Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Greyman]

Originally Posted by master gandhi

What kind of interview? Will it be published/posted somewhere official or just on this forum?

Originally Posted by zucchinie

Anybody received an email from Vudu asking for a 30 phone Q&A? They offer $75 for it!

.

[Fiffy]

Originally Posted by tele1962

Still no answer on this one from the Download fans. I guess unless it's the latest Avengers film it really does not matter.

If you expect an answer perhaps you should explain what you mean. You claim without any source or evidence that large studios "will not [...] invest in older titles getting the love and attention that the independent labels give many of their releases". I guess the implication is supposed to be that independent labels don't care about digital distribution?

If so, both of your claims are contradicted by reality. The major studios absolutely put a lot of money (often more than independents can afford) in restoring and mastering their major catalog titles (just think about classics like Lawrence of Arabia). And there is no evidence at all that this will stop as physical media decline further, since these efforts were never made just for BD releases.

And independent labels are absolutely active in the digital distribution market and sometimes even favor it (e.g. Criterion has released a number of titles digitally but not on BD). They are in fact the ones who benefit most from digital, since the lower distribution cost justify releasing titles with a smaller audience that wouldn't be profitable on physical media.

[randian]

Criterion doesn't seem to release digitally if there's an existing digital release from a prior studio, even if Criterion did a restoration job for the blu-ray. For example, 12 Angry Men.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by Fiffy

If you expect an answer perhaps you should explain what you mean. You claim without any source or evidence that large studios "will not [...] invest in older titles getting the love and attention that the independent labels give many of their releases". I guess the implication is supposed to be that independent labels don't care about digital distribution?

The majority of digital's income comes from subscription services. I don't think any studios (large or small) would think an expensive restoration for an individual movie would be worth it when they aren't focused on selling movies individually.

[veritas]

I would like to see how digital would do if they gave blu ray the exclusive 1 month early release over digital.

Seriously though studios are supporting digital but do they have any clue how they are going to push products in stores and at home. Everybody cut cable so ads are gone their they don't do ads on digital copies so you cant advertise their and you cant have stores like best buy advertising with shelf space if you kill off physical media. The end game isn't pretty for this just look at the book market.

Pinocchio came out today in digital and 90% of people wont notice till after the 30th when the movie starts showing up in stores. Basically their is a positive utility to physical goods existing that I don't see what studios can do to replace it without losing that positive utility.

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

The majority of digital's income comes from subscription services.

Which for the most part isn't new income or income from physical medias part of the pie its simply the cable company's hemorrhaging customers.

Originally Posted by alchav21

I know Master, I just like to Tweak these Disc Lovers so I kind of Embellish the information I have. Vudu has contacted me for an Interview, maybe they have seen my Postings. I remember a statistical class I took in College, and you can do so many things with the right Stats. I love Streaming Video, and I know it's going to be the way of the Future. First Run Movies right to your Home Theater!

Embellish is a touch light more like flat out tell false hoods like vudu = blu ray. Lets put it this way if vudu tried to say the stuff you spout out in an ad they would get sued for false advertising.

[Zu Nim]

Originally Posted by veritas

Seriously though studios are supporting digital but do they have any clue how they are going to push products in stores and at home. Everybody cut cable so ads are gone their they don't do ads on digital copies so you cant advertise their and you cant have stores like best buy advertising with shelf space if you kill off physical media. The end game isn't pretty for this just look at the book market.

I see movies advertised all the time. Product in stores can function as an advertisement but if you left the store without the movie the ad failed. Anyway, they're selling preorder cards for digital movies in stores and they take up less shelf space.

They'll innovate and figure it out because physical sales get hammered each and every year. Final numbers are in for 2016: Physical sales dropped another 9.5% to under $5.5B. EST is up almost 5.5% to $2B. Their problem is subscription, which is eating the physical sales and rental money.

