Christmas Box Office Showdown (12/20-12/25) Greatest Showman, Jumanji, Downsizing

[Cremildo]

Box Office Mojo:

friday am update: pitch perfect 3 grossed $2.1 million from preview screenings beginning at 7pm last night from ~2,600 theaters. This is less than half the $4.6 million pitch perfect 2 brought in before debuting with $69.2 million back in 2015.

paramount's downsizing played in ~1,900 locations last night and brought in $425,000. one of our comps heading into the weekend was 2016's whiskey tango foxtrot, which brought in $300k from preview showings in ~1,700 theaters before its $7.45 million three-day opening.

[Creed]

PP3 is in trouble.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by creed123

PP3 is in trouble.

I would say I'm surprised but I don't think there was much demand for this one so I'm not really.

[paradise.lost]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

I would say I'm surprised but I don't think there was much demand for this one so I'm not really.

I know nothing about this series other than the 2nd one opened massive against Fury Road and went on to earn a boatload of cash. I believe it was also well-received generally. A 3rd one was a guarantee. I'm going to chalk this one up to a terrible release date. Why in the world would you put the follow-up to a 70m opener the weekend after a SW movie? What was wrong with keeping the date during summer like the previous 2?

[Chaotic]

Originally Posted by paradise.lost

I know nothing about this series other than the 2nd one opened massive against Fury Road and went on to earn a boatload of cash. I believe it was also well-received generally. A 3rd one was a guarantee. I'm going to chalk this one up to a terrible release date. Why in the world would you put the follow-up to a 70m opener the weekend after a SW movie? What was wrong with keeping the date during summer like the previous 2?

They wanted to be able to use they amazing pun "Pitchmas."

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by paradise.lost

I know nothing about this series other than the 2nd one opened massive against Fury Road and went on to earn a boatload of cash. I believe it was also well-received generally. A 3rd one was a guarantee. I'm going to chalk this one up to a terrible release date. Why in the world would you put the follow-up to a 70m opener the weekend after a SW movie? What was wrong with keeping the date during summer like the previous 2?

Feels like an intentional dump to me, only reason I can think of so many big movies opened this weekend the week after Last Jedi.

[Cremildo]

[NullUser]

It's now safe to say TLJ is underperforming a lot more than I expected

[paradise.lost]

Originally Posted by NullUser

It's now safe to say TLJ is underperforming a lot more than I expected

Compared to TFA, absolutely. No question about it. Here's the comparison to the other 175m plus openers,

TLJ

JW - only one that did slightly better

Avengers

AoU

CA:CW

BatB

Iron Man 3

What's really telling is that it's performing worse than Rogue One,

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/...arwars2016.htm

[WestMan]

Originally Posted by NullUser

It's now safe to say TLJ is underperforming a lot more than I expected

You finally admit it. lol

I'm not cheering for Star Wars to fail. I'm really not. From purely a numbers viewpoint, the word of mouth without question has taken a major hit to the box office.

There is a small chance that this movie has a 70% drop in box office for the second weekend, which would be Batman v Superman level bad. Personally, I think it will do around a 55% to 60% drop, but you never know, as X-Mas Eve always hurts numbers somewhat....

Typically the third movie in the trilogy goes up in box office. It happened with the previous 2 trilogies (different eras, I know). I just don't think that will happen here. Star Wars will still be super profitable, but The Last Jedi did some damage to the brand name.

[paradise.lost]

Originally Posted by WestMan

You finally admit it. lol

I'm not cheering for Star Wars to fail. I'm really not. From purely a numbers viewpoint, the word of mouth without question has taken a major hit to the box office.

There is a small chance that this movie has a 70% drop in box office for the second weekend, which would be Batman v Superman level bad. Personally, I think it will do around a 55% to 60% drop, but you never know, as X-Mas Eve always hurts numbers somewhat....

Typically the third movie in the trilogy goes up in box office. It happened with the previous 2 trilogies (different eras, I know). I just don't think that will happen here. Star Wars will still be super profitable, but The Last Jedi did some damage to the brand name.

They admitted nothing, and especially not what you were harping on about.

And no. It is yet to be seen if it has taken a "major hit due to WoM from a numbers viewpoint without question".

[WestMan]

Originally Posted by paradise.lost

They admitted nothing, and especially not what you were harping on about.

And no. It is yet to be seen if it has taken a "major hit due to WoM from a numbers viewpoint without question".

Much to learn, you still have.

[paradise.lost]

Originally Posted by WestMan

Much to learn, you still have.

Cute, but worthless.

[imsounoriginal]

Of course the movie was gonna underperformed compared to TFA. But I don't see how $592M+ worldwide in just one week is underperforming by any objective metric.

But I do hope it plummets this weekend. Movie deserves to drop like an anvil. I know it won't, but i'll hope.

[WestMan]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

Of course the movie was gonna underperformed compared to TFA. But I don't see how $592M+ worldwide in just one week is underperforming by any objective metric.

But I do hope it plummets this weekend. Movie deserves to drop like an anvil. I know it won't, but i'll hope.

Domestic gross... even compared to expectations that had it not performing as well as TFA... and it is still underperforming.

[imsounoriginal]

Originally Posted by WestMan

Domestic gross... even compared to expectations that had it not performing as well as TFA... and it is still underperforming.

Fair enough. Let's see how the holiday weekend goes. Big test but it's Star Wars and Disney so I'm sure it'll do fine.

BTW, the downturn of Star Wars receipts was predicted pretty well in this piece: http://www.reelviews.net/reelthought...ght_1511800876

Of course I posted it before the movie came out and people didn't wanna read it, but now that they know the movie is garbage, maybe people will take another look at it.

[WestMan]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

Fair enough. Let's see how the holiday weekend goes. Big test but it's Star Wars and Disney so I'm sure it'll do fine.

BTW, the downturn of Star Wars receipts was predicted pretty well in this piece: http://www.reelviews.net/reelthought...ght_1511800876

Of course I posted it before the movie came out and people didn't wanna read it, but now that they know the movie is garbage, maybe people will take another look at it.

Very good read, and I completely agree. I could see that even in about 5 years it will feel like every other movie series. Not good. And the box office will eventually follow.

[DrWally]

Originally Posted by WestMan

Very good read, and I completely agree. I could see that even in about 5 years it will feel like every other movie series. Not good. And the box office will eventually follow.

To put this in perspective, TLJ has made more money domestically in its first week than any other movie in history BAR ONE.

This is now classed as "Underperforming" and having "Damaged the brand".

I guess we all now need to adjust our metrics for success.

[Jennifer Lawrence Fan]

I saw both Jumanji and The Greatest Showman and enjoyed both.

[Star Lord]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

Of course the movie was gonna underperformed compared to TFA. But I don't see how $592M+ worldwide in just one week is underperforming by any objective metric.

But I do hope it plummets this weekend. Movie deserves to drop like an anvil. I know it won't, but i'll hope.