2013 Oscar Discussion Discussion Thread

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by Adam_ME

You sure about that? It's either Lawrence or Chastain I guess, but the latter has gotten a lot of run for her performance. She nearly won the Oscar for The Help a few years ago, so she's got the makeup factor going for her. She's a lot older than Lawrence which means she may not have as many opportunities to win, so that could work in her favor with voters. And she's a chick in a male-dominated movie(and genre) which might impress the Academy.

You are giving way too much credit to the Academy voters. Forward thinking is not something that I would use to describe them.

The way I see it, if voters are going for the novelty factor, they go for the very old or the very young, so they cancel each other out. That leaves Lawrence and Chastain. Zero Dark Thirty took a big hit today and is probably out of the major conversation so it probably wont receive much of an awards campaign. That leaves Sony competing with Weinstein for best actress.

I would love to see Chastain win, but historical precedence tells me otherwise.

[GC Riot]

No Fassbender
No Cloud Atlas

No idea why I even care any longer

[movieman1979]

Originally Posted by filmczy

Sorry Ben Ben...not this time...

Honestly, if I were Ben Affleck (emphasis on the word "IF"), I would see that after all the highs and lows the past ten years have brought me (lest we forget that a decade ago, the dude was headlining 'Gigli'..) I've been lucky enough to reinvent myself as a great director and second chanced leading man, directing not one, not two, but THREE critically acclaimed movies in a row, the third of which is now nominated for Best Picture. Yes, the directing snub sucks, but the picture can stand as a testament to the talent behind the camera as well as in front.

[TheHighRoller]

I think Bigelow will win Best Picture this year. And Les Miserables will win Best Sound Mixing.

[Blu Ian]

Well Argo was directed by Ben so if that wins he wins both.

[spanky87]

Originally Posted by Snicket

You are giving way too much credit to the Academy voters. Forward thinking is not something that I would use to describe them.

The way I see it, if voters are going for the novelty factor, they go for the very old or the very young, so they cancel each other out. That leaves Lawrence and Chastain. Zero Dark Thirty took a big hit today and is probably out of the major conversation so it probably wont receive much of an awards campaign. That leaves Sony competing with Weinstein for best actress.

I would love to see Chastain win, but historical precedence tells me otherwise.

Chastain better than Watts? No way. Watts was the real deal. So much emotion, so much physicality. The audience goes through this journey with her.

Chastain was good, but overated besides that last scene. So many cringeworthy moments. She deserved to win more for Take Shelter. I think she's going to be a great leading actress soon, but not yet.

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by See u at da party!

Screw the oscars. No nominations for leo,and samuel l for django. Or nothing for which I consider the most underated movie and performance of the year... The Grey. Liam neeson was amazing and deserved the best actor oscar this year. And tarantino again gets snubed. What a joke.

Did you see that movie with Liam Nessons and dem wolves!?!?!

Originally Posted by Blu Ian

Well Argo was directed by Ben so if that wins he wins both.

What? Hard to win if you are not even nominated. If he wins best picture he wins best picture, not a 2 for 1 deal.

[Adam_ME]

Originally Posted by Snicket

You are giving way too much credit to the Academy voters. Forward thinking is not something that I would use to describe them.

The way I see it, if voters are going for the novelty factor, they go for the very old or the very young, so they cancel each other out. That leaves Lawrence and Chastain. Zero Dark Thirty took a big hit today and is probably out of the major conversation so it probably wont receive much of an awards campaign. That leaves Sony competing with Weinstein for best actress.

I would love to see Chastain win, but historical precedence tells me otherwise.

You could be right. Really you can make arguments for both. Zero Dark Thirty taking the aforementioned big hit could hurt it in the Best Actress running....or it could strengthen Chastain's chances. Since it was snubbed for Best Director and now almost certainly won't win Best Picture, Chastain is the only way to award that movie with something major(all due respect to the technical categories).

Or maybe starring in the massively successful The Hunger Games(and doing a pretty respectable acting job in that as well) will give Jennifer Lawrence momentum in the race. Who knows?

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by spanky87

Chastain better than Watts? No way. Watts was the real deal. So much emotion, so much physicality. The audience goes through this journey with her.