Pinocchio came out today in digital and 90% of people wont notice till after the 30th when the movie starts showing up in stores. Basically their is a positive utility to physical goods existing that I don't see what studios can do to replace it without losing that positive utility.

90% of people won't notice Pinocchio ever. It's not like the throngs are visiting big box stores to check out movies. I can go months without even visiting a big box store and I'm not usually wandering the aisles when I do. My Walmarts don't carry much physical media these days either. The closest has two shelves and a DVD bin.

Which for the most part isn't new income or income from physical medias part of the pie its simply the cable company's hemorrhaging customers.

Nope. Cable's not hemorrhaging. Numbers for 2016.

Physical sales: Down $580M
Physical rental: Down $535M (stores, subscription, and kiosks)
Cable revenue: Down $250M (estimated in another post from market research)
EST: Up $100M
VOD: Up $110M
Subscription: Up $1.15B

When you add it up that's $1.365B down with physical and cable and $1.36B up for digital. Nice symmetry. U.S. home video entertainment has been mostly a zero sum game for years.

And as noted recently, viewers aren't that discriminating. Netflix's catalog has been shrinking because it seems no matter what's there, their customers spend 1/3 of their time watching movies. Some people may have discovered that first-run movies are less important to them than limited film catalogs and first-run TV.

[veritas]

Originally Posted by Zu Nim

Nope. Cable's not hemorrhaging.

Cable revenue: Down $250M (estimated in another post from market

Cable is down 800k subscribers in a year (or down 1.6 million if you exclude sling tv a cheaper substitute that is not exactly the same catagory as cable) which works out to around a billion dollars if they only got 10$ in revenue per month per subscriber which we know is way higher. if cable companies had not raised prices on its remaining customers to compensate for most of it the lost revenue would be way higher. Raising prices will also only accelerate the fall in subscribers to cable and I expect the number of lost subscribers will only be higher this year because of it and the changing times in general.

In other words comcast took way more then $250m in lost revenue but it takes time for people to adjust/notice the raise in subscription plans that are mostly auto renewing (people in this sort of situation are price inelastic short term but much more price elastic given time to find substitutes). In the short term raising prices helped shore up the books but in the long term cable will hemorrhage even more subscribers till they cant make it up by gouging the remaining ones.

[WOODMO]

I began selling my Blu Ray collection. I have movies I really like on iTunes and whatever else I can watch on HBO, Netflix, Kodi, etc. I also won't be buying anything in 4K on a physical level, I just found myself buying the BluRays to buy them, but I was seldom watching anything from a disc.

[Mr Kite]

Originally Posted by alchav21

I know Master, I just like to Tweak these Disc Lovers so I kind of Embellish the information I have. Vudu has contacted me for an Interview, maybe they have seen my Postings. I remember a statistical class I took in College, and you can do so many things with the right Stats. I love Streaming Video, and I know it's going to be the way of the Future. First Run Movies right to your Home Theater!

Alchav i have noticed yoi have for some time now carefuly ignored my question. Why is that, if streaming is the future as you claim?

[mike568]

Originally Posted by veritas

Cable is down 800k subscribers in a year (or down 1.6 million if you exclude sling tv a cheaper substitute that is not exactly the same catagory as cable) which works out to around a billion dollars if they only got 10$ in revenue per month per subscriber which we know is way higher. if cable companies had not raised prices on its remaining customers to compensate for most of it the lost revenue would be way higher. Raising prices will also only accelerate the fall in subscribers to cable and I expect the number of lost subscribers will only be higher this year because of it and the changing times in general.

In other words comcast took way more then $250m in lost revenue but it takes time for people to adjust/notice the raise in subscription plans that are mostly auto renewing (people in this sort of situation are price inelastic short term but much more price elastic given time to find substitutes). In the short term raising prices helped shore up the books but in the long term cable will hemorrhage even more subscribers till they cant make it up by gouging the remaining ones.

