Nielsen VideoScan for week ended April 1

[Merlins]

The latest Nielsen VideoScan numbers from Home Media Magazine as usually:

SI, Blu-ray:HD-DVD
100:77,88

YTD, Blu-ray:HD-DVD
100:43,16

This gives us an estimated weekly sales ratio of 100:52.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...hp?startpage=2

The latest numbers from Nielsen VideoScan are here and this is what they show:

[GasCat]

Thanks for the post. Call me old school, but I hate how they give their numbers.

Would this work for finding a percentage of the market?
(Blu) / (Blu) + (HD-DVD) = (Blu)%

If so then BD is 70 pecent of the market for the year.

[RUR]

Originally Posted by GasCat

If so then BD is 70 pecent of the market for the year.

Approximately, yes. You can follow the bouncing ball in excruciating detail here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...4#post10233744

[Deciazulado]

Drawing a red line into the blu future it still seems like that by around the time the Pirates disc sales show up, the number will be about 2:1 since inception (or 100:50 in their nomemclature)

The monhtly sales average chart is interesting. Seems we're at 3:1 right now

[nhaase]

If you look at page 6, on the "Summer Video Releases," it has 300 slated for an August release. It has nothing format specific, though. PiP better be ready for that, because I do not want to wait for that movie.

[dialog_gvf]

The Digital Bits

Now then... Sony has released to the media a report tracking weekly sales of high-definition packaged media - both HD-DVD and Blu-ray Disc - from 10/1/06 through the week ending 3/18/07. The report, entitled Next Generation Disc Tracking Report, was prepared with sales figures from Nielsen VideoScan. It's the first such detailed sales data we've really seen, featuring graphical breakdowns by format, title and studio, so we wanted to post the document in its entirety for your consideration (and Sony has given us permission to do so). The document is large (over 1MB) and it's in Adobe PDF format. We've posted it on the server in a zip file. Just click on the link above to download it.

It was for March 18, but it is the most comprehensive set of information yet released.

Gary

[Dave]

Blu-ray goes up while hd dvd goes down! I like it!

[cdblu]

i wonder what universal will say when the si numbers give bd a 2:1 advantage?

[phloyd]

With the rough trend that is around 4 weeks away. Of course, trends don't necessarily continue...

[Merlins]

Originally Posted by GasCat

Thanks for the post. Call me old school, but I hate how they give their numbers.

Would this work for finding a percentage of the market?
(Blu) / (Blu) + (HD-DVD) = (Blu)%

If so then BD is 70 pecent of the market for the year.

I think you have it correct but just to be clarify it its actually

(Blu) / ((Blu) + (HD-DVD)) = (Blu)%

Small but important difference

[ProvenFlipper]

That document was really nice to look at. Good to see things like the BD version of Goodfellas outselling the HD-DVD version, albeit only by about a thousand copies, but it was released about 3 months later than the HD-DVD version.

Personally, the volumes are really low, and that can allow for many different things to happen. One could be that it would be rather easy for a neutral studio like Paramount to go blu. They wouldn't be missing out on a ton of sales on the HD-DVD side, and many of the HD-DVD owners are dual-format owners anyways, so they would still give Paramount the sale. I think this scenario is more likely to happen than Universal going neutral anytime soon. It's amazing that it seems like the studios like Warner and Universal want this format war. It can't be generating that much revenue and they have to realize that there are tons of people who are holding out in hopes for a single format. Once there is a clear winner, then the studios and hardware suppliers will make much more money than they currently are.

[dialog_gvf]

People are extrapolating the weekly sales from the recent data and came up with these numbers:

March 18 - BD: 65,722K HD DVD: 14,743K (from the Sony data) - >4:1
March 25 - BD: 62K HD DVD: 10K - 6:1
April 1 - BD: 66K HD DVD: 35K - < 2:1

Gary

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by ProvenFlipper

Good to see things like the BD version of Goodfellas outselling the HD-DVD version, albeit only by about a thousand copies, but it was released about 3 months later than the HD-DVD version.

Imagine what the numbers would be for Batman Begins if it were to be released on BD.

[Scorxpion]

YES this is true imagine if Batman Begins released on BD.Hopefully Warner are hearing us

[GasCat]

Originally Posted by Merlins

I think you have it correct but just to be clarify it its actually

(Blu) / ((Blu) + (HD-DVD)) = (Blu)%

Small but important difference

Ahh, thanks. 70% to 30% sounds much more devastating. Unfortunately we are only up to the first quarter of the year.

[theknub]

Originally Posted by GasCat

Ahh, thanks. 70% to 30% sounds much more devastating. Unfortunately we are only up to the first quarter of the year.

or fortunately, imagine end of year sales...

[Damon Payne]

With Pirates, Cars, etc. I expect Q2 sales to move closer to 3:1; some good exlcusive Q3 and Q4 titles could make it 4:1 or 5:1 by the end of the year.

[nhaase]

Just remember they have Matrix and Bourne this summer. For BD, getting the Warners backlogs (Batman, V, Matrix) will be just almost as good as getting exclusives.

[Ascended_Saiyan]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

With Pirates, Cars, etc. I expect Q2 sales to move closer to 3:1; some good exlcusive Q3 and Q4 titles could make it 4:1 or 5:1 by the end of the year.

I believe a constant 4:1 or 5:1 by the end of the year would force Universal to go neutral at CES 2008.

[Chris Gerhard]

Meaningful comparisons should be made in the coming months since for whatever reason, the HD DVD group did not release much the first quarter. The Universal announced 100 titles for 2007 are supposedly going to be coming rapidly now and I am afraid we will see the breakdown go to about 55% - 45% in favor of Blu-ray for the second quarter, and if the Universal titles sell well why would they change? I don't know why they are exclusively HD DVD to begin with. If they didn't go neutral after the first quarter, they aren't going neutral after the second quarter if the race gets a little closer. I hope something happens soon, but I am not as optimistic as you guys are.

Chris