Is the end in sight?

[Manco]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

I think Warner would like to see this end sooner rather than later. I would be surprised if they're still neutral by the end of July.

Possibly. Soon as I see Matrix and Batman Begins on BD, I'll start to believe it.

[Go Blu]

An end would come much sooner than later if Warner went BLU.

However they need a "monetary" incentive to do so other than the high road for the future of HDM. Meaning it has to be worth it for them to do so from a business sense.

Same issue with Paramount. Unlike all the Blu studios Paramount is PLUS 150 Mil. already and will still make their money on Blu after the 18 months.

So the incentive that Warner needs has to offset any revenue to be had from DUD sales.

I firmly believe they know the position they are in with HDM as a whole; but I also think they will not take the high-road for the good of all. it has to be worth it to them.

[Imakida]

Originally Posted by OokieSpookie

3) Keep Stringer from talking again for a while. Perception is everything and even though we and others know what he meant the fact that the press ran with it and put a negative slant on it does matter to companies.
They need to have a strong presence at the high def media show in December and also at CES they need to close the door.

I do not agree, I think that it's a good thing that HD DVD side think the blu-ray is not so strong. You fight harder when you feel you are losing. They will wake up someday and it will be too late..

[Smallville206]

The HD-DVD guys I argue with on another forum I frequent are definitely not lacking in confidence, for some reason they think they are winning the war. I still think things will drag out for a while unless some big store chains go exclusive or another movie studio defects or goes exclusive.
I would like to see another big defining sign that Blu has it wrapped up, movie sales alone do not seem to be doing enough. Why is the margin staying at 2-1 instead of 3-1 or higher?

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by JTK

I think we have to wait until CES 2008 before we can really seriously talk about any "beginnings of the end" and seeing it.

I have no doubt the end is coming, but I don't think much clarity will be provided at CES. More likely, it will happen more towards the middle of next year.

There's just no way that by the 2nd week of January when CES happens that companies are going to be in a position to make these big decisions, unless those decisions have been made already (Perhaps WB??) and they're just being "nice" and cashing in on HD DVD for the 4th Quarter of this year.

[Ispoke]

Toshiba obviously don't think there's any problem, from their Q2 investors presentation on the 29th October 2007

Q4 Please explain us the reason of lowering operating profit in HD DVD, TV and HDD.

The main reason in the TV business is the impact of price decline on TV prices. Our market share in Japan grew to 20%, and the unit quantity increased as well. However, there was a strong influence from aggressive pricing by no-brand manufactures in the US market, and that resulted in lowering profit. In HD DVD, we took a strategic decision in favor of low prices, and increased our spending to expand sales. We would make best effort to be at breakeven in the TV business in the second half of this fiscal year. HD DVD should takeoff next year.

Also wish to see an end to this, but should be careful with our speculation as we really do not know what is going on behind the scenes.

But agree looking good so far.

[bluperch]

Originally Posted by OokieSpookie

3) Keep Stringer from talking again for a while. Perception is everything and even though we and others know what he meant the fact that the press ran with it and put a negative slant on it does matter to companies.
They need to have a strong presence at the high def media show in December and also at CES they need to close the door.

I wonder if Stringer's comments were an olive branch to Toshiba. By saying it's a stalemate, he let's Toshiba save face. Heck, Sony and Toshiba are still partners in other areas and they teamed up in 1990 to create DVD (Sony discarded their disc for Toshiba's after IBM acted as peace envoy).

The end may not be the "death" of HD DVD, but the teaming of the two camps. His other comment that the studios seem to like the "war" between Sony and Tosh. That comment creates a: Sony and Tosh against the studios type vibe (in other words, "Tosh, let's join together so the studios can't play us for saps.").

Just some thoughts. Nothing more.

[greekjgg]

If I were to compare this format war to a football game it would go something like this.

Blu has a commanding lead with 3 min left in the third quarter. Barring a miracle 4th quarter comeback this game is probably over.

At this point in the game over-confident fans shut the tv off and head to bed (Which I would compare some over-confident people on this forum).

I however, have to hang around and continue to watch this game JUST to make sure we don't let that 4th quarter come back happen as it so often has happend in college football this year.

The moral I believe is that although we have a commanding lead, we shouldn't give the other team the option to get back in the game by resting our starters. Have the New England philo that we need to run up the score to prove a point!!