The biggest problem with Spectrum (Charter) is the UI and performance of the HD receiver and HD DVR reminds of the early 2000's. The other problem is requiring home phone service to get a cheaper plan. Who needs home service in 2017 if you don't have kids? Everybody that lives here has wifi calling on their phone as a backup to the cell network.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by veritas

Cable is down 800k subscribers in a year (or down 1.6 million if you exclude sling tv a cheaper substitute that is not exactly the same catagory as cable) which works out to around a billion dollars if they only got 10$ in revenue per month per subscriber which we know is way higher. if cable companies had not raised prices on its remaining customers to compensate for most of it the lost revenue would be way higher. Raising prices will also only accelerate the fall in subscribers to cable and I expect the number of lost subscribers will only be higher this year because of it and the changing times in general.

In other words comcast took way more then $250m in lost revenue but it takes time for people to adjust/notice the raise in subscription plans that are mostly auto renewing (people in this sort of situation are price inelastic short term but much more price elastic given time to find substitutes). In the short term raising prices helped shore up the books but in the long term cable will hemorrhage even more subscribers till they cant make it up by gouging the remaining ones.

Plus that doesn't even include all the lost money from advertising revenue. Since televisions inception the majority of income is made from advertising. If a large number of customers switch to streaming subscription services without ads that will mean billions of dollars lost.

[whipnet]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

Plus that doesn't even include all the lost money from advertising revenue. Since televisions inception the majority of income is made from advertising. If a large number of customers switch to streaming subscription services without ads that will mean billions of dollars lost.

We cut the cord in 2007 when my son was 5. He would wake us up out of bed to show us something on TV that he wanted. And he wanted everything he saw on TV. When we dropped cable and went to streaming only that completely disappeared.

So thanks to Netflix really for offering it's subscribers the ability to stream movies at no additional charge. I was already more than done with cable back then.

Now Comcast has caps, so they are going to try to squeeze people like me and to recoup some of that lost revenue.

[Zu Nim]

Originally Posted by veritas

Cable is down 800k subscribers in a year (or down 1.6 million if you exclude sling tv a cheaper substitute that is not exactly the same catagory as cable) which works out to around a billion dollars if they only got 10$ in revenue per month per subscriber which we know is way higher.

800k video subscribers divided by $250M is $26/mo. Those cord cutters still need Internet so it's not like their bills disappear. Broadband subscribers continue to grow. Also, Internet alone costs more than when it's in a double- or triple-play package. I went back to cable myself recently because it was a better deal than Internet+antenna. Trying to extrapolate revenue trends from a simple subscriber count is naive. I have more faith in people getting paid to research these things, the ones who pore over SEC filings and have relationships with industry contacts.

And cord cutters tend to be lower income and have lower bills to start with. Pay-TV operators ditching lower-income customers, driving up average revenue per sub, analyst finds (over a year old but still relevant) The press release that goes along with that article also indicates the higher ARPU for the remaining subscribers. US Pay TV Subscribers Decline by 479,000 in 2Q15, but Average Revenue per User is up, says Strategy Analytics

In the debate over physical vs. digital there it's suggested that the disc market will be 14% of spending in Britain in about 4 years. That's down from 86% of spending 6 years ago. The lion's share is moving to subscription. It's not coming from cable.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by alchav21

I know Master, I just like to Tweak these Disc Lovers so I kind of Embellish the information I have. Vudu has contacted me for an Interview, maybe they have seen my Postings. I remember a statistical class I took in College, and you can do so many things with the right Stats. I love Streaming Video, and I know it's going to be the way of the Future. First Run Movies right to your Home Theater!

Originally Posted by tele1962

Alchav i have noticed yoi have for some time now carefuly ignored my question. Why is that, if streaming is the future as you claim?

