Physical media survival with streaming incentives?

[Suntory_Times]

Originally Posted by mredman

They are saying that stuff because they wanna advertise the new stuff. Just like a network station like CBS for example wanna promote their new dramas. Its not like they forget they got big old hits that are pulling great numbers for them either. This is the same thing here. Phyisical is monster for studios that sell in billion of dollars. It even rose last years Black Frida and christmas shopping. Its not going away

But if they could move away and into digital they would as it is far more lucrative. Just look at pc gaming now vs 10 years ago.

[fitprod]

Originally Posted by Suntory_Times

But if they could move away and into digital they would as it is far more lucrative. Just look at pc gaming now vs 10 years ago.

Well digital may look more lucrative, but that would be only as a rental format. (And honestly that hinges heavily on being able to leverage their content to rental services that will eventually go, "F-U, we not paying that much anymore because it's not helping us grow... And we backed ourselves into a corner with $7.99 all you can eat rentals, and can't generate any more revenue.")

Digital as an ownership format will get a small foothold, but much like the record industry, the overall sales of product are going to eventually collapse. Most studios are trying to license their product to 3rd parties for physical distribution. (Just like in the "old" days with laserdisc.)

Disney and Warner are testing the waters for some stuff they don't believe will sell at retail, by selling directly through to consumers via the Disney Movie Club and Warner Archives, respectively. I honestly really respect these efforts, because they are trying something different since chains like Wal*Mart, Target and Best Buy have visions of getting out of physical media completely. (Not a big deal in Best Buy's case since they'll probably be going the way of Circuit City by 2016.)

Studios like Paramount, Fox, Sony and Lionsgate are probably going to look at something like this down the road. (I can't explain why Sony isn't already, since they have the complete infrastructure. You would think they could do it.)

Blu-ray, and probably DVD, will exist in the future, but it's going to become the niche market, like the small but growing LP market that has oddly risen from the dead over the past decade. Physical media will still exist for movies, but it will be a much smaller piece of the income pie, and will continue it's downward trajectory.

fitprod

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by fitprod

Well digital may look more lucrative, but that would be only as a rental format. (And honestly that hinges heavily on being able to leverage their content to rental services that will eventually go, "F-U, we not paying that much anymore because it's not helping us grow... And we backed ourselves into a corner with $7.99 all you can eat rentals, and can't generate any more revenue.")

Digital as an ownership format will get a small foothold, but much like the record industry, the overall sales of product are going to eventually collapse. Most studios are trying to license their product to 3rd parties for physical distribution. (Just like in the "old" days with laserdisc.)

Disney and Warner are testing the waters for some stuff they don't believe will sell at retail, by selling directly through to consumers via the Disney Movie Club and Warner Archives, respectively. I honestly really respect these efforts, because they are trying something different since chains like Wal*Mart, Target and Best Buy have visions of getting out of physical media completely. (Not a big deal in Best Buy's case since they'll probably be going the way of Circuit City by 2016.)

Studios like Paramount, Fox, Sony and Lionsgate are probably going to look at something like this down the road. (I can't explain why Sony isn't already, since they have the complete infrastructure. You would think they could do it.)

Blu-ray, and probably DVD, will exist in the future, but it's going to become the niche market, like the small but growing LP market that has oddly risen from the dead over the past decade. Physical media will still exist for movies, but it will be a much smaller piece of the income pie, and will continue it's downward trajectory.

fitprod

$7.99 for all you can eat rentals? People say I'm outlandish but imo that won't happen. If people could rent any film they wanted and as many each month that would kill off any sell-through market in the world. It would cost a great deal more than the price you mentioned. At least $15. That would still be a popular choice though. Screw quality for the masses they want their bargains in good old SD!

If you mean Netflix, that is not all you can eat rentals, that is the corner of the video store with the films no one wants to rent (plus a handful of decent, modern titles) imo and they are not rented its a subscription.

I agree about digital EST collapsing. I see it going that way.

[fitprod]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

If you mean Netflix, that is not all you can eat rentals, that is the corner of the video store with the films no one wants to rent (plus a handful of decent, modern titles) imo and they are not rented its a subscription.

Subscription/Rental... The average consumer doesn't care, it's the same thing to them. (Even with the fact that Netflix doesn't really have any films now...) At least in the US, they've grown accustomed to this concept of $7.99 all you can eat.

Much like when the studios signed the deals with the devil (Wal*Mart), and slashed and burned their DVD product to get it stocked, now it's at the point that it no longer has any value... They let the genie out of the bottle and there's no putting it back. (Just read the multiple posts in these forum when a title isn't available for less than $15.)

The studios are starting to set up their own subscription/rental websites to compete with Netflix, but now you're getting into the tricky area of how many monthly rental/subscriptions are consumer willing to put up with. The average US consumer want cheap and all in one place.

Hell they already tired once with the joint venture of Hulu, and they haven't been able find anyone who will buy the company off of them. (They've tried at least three times that I know of...)

fitprod

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by fitprod

Subscription/Rental... The average consumer doesn't care, it's the same thing to them. (Even with the fact that Netflix doesn't really have any films now...) At least in the US, they've grown accustomed to this concept of $7.99 all you can eat.

Much like when the studios signed the deals with the devil (Wal*Mart), and slashed and burned their DVD product to get it stocked, now it's at the point that it no longer has any value... They let the genie out of the bottle and there's no putting it back. (Just read the multiple posts in these forum when a title isn't available for less than $15.)

The studios are starting to set up their own subscription/rental websites to compete with Netflix, but now you're getting into the tricky area of how many monthly rental/subscriptions are consumer willing to put up with. The average US consumer want cheap and all in one place.

Hell they already tired once with the joint venture of Hulu, and they haven't been able find anyone who will buy the company off of them. (They've tried at least three times that I know of...)

fitprod

Yep, the multiple services point you made is pretty much what I have stated for a while. Lets say you want walking dead? That will be Fox. Ssy you want a netflix exclusive or sport? Maybe you want HBO? Before too long you pay the same as a cable subscription.

[lifepawn]

I believe Disney has a history of putting movie home video releases on moratorium for several years by vaulting them. They could test the digital waters by, for example, vaulting a few popular movies except make them still digitally available. This way they can check out how well the movies sell digital until they eventually bring out new limited edition discs as usual. I can't imagine they'd count it as a loss of sales if they were going to vault the films anyways. If digital does well enough that it lowers demand too much to be worth re-releasing the discs they'll have their answer. Otherwise no real harm done as its pretty much how they do business anyways.

[Steedeel]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...0I324A20141014

We should be more concerned about tv surviving with tablets, phones and smartwatches coming. Check out the comments by the director of Fury. Exactly what I fear happening with movies on mobile devices becoming the preferred way to consume movies.