Prediction. "HD DVD wins and Fox and Disney onboard in 2007"

[JTK]

Get a load of this latest piece of fanboy fodder and lies.

See how many untruths you can uncover in this wishful thinking:


http://www.tvpredictions.com/whipblu102406.htm

Swanni is of the opinion that Blu-ray will defeat HD-DVD. I respectfully disagree. I find it more probable that neither will become mass items and that both will survive as niche products than that Blu-ray (BD) will win out.

It is possible that HD downloads will be available before either of these formats reach the masses, which if true, will spell the death of both as home movie formats. However, I feel that it is quite possible, if not likely, that HD-DVD will prove to be the format of choice for HD movies for several reasons.

The first is the cost of the players. The first generation Toshiba, the HD-A1, retailed for $499. It could be purchased from several retailers for as little as $399.
The Samsung BD player, on the other hand, retailed for $999. The same is true for the new Phillips. The Panasonic is about $1300. and the Pioneer even more.

(The Sony Blu-ray player, which is being made by Pioneer, is now delayed until December and is set to be sold for $999.)

It is clear that the Toshiba has far outsold the Samsung at this juncture. At the prices noted above, only the most eager Home Theater enthusiasts are buying into BD at this point. On the other hand, there are at least 50,000 HD-DVD players that have been sold. In some estimates, HD-DVD titles have outsold BD titles by a factor of at least 3:1.

The Trojan Horse for the BD camp, the PS3, is not likely to make the big splash for BD movies as anticipated as it will be purchased mainly by gamers who will not likely use it to watch BD movies but play games.

How many times have we seen this wishy washy argument thrown around?

It's irrelevant. All that matters is hardware being sold and overall market penetration and final numbers. If BD penetrates by sheer "accident" because it's an integral part of the PS3, what does it matter? It's still there, it's still penetrating, and oh yeah, a nice BD50 of Tallgaeda Nights, a fairly popular film, is being packed in with every PS3.

On the other hand, the XBox360 "add on" HD-DVD drive at $199 is selling out its preorders and may add another 100,000 to 250,000 new HD-DVD players into the market by the end of the year.

Where's his proof and documention for this?

The people I've talked to have told me they barely have been able to move or advertise it. The gamers, by and large, don't care about this thing.

Unlike the PS3, these drives are being purchased expressly to play HD-DVD movies, not games.

And it just doesn't matter in the end.

All that matters is final numbers and overall market penetration.

Therefore, with the first generation players, the XBox add on and the new second generation HD-DVD players coming on the market this month, it is possible that there will be several hundred thousand HD-DVD players in homes by the end of the year. This will also be something noticed by the movie studios.

It's possible that pigs will fly outside of my window tonight, at the rate this "logic" is going. Arguably as probable.

There are rumblings that two of the movie studios firmly in the BD camp, Fox and Disney, have not been happy with the BD rollout and are considering also supporting HD-DVD in 2007.

ANY documentation for this? No, of course not. More FUD and propoganda.

If this does come to pass, it will be difficult to see how HD-DVD will do anything but continue to thrive.

As an owner of a HD-DVD player and one who has seen two of the current BD players in action,

Which ones? For how long? Which movies? What conditions? etc. etc.

Of course no further specifics are offered.

... the best that BD will be able to do is match HD-DVD in terms of picture and audio quality. It will not surpass it.

What a #$%^ing lie. Amir himself couldn't have written it any better.

Formats EVOLVE. Compare DVD's of today vs. 10 years ago.

As it stands now, with the number of HD-DVD players out there and the movies being released, HD-DVD will be with us for a long time. Should any of the possibilities noted above actually come to pass, it is quite possible that HD-DVD will become the dominant format.

At this point, it seems clear to me that HD-DVD will continue as a viable format for several years. With any luck, it could even win the format war.

Just more desperate, grasping at straws "logic" for the HD-DVD fanboys to grasp on to in an ever growing world of Blu.

Nothing but rumors and hearsay, and yet I see this kind of stuff constanlty bandied about as truth and gospel.


There's so many lies and biased ASS-U-mptions here it's downright laughable. Where are the specifics? Where's the documentation? What are the sources?

There just isn't a damned thing to it.

Some people are in for a rude awakening in the next few months.

[blitz6speed]

It is indeed a sad time.

Tough for them tho! Theres always XanaX.

[JTK]

One thing I've said for months and I'll say it again here:

The PS3 certainly helps BD, but I do not believe it is the end all, be all of the format war.

