High Def 2.0 Conference (12/4/07 Today!)

[blu2]

Originally Posted by darinp2

People can think about what that article predicts and what a Warner VP said recently:

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/warner-a...eutrality/4866
and I think they will come to the conclusion that Warner would like to avoid the outcome predicted.

--Darin

If you want Warner to choose, you may or may not like the choice they make.

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by blu2

It is today.

http://highdef.homemediaconferences..../v42/index.cvn

I know, I was joking with somebody who didn't!

Originally Posted by darinp2

My preference is to not let one side that would be happy with a stalemate continue keeping consumers from getting one format for the first world, like we did with DVD.

+1

~Alan

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by blu2

If you want Warner to choose, you may or may not like the choice they make.

Obviously.

--Darin

[hollywoodguy]

Originally Posted by blu2

If you want Warner to choose, you may or may not like the choice they make.

In the context of this thread there is only one possible choice. The other would not break, but cement a "stalemate."

[blu2]

Originally Posted by hollywoodguy

In the context of this thread there is only one possible choice. The other would not break, but cement a "stalemate."

Not necessarily. WB going red could give HD DVD a strong edge in terms of media, and they already have the edge in standalone hardware pricing. The studio momentum shift (loss of two major studios in a row) accelerates HD DVD hardware sales further, a Blu Ray studio dominos neutral, and it's effectively over.

If WB went red, then surely they would have to think it would end the war. For what other reason would they make the choice?

Neither Blu Ray nor HD DVD can really afford to lose WB.

But, I don't think they'll change their current position.

The war can still end if/when standalone player prices equalize and HD DVD loses the price advantage.

[LeoneFan]

Warner is just plain greedy and wants a quick buck for the short-term. If they had any brains they would have gone BD exclusive 6 months ago and finished this war off.

[dialog_gvf]

Blu-ray and HD DVD software buy rates overall are lagging from where the industry stood in the second year after standard DVD’s introduction. During that time for standard-definition, in 1998, the average DVD household bought 8.9 discs. But in 2007, the average high-def household (including set-tops, PS3s and Xbox 360 add-ons) bought only 3.6 high-def discs.

Not really meaningful because it's another variant of the count all PS/3 for calculating attach rates.

Boosting high-definition disc sales rests on the shoulders of the studios, insisted the two research groups. Screen Media’s Jayalath is pushing for studios to mirror Warner Home Video’s strategy of generating titles in both Blu-ray and HD DVD formats.

How meaningful are their predictions if they then call on the studios to make a radical change toward something that GUARANTEES a market split?

What are their predictions based on? The studios listening to them? Not listening to them? It will be the same either way?

Gary

[tru2blu707]

predictions doesnt sound too promising....only way for a win now would be for WB to pick a side....

[WickyWoo]

They're just repeating the months old analysis by people who don't look at what's actually happening

I've been saying all along, after Christmas the retailers will choose a format, and that format will win. The rumblings are already happening from major retailers that that's exactly what they're going to do. And which way do you think they'll go?

I'm still confident that WB will pick a side, almost certainly Blu before summer.
One of the big problems is that they've compartmentalized their entire PR staff from the upper eschalons in order to maintain neutrality until the last possible second, so it's going to hit hard and fast when it does.

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

They're just repeating the months old analysis by people who don't look at what's actually happening

I've been saying all along, after Christmas the retailers will choose a format, and that format will win. The rumblings are already happening from major retailers that that's exactly what they're going to do. And which way do you think they'll go?

I'm still confident that WB will pick a side, almost certainly Blu before summer.
One of the big problems is that they've compartmentalized their entire PR staff from the upper eschalons in order to maintain neutrality until the last possible second, so it's going to hit hard and fast when it does.

They very much keep an eye on what is happening, these are not people who fall for fud and misinformation.
Besides, all detractors have to do is point to Stringer's own genius lapse of intellect where he himself brought the word "stalemate" into the public eye.
Blu is making some good moves as of late and let's hope that they are impressing the right people.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by blu2

Not necessarily. WB going red could give HD DVD a strong edge in terms of media, and they already have the edge in standalone hardware pricing. The studio momentum shift (loss of two major studios in a row) accelerates HD DVD hardware sales further, a Blu Ray studio dominos neutral, and it's effectively over.

If WB went red, then surely they would have to think it would end the war. For what other reason would they make the choice?

I would make HD DVD the favorites in the US and Europe if WB and New Line switched to HD DVD exclusively, but I'm not sure even they could tip things enough to get a win for HD DVD in Japan. They might be able to cause a stalemate there and mostly kill the HD on disc market there though. As far as another reason, unfortunately they might go for the money and maybe Toshiba will offer them a huge share of HD DVD going forward (or a lot of cash). I hope it doesn't happen, but it could. You are right that if they make a move it could go against Blu-ray. If they stay neutral at CES and no other studios change, I think that kind of works in Blu-ray's favor, as long as they get cheaper Chinese players out (along the lines of what you said about prices equalizing). Of course, switching to Blu-ray works way more in Blu-ray's favor (I think HD DVD would lose just about all hope) and I would love to see that in the less than 5 weeks from now that CES starts.