I have answered your question, you just don't listen. When I say it's all Digital, I mean it's all Digital. You do know that Blu-ray and UHD Discs are Storage Media, and your Blu-ray Player Streams the Video File to your HDTV much the same way Streaming Digital Video is shown. There are Master Digital Files that these Discs and Digital Video are made from. These Master Files are used to make both Discs and Digital HD, so if the Master is of poor quality then both Disc and Digital HD will be poor quality.

[flyry]

I used to think HDX was pretty comparable but after watching Being John Malkovich criterion blu the other day and then switching to TDKR hdx it looked awful

[Yumbo]

ITunes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Commoodle]

Well apple just closed my iTunes account because of a problem with my Hulu subscription. I forgot to put more money on the card I use with iTunes and it appears for the last 3 months my account has still be charged and put into account debt instead of just cancelling . I didn't realize this was happening because I couldn't watch anything on Hulu (when I went on the site it promoted me to start free trial) so I thought it had been canceled. Just got the email today from Apple stating they are terminating my iTunes account from the unpaid debt. I've now lost the 120+ movies I've purchased on there and some TV seasons. Downloading my purchases is not an option either as I get an error when I attempt to. I've attempted to explain to Apple the mistake but to no avil. Kinda worries me how easily they were able to take away my complete collection.

Oh well, back to Blu-rays for me.

[Yumbo]

Originally Posted by Commoodle

Well apple just closed my iTunes account because of a problem with my Hulu subscription. I forgot to put more money on the card I use with iTunes and it appears for the last 3 months my account has still be charged and put into account debt instead of just cancelling . I didn't realize this was happening because I couldn't watch anything on Hulu (when I went on the site it promoted me to start free trial) so I thought it had been canceled. Just got the email today from Apple stating they are terminating my iTunes account from the unpaid debt. I've now lost the 120+ movies I've purchased on there and some TV seasons. Downloading my purchases is not an option either as I get an error when I attempt to. I've attempted to explain to Apple the mistake but to no avil. Kinda worries me how easily they were able to take away my complete collection.



Oh well, back to Blu-rays for me.

You can simply pay the difference.
Closing account would be for a more serious reason.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mr Kite]

Originally Posted by alchav21

I have answered your question, you just don't listen. When I say it's all Digital, I mean it's all Digital. You do know that Blu-ray and UHD Discs are Storage Media, and your Blu-ray Player Streams the Video File to your HDTV much the same way Streaming Digital Video is shown. There are Master Digital Files that these Discs and Digital Video are made from. These Master Files are used to make both Discs and Digital HD, so if the Master is of poor quality then both Disc and Digital HD will be poor quality.

No you havn"t. Again you giving a load of fluff and whaffle. My question was what will happen to independent labels performing restoration of of film for superior physical formats. Do you really think these streaming companys will really make any investment in doing so. If you would kindly answer the question that you are continuing to avoid.

Ps
Yes it is all digital but how that digital signal is manipulated can make a massive difference, which is what you fail to understand.
http://hometheaterreview.com/why-blu...reaming-today/

[Mr Kite]

Originally Posted by Fiffy

If you expect an answer perhaps you should explain what you mean. You claim without any source or evidence that large studios "will not [...] invest in older titles getting the love and attention that the independent labels give many of their releases". I guess the implication is supposed to be that independent labels don't care about digital distribution?

If so, both of your claims are contradicted by reality. The major studios absolutely put a lot of money (often more than independents can afford) in restoring and mastering their major catalog titles (just think about classics like Lawrence of Arabia). And there is no evidence at all that this will stop as physical media decline further, since these efforts were never made just for BD releases.

And independent labels are absolutely active in the digital distribution market and sometimes even favor it (e.g. Criterion has released a number of titles digitally but not on BD). They are in fact the ones who benefit most from digital, since the lower distribution cost justify releasing titles with a smaller audience that wouldn't be profitable on physical media.

I am talking more niche releases. Of course large studios provide remastered titles but how those titles are then handled can make a difference. Do you honestly think the likes of Netflix are going to invest in a restoration of say Zombie Flesheaters, or Suspira. I think not?