone WANTED on a GI Joe movie, but were strangely apathetic about when Jack broadcast it.

I assume there is sarcasm there, because no one was wanting/asking for a 3D conversion, they just were hyped about the movie. - As soon as it as delayed for the 3D conversion, red flags went off immediately with 95% of the people anticipating the film.

fitprod

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by fitprod

I assume there is sarcasm there, because no one was wanting/asking for a 3D conversion, they just were hyped about the movie. - As soon as it as delayed for the 3D conversion, red flags went off immediately with 95% of the people anticipating the film.

I wanted one. (But then, I wasn't one of the people three years ago bringing rope to the theater to lynch the first movie for reminding them of Transformers 2.) Would've preferred native, but there ya go.
The fact that it was delayed for spring or August was a big red-flag, like the new Die Hard, but I'm keeping an open mind.

From Bryan Singer, Jack earned a disappointing $7.7 million to top the chart, but it was something of a hollow victory.

The Myth of Friday Numbers (don't get too excited when a family-film "tanks" on Friday before the weekend!) strikes again, but the final Sunday numbers aren't much improvement:

1 Jack the Giant Slayer $28M
2 Identity Thief $9.7M
3 21 and Over $9M
4 The Last Exorcism Part II $8M

So, basically, it got the February pre-spring numbers movies get for being the "only" thing to show up that week, and being #1 out of Default, but in terms of profit, it's still not exactly what Warner was pinning their hopes on.
They aimed the movie for Geek-Week March, which now seems to be all month long, as studios don't quite seem to know WHICH particular "magic" spring-break week in March was the one that caused Alice and Clash of the Titans, and whether it was March 1st, 8th, or 15th. (Anything after is the Easter break, and Dreamworks and the other family-CGI entries get first crack at that.)

Well, chalk that one up to experience.

[fitprod]

Originally Posted by EricJ

(I put P&G in the same category as "Anonymous": Roland Emmerich and Michael Bay both said they were going to take some time off of blockbusters and make one or two inscrutable barking-nuts personal projects to cool down--Emmerich's already done his, and it was screwy enough, but we thought Bay would wimp out, welch on his bet, and just do a TF4.)

The difference between Emmerich doing Anonymous and Bay doing Pain and Gain is that Bay is not attempting to create high-art Oscar bait. (Failed Oscar bait in Anonymous' case.)

Pain and Gain also has the advantage of it's cast, Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne Johnson. - Everyone will be looking/expecting a decent action comedy from them after the first quarter tank jobs. - Broken City in Wahlberg's case, and Snitch (mis-marketed, it was more along the lines of Gridiron Gang) and disaster in waiting GI Joe 2. (Probably an un-intention comedy. - I just heard too much from reliable sources I trust...)

fitprod

[movielib]

Originally Posted by fitprod

The difference between Emmerich doing Anonymous and Bay doing Pain and Gain is that Bay is not attempting to create high-art Oscar bait. (Failed Oscar bait in Anonymous' case.)

I didn't get the impression that Anonymous was intended to be Oscar bait.

On the other hand I thought it was entertaining and interesting (in a cinematic sense - I didn't think for a second that the film's premise was in any way serious as history). I think it's an underrated movie.

[JavaJulien]

Originally Posted by fitprod

Disney has to be nervous about Oz, just as Dreamworks is with The Croods.

fitprod

Worst case scenario for Oz, it'll gross like Snow White and the Huntsman did last year, underwhelming domestically but much better world wide. To the very least, it'll return the budget.

Croods though? Save for some massive word of mouth, I think it's pretty much going to flop domestically. The marketing for it has been terrible.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by JavaJulien

Worst case scenario for Oz, it'll gross like Snow White and the Huntsman did last year, underwhelming domestically but much better world wide. To the very least, it'll return the budget.

Like most movies in non-international settings with action scenes and lots of big, colorful CGI production-design, where you don't have to explain the plot in English too deeply.
Oz and Jack have got "Worldwide gross recoups" written all over them.

[Taipan]

Originally Posted by undiscovered

Hangover 3 will probably "underperform" as well.

I hope it bombs, so they will stop with these stoopid films.

[fitprod]

Originally Posted by JavaJulien

Worst case scenario for Oz, it'll gross like Snow White and the Huntsman did last year, underwhelming domestically but much better world wide. To the very least, it'll return the budget.

If they're lucky. If early reviews aren't good, it's in trouble. While it's currently at 70% at rotten tomatoes (10 reviews), that only includes one major trade, which was mediocre.

If it performs like Snow White, it will still be a loss for Disney. The budget is $200 million with out P&M. I'm sure that's around $100 million, so it's going to have to perform like Alice in Wonderland to break even theatrically. (Which had the same production budget, but cost less marketing-wise.)

fitprod