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#1 | ||
Special Member
Aug 2007
3rd Rock from the Sun
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10 reasons why nothing better then Blu-Ray is coming before 2050: 1) Transition from VHS/Laserdisc to DVD happened because: -there had to be a transition from ANALOG to DIGITAL (both VHS & Laserdisc were analog formats) -there had to be a transition to a more portable practical format (as opposed to huge ass Laserdisc and clunky VHS cassettes). 2) Transition from DVD to Blu-Ray had to happen because of the new broadcast standard that is HDTV 3) There are NO MORE valid reasons to transition to another format now 4) The next valid reason will ONLY happen when a new broadcast standard is established in North America and we are barely at the infancy of the HDTV era. 5) The next broadcast standard is Super Hi-Vision (8K) and is NOT coming until 2040-2050 (in North America). 6) DOWNLOADS ARE NOT THE FUTURE! By the time downloads even become somewhat mainstream, Blu-Ray will have such an overwhelming presence and be so inexpensive that it will not be threatened by crappy quality downloads. By the time the quality of downloads reaches Blu-Ray quality (audio & video) Blu-Ray will simply SHARE a market with downloads (IMHO the VAST majority of the population will and ALWAYS will prefer a physicall format). 7) TV's in peoples homes are going to be 2K (1920 X 1080) for a very VERY long time. There is absolutely NO REASON for the masses to change their HDTV's until a new higher end broadcast standard is established. 8) The previous broadcast standard was established in 1950 and is still going strong today even though HDTV was introduced in 1998. Quote:
10) DVD's have been around for 10 years and will last another 10 until COMPLETELY being replaced by Blu-Ray. With Blu-Ray around as the highest quality form of movie media for the next 40 years, I believe it will take an additional 20 years for it to go away even after the introduction of something better... 2050 + 20 = 2070... making the lifespan of Blu-Ray 60+ years ![]() P.S. Movie studios will still find ways to make you spend your money with 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th editions Super, Duper, Magical, Extended, Director's Cut & The Son of the Director's cut editions ![]() ![]() ![]() The next media based movie format should deliver this: 1) Lossless Video 2) 4:4:4 (NO chroma subsampling) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YUV_4:2:0#4:2:0 3) xvYCC color space (30 million colors --> 1.8 times more then RGB) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XvYCC 4) 48bit color depth (16bit per color) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Color 5) Super Hi-Vision 8K resolution (7680 X 4320) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Hi-Vision 6) I'm good with 7.1 Lossless audio but Super Hi-Vision has 22.2 audio http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/22.2 |
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#2 | |
Junior Member
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As far as dissing downloads, I just switched to comcast "16 BLAST" or whatever they call it, and i consistently, here and now in 2008, get 28+Mbps download and 2.8Mbps upload. That means downloading a typical blu-ray source almost in real time. or a starting delay of a couple of minutes of buffering. I can download an entire dual-layer DVD in less than an hour. Downloading will win, eventually. And IP Multicast will lead the way. I love Blu-ray, but in the end, it's still sneakernet. |
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#3 |
Active Member
Oct 2007
Nova Scotia, Canada
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By the time 1440 comes around they will probably skip it and jump to the next level, besides with the advancement in compression engineering by that time, video will look even better on many new titles than even the best ones we have now, so there will be little improvement visually with 1440 and higher unless you have a large theatre to tell any difference.
Right now the BDA have to sell the concept and technology of 1080p to consumers to compete with DVD, which in time will happen as we are starting to already see. However, I think it will be a harder sell for the next generation in 10 years time. |
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#4 | |
Member
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There is already a reason for the people to upgrade and have their sets 3d compatible. With the sudden huge interest in 3d films. James Cameron's new film Avatar is entirely 3d and MASS amounts of people are going to want to have that experience in their homes. Thousands of theaters across the country have already been prepped for 3d. And 8k is not next... 4k is and it looks a whole lot better than 2k. Also theaters output at about 250mbs so the next logical step would be a format that does this as well (or even half of this would be a great deal better). Right now bluray is not even close to this, especially with titles like Predator running at around 20mbs. Now whether or not a mass amount of people are going to want this is questionable, but only time will tell. Nothing is certain. Lastly why should we ever settle for less? Why not push the industry to keep advancing and give us the best they possibly can? I mean they can start by making all titles 50gig discs. ![]() Anyways we can agree on one thing, at least we love bluray. Enough to talk about it... a lot. Last edited by Gavin Von Karls; 04-02-2008 at 05:28 PM. |
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#5 | ||||||
Special Member
Aug 2007
3rd Rock from the Sun
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Sorry I couldn't respond earlier...