Chastain was good, but overated besides that last scene. So many cringeworthy moments. She deserved to win more for Take Shelter. I think she's going to be a great leading actress soon, but not yet.

I would take that bet every day of the week, even at terrible odds.

The Oscars have zero to do with who was "better", the Oscars are all about who the Academy wants to reward.

[KilloWertz]

Originally Posted by Ernest Rister

The biggest surprise is Bigelow and Affleck not making it in, but the biggest disappointment I've heard is no DiCaprio in Django Unchained.

That really surprised me too, especially since such a big deal has been made about Affleck this year (I'm sure deservedly so). I thought Bigelow would be an automatic since I figured Hollywood would be in love with her considering how much they loved The Hurt Locker and how much they had been hyping Zero Dark Thirty.

Originally Posted by MarkJ801

And I'm sad that The Perks of Wallflower got nothing, not even adapted screenplay.

Yeah, it's kind of a shame. It could have been nominated over Life of Pi.

I know probably nobody outside of jvince will agree with me, but I think Ruby Sparks could have been nominated for Best Original Screenplay, but oh well.

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by Adam_ME

Or maybe starring in the massively successful The Hunger Games(and doing a pretty respectable acting job in that as well) will give Jennifer Lawrence momentum in the race. Who knows?

You know it wouldn't be surprising if Weinstein went to Lionsgate for some campaign money so Lionsgate can advertise Catching Fire staring Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence.

[Rizor]

Some comments:

Best Picture: No real surprises, especially considering we didn't know how many nominees there'd be. Was hoping The Master, Moonrise Kingdom (which I gave the 10th slot in my predictions), and Skyfall (damn you, Producers' Guild and your false hope!) would make it. Lincoln has cemented itself as the frontrunner this year. Runner-ups seem to be Zero Dark Thirty (dislodged from a tie for frontrunner), Life of Pi, and maybe Silver Linings Playbook (up from before).

Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix gets some Oscar love! Can we finally start acknowledging the fact that he delivered one of the all-time best screen performances? John Hawkes missed out but I can't say anyone of the 5 nominees didn't deserve to be here.

Best Actress: No huge surprises here. Wallis was always a possibility and the Academy loves nominating children (Breslin, Steinfeld, Castle-Hughes, etc.). She likely displaced Cotillard, but I didn't feel the buzz surrounding her performance was very strong to begin with. I was hoping Keira Knightley would get a nomination, but with zero precursors, it wasn't likely.

Supporting Actor: No surprises. They played it safe and left Bardem out of the race.

Supporting Actress: Surprised Weaver got it, but the 5th spot was always kinda weak.

Best Director: The biggest surprises of the nomination announcement. Almost criminal not to nominate Bigelow. I guess Affleck is still in the Christopher Nolan wheelhouse of not yet being taken seriously as a director by the director's branch. Very happy Russell got in as his film was terrific. Biggest surprise was for Zeitlin. Happy Hooper wasn't nominated again. Have the nominees ever been this divergent from the DGA noms before? They only got 2 right this time (Spielberg and Lee). Guess this is Spielberg's to lose this year.

Original Screenplay: Sad that The Master didn't get a nomination.

Cinematography: Happy Les Mis didn't get nominated and sad The Master's gorgeous work didn't make it. The frontrunner is probably Miranda for Life of Pi, but they need to give this to Deakins!

Overall, Lincoln seems poised to win Best Picture & Best Director. Day-Lewis is likely to win for Best Actor (unless they feel 2 wins is enough for him already). Zero Dark Thirty and Argo are weaker than they were coming into the announcement. The Academy shows its love for Silver Linings, Amour, and Beasts of the Southern Wild. No love for The Master outside the acting categories (though I'll accept it if it meant securing Phoenix a nomination). Also, I believe The Dark Knight Rises received zero nominations. I guess Skyfall took the spot of Most Respected Action Picture this year.

[Adam_ME]

Originally Posted by KilloWertz

That really surprised me too, especially since such a big deal has been made about Affleck this year (I'm sure deservedly so). I thought Bigelow would be an automatic since I figured Hollywood would be in love with her considering how much they loved The Hurt Locker and how much they had been hyping Zero Dark Thirty.