[dragons lair]

Originally Posted by Ispoke

Toshiba obviously don't think there's any problem, from their Q2 investors presentation on the 29th October 2007

Also wish to see an end to this, but should be careful with our speculation as we really do not know what is going on behind the scenes.

But agree looking good so far.

I think what they are counting on is how the new movies are pretty stacked in Blu Ray's favor this year, they think that films are pretty stacked in HD DVD's favor ( from Paramount and Universal) next year for hit movies, for example ( what I think will be the biggest hits are in bold)-

HD DVD only-
Universal
American Gangster
Charlie Wilson's War (Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts).
Wanted
The Incredible Hulk ( no matter how much you hated the 1st one, it still made a crap load of money.)
Hellboy II: The Golden Army ( the 1st was a modest hit at the box office, big hit on DVD).
Mamma Mia! ( I do not want to see this, but a lot of women will, my wife for one example.)
The Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor

Paramount/Dreamworks
Bee Movie
Beowulf
Sweeney Todd
1-18-08 (Cloverfield)
The Spiderwick Chronicles (big kid book series made into a film)
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (should come for both formats or not at all)
Kung Fu Panda (animated from Dreamworks)
The Love Guru (Mike Myers new comedy)
Tropic Thunder (Spielberg produced Action Comedy with Ben Stiller)
Iron Man
The Lovely Bones ( Peter Jackson's new movie)
Nowhereland (comedy-fantasy film starring Eddie Murphy )

Both Formats-
Warner
Fred Claus
I Am Legend
Get Smart
The Dark Knight
Speed Racer
10,000 B.C. ( not sure about this, there was one review at AICN that said it was awful)

Both formats after a delay-
New Line
The Golden Compass
Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo

Blu Ray only-

Sony
Vantage Point
Hancock ( Will Smith Superhere movie).
Step Brothers ( Will Ferrell comedy )
You Don't Mess with Zohan (Adam Sandler comedy)

Fox/MGM
Hitman ( wanted to see this, previews look awful)
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium ( also wanted to see this, previews look awful)
Alvin and the Chipmunks ( wife wanted to see this, previews look awful)
Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem
Starship Dave (Eddie Murphy) ( hit or miss)
X-Files 2 (films in December, supposed to come out in July at theaters)
Jumper ( sounds like a good movie, sci-fi)
Horton Hears a Who

Disney
National Treasure: Book of Secrets
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Wall-E

[kaliraver]

Until I see something come out of WB's mouth I don't think this format war is nearing an end. I sure hope Best Buy does go Blu-Ray exclusive or another retailer because that will be a huge blow for the HD-DVD camp. Sales is what matters to these B&M stores and they need to drop HD-DVD with their lack of market share with only about 1/3 of the HDM market. In all seriousness I think out of all the releases HD-DVD has I think I would only own about 10-15 tops. They don't have a great library plain and simple.

Blu-Ray has a lot of great titles from every studio that supports Blu-Ray. Every time I see HD-DVD I always think about those Warner movies that are still HD-DVD exclusive, those are really the only movies I would really want on Blu-Ray. I think by CES 2008 we will have a clearer picture of how 2008 is going to be and hopefully it will be the end of HD-DVD.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

I asked this last night, but I thought it deserved a thread.

I usually bash HD DVD's in every post by calling them DUD's. But now I am asking this in all seriousness. Are we witnessing the slow death of HD DVD?

I ask because of three reasons.

1) The number of movies sold (what really matters in all this) continues to lean HEAVILY in blu's favor week after week.

2) Toshiba holds a warehouse clearance of old inferior machines AKA "Fire Sale" and sell 90,000 units. PS3 comes out and from what I have read sells 40,000 the first day.

3) It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that HD DVD continues to lose money and from what trends seem there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

I know I am not some marketing genius but from a layman's point of view it seems like the end has already started.

All I will say is HD-DVD is running out of options, but they may stay around for a long time.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Manco

Possibly. Soon as I see Matrix and Batman Begins on BD, I'll start to believe it.

If Batman Begins isn't out on Blu-ray by the end of July, I'll buy it for you when it does come out.

