Two very interesting new studies on BD by research firms

[Grubert]

Indeed, Screen Digest has a linear model in place:





This comes from the report on the PEVE 2008 conference, where concerns on replication (and letting smaller replicators get a piece of the action), licensing and other stuff were discussed. It's an interesting read.

The perennial online-vs-physical delivery debate seems to have entered a more serene phase, owing principally to the recognition – by the online prophets – that packaged media is still an enormous business – $70 billion worldwide, servicing an installed base of 1.3 billion DVD playback devices – and that online digital delivery revenues are still minuscule. Screen Digest forecasts that they will account for just four per cent of movie spending in the US and Europe by 2012.

Sonic’s Taylor reckons that, while inexorably heading thist way, delivering high-definition content without physical media “might still be 20 years into the future.” There is not yet consumer-friendly methods of delivering quality content over the internet on a on-demand basis “unless you are not very demanding,” Taylor quips. Internet speed, price of blank BD disc, burning time, DRM constraints, cross-device standards, all conjure up to make a physical-free entertainment world far off the horizon.

Simon Calver, CEO of LoveFilm International, sounded a note of warning as he reminded delegates that "free is the price point people want to pay online" and stressed that in the intensely competitive digital delivery space heavyweight consumer brands will have a substantial advantage.

It is a time of experimentation. Recent moves to include 'digital copy' (also known as 'second session') electronic movie files on DVDs were welcomed as introducing traditional DVD buyers to an easy – and, crucially, legal - way to access digital content. The continuing fragmentation of the digital marketplace remains a barrier to progress, although the increasing willingness of the Hollywood studios to experiment with different business models is a positive development.

“BD will replace DVD. It will be the last mainstream physical delivery format,” forecasts Taylor.