Actually the more I think about it, the less I'm surprised about Bigelow. The Academy fulfilled their woman filmmaker quota a few years ago by giving her Best Director(as well as Best Picture). And I'm not being facetious. I guaran-damn-tee you they think like that, especially with The Hurt Locker which not many people even saw. That was all about gender politics.

Affleck will get rewarded soon enough. He's got a lot to make up for after the first half of the past decade and the crap he was churning out. But he's getting there. Gone Baby Gone and The Town each got supporting acting nods and now Argo has edged its way into Best Picture contention. If his next directorial effort is on the same level, he'll get nominated. (And on a side note, each of his movies has gotten progressively more successful at the box office.)

[Nielsb90]

A Royal Affair nominated? Nice - bring it home!

[runnersdialzero]

Wow, a lot of love for Silver Linings and beasts of the southern wild.

I hadn't seen any mention of De Niro even sniffing a nomination.

I was hoping for DiCaprio over Arkin. Arkin was doing his thing. Nothing new. Just a funny role he can do in his sleep.

I was really hoping for Richard Gere in Arbitrage over Jackman or Cooper.

[remake]

Originally Posted by robertthunder

Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow- Zero Dark Thirty

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

It wouldn't surprise me if The Dark Knight Rises gets a few nominations, simply to honor the trilogy as a whole.

Originally Posted by robertthunder

Doesn't really matter anyway; DiCaprio will win for Django!!!

Originally Posted by Scholer

I think Cloud Atlas might get a lot of nominations, a lot of wins too, especially screenplay.

And also Killing Me Softly should warrant a Best Picture and Best Actor nomination too, it's truly one of the year's exceptional films.

Originally Posted by Hucksta G

I still think Zero Dark Thirty is the front runner.

Originally Posted by blu-mike

Skyfall will get a nom for best picture.

Originally Posted by Galactus

Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

oops.

[chris_sc77]

Ann Dowd had gotta be having an awful day now. Feel pretty bad for her as Compliance was better than every film nominated besides Django.
Jacki Weaver did nothing in that horribly rated Silver Linings Playbook (David O Russells weakest film he has ever made) So Jacki Weaver is now a 2 time nominee for extremely overrated supporting performances.

[Buddy Ackerman]

Originally Posted by Nielsb90

A Royal Affair nominated? Nice - bring it home!

It's a shame (an unfair one at that) that each country can only nominate one film because, as worthy as A Royal Affair is, The Hunt is incredible and the current system means it didn't have a shot.

EDIT: I take it back. As silly as I still think the system is it turns out The Hunt (as far as I can see) hasn't been released inthe US yet. Maybe they're saving it for next year. By the looks of it it's only being released in Denmark today.

Well, those you haven't seen it yet, you're all in for a treat.

[Nielsb90]

Originally Posted by Buddy Ackerman

It's a shame (an unfair one at that) that each country can only nominate one film because, as worthy as A Royal Affair is, The Hunt is incredible and the current system means it didn't have a shot.

EDIT: I take it back. As silly as I still think the system is it turns out The Hunt (as far as I can see) hasn't been released inthe US yet. Maybe they're saving it for next year. By the looks of it it's only just been released in Denmark.

Well, if you haven't seen it yet, you're all in for a treat.

It premiered in Denmark on January 10th according to IMdB but it also says 2012 next to the title?. I have yet to see it but I have heard good things and Mikkelsen won in Cannes! When did it come out in the UK? I hope you are right - it would be cool to have a Danish nomination again next year

[drichter33]

Originally Posted by Ernest Rister

Strong showing of Silver Linings Playbook was a surprise, for me, as I continued to hear how this wasn't Harvey's year and his legendary Oscar campaigning wasn't gaining traction. Then, voila - nine zillion nominations. Weinstein is amazing when it comes to Oscar promotion.

Mind you I havent seen it, but did it really deserve to get an actor and actress in the lead and supporting role? Someone there had to be weakest.

I am surprised, but elated, that waltz got nominated again. However he is a real longshot to win.