I also think Universal should be giving some thought to the stuff in that article. No way is a stalemate for years good for Universal. And if Warner goes to Blu-ray they lose almost all the leverage they have right now. Of course, if Warner goes Universal's direction they can party, but if their main concern is money, then I think they should be considering beating Warner to the punch. If Universal went neutral it would take away much of the leverage Warner and New Line can use against the Blu-ray side. Not all of it, but much of it. While Warner is watching what is happening in Q4, Universal should be also if there is any chance they might want to be the first mover from now (and get compensated for moving first).

--Darin

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by darinp2

If Universal went neutral it would take away much of the leverage Warner and New Line can use against the Blu-ray side. Not all of it, but much of it.

Given New Line's "appreciation" of Region Coding, I would think that they at least favor Blu-ray regardless of Warner's feelings.

On the off-chance that Warner were to go red, I would expect New Line Cinema to continue their "delay" of new releases. If HD DVD were to gain much steam in the New Year, a delay of "The Golden Compass" sure would tick off HD DVD viewers who don't know anything about Region Coding.

~Alan

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by blu2

Not necessarily. WB going red could give HD DVD a strong edge in terms of media, and they already have the edge in standalone hardware pricing. The studio momentum shift (loss of two major studios in a row) accelerates HD DVD hardware sales further, a Blu Ray studio dominos neutral, and it's effectively over.

Totally implausible. Even if WB dropped BD, HD-DVD would not have much of an edge contentwise. And the "domino" theory of toppling Blu studios? Disney and Fox, who absolutely require content protection like BD+, and Sony?

[Icemage]

At this point, I think New Line Cinema might be the canary in the mines since their ties to Warner are so strong.

If they do end up releasing the HD DVD versions of their titles at some point (restricted to Hairspray at the moment), then continued neutrality from Warner is possible, but it's curious that their release window for those titles extends beyond this year - and gives them a graceful out if something should happen at CES.

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I also think Universal should be giving some thought to the stuff in that article. No way is a stalemate for years good for Universal. And if Warner goes to Blu-ray they lose almost all the leverage they have right now. Of course, if Warner goes Universal's direction they can party, but if their main concern is money, then I think they should be considering beating Warner to the punch. If Universal went neutral it would take away much of the leverage Warner and New Line can use against the Blu-ray side. Not all of it, but much of it. While Warner is watching what is happening in Q4, Universal should be also if there is any chance they might want to be the first mover from now (and get compensated for moving first).

That's RIGHT ON, Darin. Only wrinkle is that Penton-Man has said publicly that we shouldn't expect any "news" from Universal early in 2008. I believe the words he used were "Snowball's chance in hell".

But I also wonder if "Snowball's chance in hell" could change REAL FAST if Universal hears through the grapevine that WB is likely to go BD excl. Universal was obviously courted last year by the BDA (and declined), and you're right they will lose all that leverage if WB jumps first.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I would make HD DVD the favorites in the US and Europe if WB and New Line switched to HD DVD exclusively, but I'm not sure even they could tip things enough to get a win for HD DVD in Japan.

Favorites for what? Taking the lead? Or do you think that somehow the PS/3 disappears from the equation?

People (and studios) really need to keep in mind that AACS on HD DVD is broken. And that means Blu-ray can never really go away.

Warner will anger whichever side it abandons, but one side can make it hurt.

Gary

[richteer]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Warner is just plain greedy and wants a quick buck for the short-term. If they had any brains they would have gone BD exclusive 6 months ago and finished this war off.

Oh, come on! I'm as pissed of at Warner over their lame HD DVD ports to Blu-ray as the next guy, but your first sentence is without substance. If Warner as greedy as you suggest, they'd have taken the bribe Microshiba offered them before they went to Para*****.

I do agree, though, that if Warner has any business sense they'd go Blu-exclusive early next year (e.g., at CES).

[Esox50]

So was HiDef Conference 2.0 a complete bust in terms of the studios previewing new titles for 2008?

Or is the news just slow to leak?

Any good "Behind the Scenes" talk from the conference or are we officially into "waiting for CES08" mode now?

[JAGUAR1977]

People are putting too much faith/fear into down and dirty conspiracy theories, those behind closed doors shock announcments are a thing of the past, HD-DVD has already showed their hand with Paramount, it isn't going to happen again.

Everyones sick of the fun and games, if they had any appetite, Paramount would have signed up for 2-3 years, not 18 months, which we're already focusing on the finishline of, now only 12 months away.

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by Esox50

So was HiDef Conference 2.0 a complete bust in terms of the studios previewing new titles for 2008?

Or is the news just slow to leak?

Any good "Behind the Scenes" talk from the conference or are we officially into "waiting for CES08" mode now?

This was not CES nor was it expected (in any realistic sense) to give any real news.