I never have.

How much of a factor does it end up ultimately being?

That's all up to Sony. Sony needs to provide enough units to meet demand and the marketing/PR/advertising for the PS3 needs to be better than what it is write now, as of this writing.

The TGS was big for the PS3. God knows they were sorely overdue for some genuine buzz and enthusisam about the games and TGS did it for them.


I've seen a recent PS3 Tv spot and didn't do much for me. They need to step it up and start raiding the airwaves with PS3 ads that are good and compelling.


Blu-Ray, as a whole, is reliant on ALL of the BDA companies. Not just Sony. They ALL have to pitch forth and I think they will.


As a sidenote to that: I'm even starting to see really good word of mouth on the Pioneer Elite BD player, even from at least one individual who's been as belligerent of an HD-DVD supporter as possible, despite claiming to be a Sony and Pioneer installer. Some of you know who I'm talking about.


^^ When a person like that posts something like this:

Despite being a preproduction unit with much of the functionality diabled, I have changed my plan for adding Blu-ray to my system to now include the Pioneer player as one of two possible options, along with Sony's player. This demo unit is that good, at least as far as video quality goes.

The only reason Pioneer did not go to the top of the short list is that Sony is using the same Sigma Designs chip as Pioneer that enable native 1080/24P output and the Sony is quite a bit less money. My Sony Pearl projector REALLY likes 1080/24P and that has now become THE required feature for me.

Hell, the ground practically under foot when I read that from this person.

Believe me: This is a person who has been as arrogant, belligerent, and downright nasty of a BD basher as there could be, despite claiming to be an installer for Sony and Pioneer products. He's shilled HD-DVD for the last year as much as anyone could.

And yet look at what he's saying today.


THAT is where the format war begins and ends, right there, with that kind of enthusiast at that level.

[Rob Tomlin]

I posted this on the other forum, so I will post it here too since it is based on the same article:

Brian does an excellent job of pointing out the inconsistent arguments made by the author of that piece. You can't have it both ways. Gamers will either buy HD discs, or they won't.

It simply does not make any sense to say that the "PS3 is not likely to make the big splash for BD movies as anticipated as it will be purchased mainly by gamers who will not likely use it to watch BD movies but play games" and then turn around and say "On the other hand, the XBox360 "add on" HD-DVD drive at $199 is selling out its preorders and may add another 100,000 to 250,000 new HD-DVD players into the market by the end of the year. Unlike the PS3, these drives are being purchased expressly to play HD-DVD movies, not games".

The PS3 will come with a BD movie included. Everyone who buys one will know that they can play BD movies on it. There is absolutely no reason to believe that the percentage of PS3 users that play BD movies will be lower than those who have a 360. In fact, the logical conclusion is that is will be a HIGHER percentage, since PS3 owners do not have to go out and buy an "add on" to have that capability.

The 360 add on is simply a method to keep up with the competition. And a good one at that! But lets not underestimate the positive impact that the PS3 will have on BD either.

JTK does a good job of pointing out all the wishful thinking and speculation in that article as well. Where in world is this info coming from saying that Fox is considering releasing on HD-DVD? Or Disney for that matter? The only proof I have seen re Disney is based on a statement that was made back in March of 2006!! (http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060313-6374.html) Seven months later and there is no sign whatsever that Disney is going to release on HD-DVD.

It drives me insane when people post pure speculation without an ounce of evidence to back it up. Someone please give me ANY statements, evidence, clues, ANYTHING that would indicate that Fox is even CONSIDERING releasing on HD-DVD. ANYTHING!

I will be waiting.............

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by JTK

^^ When a person like that posts something like this:




Hell, the ground practically under foot when I read that from this person.

Believe me: This is a person who has been as arrogant, belligerent, and downright nasty of a BD basher as there could be, despite claiming to be an installer for Sony and Pioneer products. He's shilled HD-DVD for the last year as much as anyone could.

And yet look at what he's saying today.


THAT is where the format war begins and ends, right there, with that kind of enthusiast at that level.

Who was this? Gary?

It seems the Pioneer Elite is getting some good initial reviews.

[Knight-Errant]

Oh maaaaaaan smell that panic!

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

Who was this? Gary?

It seems the Pioneer Elite is getting some good initial reviews.

Robert G.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by JTK

Robert G.

Yep, saw his posts today.