Now that I'm back with a nice golden tan from my "Vacation"... ![]() ...for putting some weasel in his place: ![]() I can now address what you wrote: Quote:
![]() That's not to say movie and home theater buffs like us would be pleased... far from it: I'll be the first to applaud if something of higher quality comes along sooner rather than later but, I'm being realistic about it and, for reasons outlined earlier in this post: https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...&postcount=129 I'm certain we won't see anything superior to Blu-Ray before approx 2050. That's not to say movie studios won't try to sell you the same content in different containers (HD downloads, HD VOD, ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Quote:
![]() 3D is an experience meant for GINORMOUS screens like IMAX. Talented engineers might be able to successfully improve on what I consider and old and "already done that" concept but, IMHO, this is simply a "ploy" to try to differentiate the large movie theater going experience from the ever improving domestic living room home theaters and, ultimately (IMHO), will be soon forgotten when movie theaters concentrate on the ONLY thing that will make me start going back to the movie theaters more regularly: 4K Digital Cinema. Considering that insiders have mentioned that the "real life" resolution of the current analog movie theater experience averages out at 1K due to too many variables in the equation... 4K DIGITAL will be a HUGE improvement and one that is repeatable 100% of the time EVERY time ![]() Quote:
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It doesn't mean that a couple of crazy's like you and me would buy it that the masses would... they simply wouldn't. A format that doesn't have a prayer of a chance to be accepted by the masses will simply not see the light of day (or even be considered for that matter). Quote:
Joe 6 Pack's ![]() and the all mighty dollar... CE companies and Movie studios wanting to make this... not lose this: ![]() You can attempt to push all you want... you will simply be hitting a ![]() Buy 200 million 4K displays and distribute them amongst North Americans and we might get a new 4K format... other then that you (and I) are SOL ![]() ![]() ![]() P.S. Again, THIS (below) is what I want for the next movie format... but I KNOW it just not going to happen before approx 2050 The next media based movie format (hopefully): 1) Lossless Video 2) 4:4:4 (NO chroma subsampling) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YUV_4:2:0#4:2:0 3) xvYCC color space (30 million colors --> 1.8 times more then RGB) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XvYCC 4) 48bit color depth (16bit per color) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Color 5) Super Hi-Vision 8K resolution (7680 X 4320) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Hi-Vision 6) I'm good with 7.1 Lossless audio but Super Hi-Vision has 22.2 audio http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/22.2 Last edited by unreal1080p; 04-05-2008 at 10:59 AM. |
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#7 |
Special Member
Aug 2007
3rd Rock from the Sun
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#8 | |
Moderator
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xvYCC should be possible on Blu-ray if the spec is ammended to allow a flag. It's supposed to be backward compatible. In most areas of free enterprise there are offerings for the general consumer, and premium offerings for others. Why is home video the exception? Gary Last edited by dialog_gvf; 04-05-2008 at 03:12 PM. |
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#9 | ||
Special Member
Aug 2007
3rd Rock from the Sun
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By that I mean another 1920 X 1080 format with an improved color palete (xvYCC) and an improved color bit depth (16bit). This would be a great format for you and me but the VAST majority of consummers would either: A) not care or B) not be able to see the difference or C) not have or be able to afford the equipment required to be able to see the diffence Anyway you slice it we are NOT going to get another 1920 X 1080 format (IMHO) and we will have to wait until the next broadcast standard is established (8K Super Hi-Vision) and once again we are talking approx the half way point of the century (2050) ![]() P.S. xvYcc for movie encodes will NOT be possible on Blu-Ray as an improved color bit depth (10, 12 or 16 bit) is necessary in order to accomodate the increased color palette of xvYCC (see the wikepedia links in my previous post... it's all explained in there). There is NO way that Blu-Ray's limited 40mbps maximum video bitrate can accomodate for this... it's simply not possible (I trully wish it were... but it's not ![]() Quote:
Last edited by unreal1080p; 04-06-2008 at 05:35 AM. |
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#10 | |
Power Member
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#11 | |
Special Member
Aug 2007
3rd Rock from the Sun
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![]() ![]() ![]() P.S. As for shutting me up... in case you haven't noticed... the internet is a free country and I'll express my opinions whenever the hell I feel like it ![]() ![]() Last edited by unreal1080p; 04-06-2008 at 04:57 AM. |
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#12 | |
Blu-ray Insider
Jan 2007
Milpitas, CA, USA
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#13 | ||
Special Member
Aug 2007
3rd Rock from the Sun
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Deep Color bit depth (10, 12 or 16 bit) should be used for wider color gamuts (xvYCC) in order to avoid posterization and color banding. THIS is the whole point for HDMI 1.3 ... which allows for sufficient bandwidth to pass 10, 12 or 16 bit Deep Color (as opposed to previous versions of HDMI). They definitely seem to go hand in hand to me... unless i'm missing something here ![]() Last edited by unreal1080p; 04-06-2008 at 05:44 AM. |
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#14 | |
Member
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![]() ![]() Last edited by Gavin Von Karls; 04-05-2008 at 10:40 PM. |
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