[OokieSpookie]

BDA and Sony just need to pony up and money hat the hell out of Warner.
The only thing that can pull of a fatality anytime soon is Warner going blu ( or Universal for that matter but Warner would be easier ).
Anything else is honestly pointless.
Either money hat Warner, or take a loss and put out 100,000 249 to 199 bd final spec stand alone blu player to convince Warner.

[greekjgg]

Originally Posted by kaliraver69

I sure hope Best Buy does go Blu-Ray exclusive or another retailer because that will be a huge blow for the HD-DVD camp.

This is a hard thing to make happen as most retailers like Best Buy sell 360's in their store as well. Usually they get perks from M$ for endcaps, etc to push their product. To go blu would mean they give up that, it is more likely that they would expand blu support but never go exclusive until the format war is "officially" decided and that would mean Toshiba surrenduring.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

If Batman Begins isn't out on Blu-ray by the end of July, I'll buy it for you when it does come out.

With PCM (24bit) hopefully!!!

[Ispoke]

The game plan is in theory simple, convince the studios that your format, [ insert your choice], has a greater adoption rate of the hardware. Why? Because I believe the studio will not just be looking at the short term impact on disc sales.

We can see how Toshiba are playing by the aggressive pricing. BDA's apparoach seems to be sit back in defence, occasionally attack on the break, then hope the other side run out of steam by the end of the match and get a late goal.

Just my 2 pence

[coolmilo]

Warner going Blu exclusive would be a nail in the coffin for sure.

I see two battle strategies at the moment. Red is selling their hardware for almost nothing and Blu is focusing their efforts on software deals (BOGO).

Now, if Blu would come out with a no frills 1080i player for $199 or less this will attract many of the lower end users. If the BDA does this then there will be no more advantage or perceived advantage for Red.

I had a conversation with a VC (Venture Capitalist) friend yesterday and he told me that price is really the only factor. He said for every person who would spend $400 or $500 on a Blu-ray play, there are a 1000 that will wait for a cheap player. And this market sector does not care about quality as much as price. This is why Vizio LCD's are the number one seller, because they are cheap.

It’s tough for me to understand this reasoning because I focus on the quality. I guess that 99% of Blu-ray.com members prefer quality too or else they would be HD DVD fans.

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by coolmilo

Warner going Blu exclusive would be a nail in the coffin for sure.

I see two battle strategies at the moment. Red is selling their hardware for almost nothing and Blu is focusing their efforts on software deals (BOGO).

Now, if Blu would come out with a no frills 1080i player for $199 or less this will attract many of the lower end users. If the BDA does this then there will be no more advantage or perceived advantage for Red.

I had a conversation with a VC (Venture Capitalist) friend yesterday and he told me that price is really the only factor. He said for every person who would spend $400 or $500 on a Blu-ray play, there are a 1000 that will wait for a cheap player. And this market sector does not care about quality as much as price. This is why Vizio LCD's are the number one seller, because they are cheap.

It’s tough for me to understand this reasoning because I focus on the quality. I guess that 99% of Blu-ray.com members prefer quality too or else they would be HD DVD fans.

I agree that it would not be bad, but coming out with a 1080i low end BD would essentially be going back on the very things that BD held against Toshiba.
1080p full spec or do nothing at all even if it has to be sold at a small loss.
Even the bogo deals are great but they are honestly hurting things in their own way too and can have a bad effect on movie sales down the line.

[Go Blu]

Toshiba has the ability to be allot more proactive in making crazy moves because they don't have to answer to anyone.

On the other end members of the BDA have to work together. So no one company can make a huge move without the BDA. If you do, you risk alienating them to the other side.

Toshiba cannot keep this up forever.
Slow and steady and we will win with overwhelming numbers. Eventually a good portion of the millions of PS3 owners will get HDTV's and when they do the numbers will be huge. Then you take into account all the standalone players from all of the CE companies. This is a winning scenario without another exclusive studio. It will just take a little longer.

[JAGUAR1977]

Price is only a factor if:-

1/ The difference is huge

2/ The cheaper alternative offers the same as the more expensive competition, i.e TV's.


Right now Blu-ray already has a large installed base, the key is to convince that PS3 market to be regular Blu-ray buyers.

6 Months down the line standalone 1.1 players prices will be sub $200, so it makes sense to focus on the millions of PS3 users in the short term.