Lets be honest though. He is a dealer. There was never any doubt that he would own a BD player (or two).

[hyperdine]

This is just sad really. I almost feel sorry for the HD-DVD fanboys. They're just in a state of denial. It's kind of like they've hit rock bottom and they just keep repeating to themselves these things (even if they're not true) because they're delusional and it makes them feel better.

I think they're going to need a 12-step program if HD-DVD eventually fails.

Maybe they should've just called it HD-DOA or HD-DUD

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by hyperdine

Maybe they should've just called it HD-DOA or HD-DUD

I coined that last term many many months ago (just not here )

But it has grown and evolved into HD-DUD's FUD

[vick vega]

The next hd dvd players to roll out cost a grand so they lost that advantage, and can they even play these supposed triple layer 45 gig discs? no probably not. Looks like another upgrade for the hd dvd players and their not even out yet. Blu-ray will be on triple layer 75 gig discs before hd dvd is on 45. Now that blu-ray is rolling it's full steam ahead.

[bferr1]

How can Robert George place so high an importance on the 1080/24P output of the Pioneer and Sony, saying this is the only reason he'll consider these players, and be such an HD DVD partisan when those players don't have the all-important 1080/24P output? I just don't get it.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by bferr1

How can Robert George place so high an importance on the 1080/24P output of the Pioneer and Sony, saying this is the only reason he'll consider these players, and be such an HD DVD partisan when those players don't have the all-important 1080/24P output? I just don't get it.

Doesn't the new Toshiba ($1000.00) have 1080p/24 output?

[bruce]

Originally Posted by vick vega

The next hd dvd players to roll out cost a grand so they lost that advantage

They have two coming out, the HD-A2 which will list for $499.00 and I have seen at least one mention at AVS of a online retailer taking pre-orders at $399.00+shipping, the $1000.00 model is the 1080P/(don't know 24P,60P,etc) and HDMI 1.3 which comes out in December.

I am still have hope that the Sony, when it comes out, will have 1.3 based on the delays of it coming out.

[PurpleAardvark]

Originally Posted by bruce

They have two coming out, the HD-A2 which will list for $499.00 and I have seen at least one mention at AVS of a online retailer taking pre-orders at $399.00+shipping, the $1000.00 model is the 1080P/(don't know 24P,60P,etc) and HDMI 1.3 which comes out in December.

I am still have hope that the Sony, when it comes out, will have 1.3 based on the delays of it coming out.

Ok here is my thinking on the subject.
The MS add on is a joke. No sound opions that are worth it, several reports from people working on it say it has Black and grey issues, and like the A1, it is prone to crashing. Not to uncommon with MS stuff. So infact I believe this new add on is going to hurt HD more than help it.
The new A2 is a joke. You are paying the same amount as the A1 and getting less. The XA2 is confirmed not to be a true 1080p player, it does converting just like the sammy and panny do right now. SO compaired to the sony and poineer the XA2 is a joke. $1000 for a sony player or a toshiba. Which would you chose? What do you think average joe is going to chose?
Sony player and poineer are 2 different companies. Sony does not make poineer players, and poineer does not make sony players. More FUD. They may share some same parts but that is to be expected. The by the logic these people are using all BD players would be made by sony.
IMO HD DVD is a joke, a sad one at that. I own the A1 and I hate it. The sound isn't as good as BD, it is unconsistant, only playing movies when it wants to. Feel free to believe that HD is going to win the format war, that is your opion if you chose to do so. Making up stuff to push propagand is something that only makes you look stupid. The only company that does that is MS and big tabacco. Both deserve to be shut down.
Here is anthor thing that proves Toshiba is a joke. How many mid-high end stores carry toshiba, none. Why, because toshiba's products always have issues. If you get one that works right you are fine. You get a toshiba product that has a small problem, you are screwed. CC doesn't even carry toshiba products. So please believe that HD and toshiba are here to stay, if you believe that I have a solid gold bridge in Africa I would love to sell you for $100.

[Blackraven]

Originally Posted by vick vega

Blu-ray will be on triple layer 75 gig discs before hd dvd is on 45.

If we are talking about max. capacity, then here's the thing:

Even if HD-DVD were to go to their triple-layer 45GB state, Blu-ray 50 would still outwitt them by around 5 gigabytes.

No need for BD to move to triple layer unless HD-DVD brings out their quad-layer (if they have any).

Still maybe that won't be necessary for movies though....unless we plan on compiling a trilogy in the near future.