Will Blu-ray ever capture 50% of the market?

[stockstar1138]

people we can't compare vhs v. dvd to dvd v. blu-ray. all blu-ray players play dvd, which will not render dvd obsolete like dvd did with vhs, because dvd players couldn't play vhs.

[maximiza]

Just like it was stated somewhere else , the internet providers will start charging a premium when they start seeing 100-1000 gb downloads per month for a user. You will not really be saving any money, you might actually be paying more for downloads.

[TauRus]

I voted yes, but let me explain the framework of my thinking: I said yes for more than 50% of packaged HD media market share, excluding any kind of broadcast / srteamed / DL HD content. I think that market is a different beast altogether and needs to be evaluated separately.
As far as packaged media market goes, I have no doubt Blu will eventually catch up with SD DVD and overtake it. I would expect this to take place sometime around 2011-2012.

[Slapper]

Yes.

But, the home video market is going to be smaller overall, so I don't think it's really fair to say "Blu-ray is now king" when Blu-ray sales eventually surpass DVD sales. DVD is the #1 home video format of all time and will retain that crown, IMO. In order for the market for Blu-ray to be as successful as DVD was (and still is), we're all going to have to throw away our DVDs and replace everything with Blu-ray. That goes for everyone, not just HT enthusiasts. Catalog titles are going to be much harder for the general public to buy into on Blu-ray when they already have the title on DVD.

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

curious on how you are getting your numbers.

The numbers are from the CEA (Consumer Electronics Association) which uses the tv household numbers provided by Nielson which puts us at 112.8 million total U.S. TV households. All percentages are based on that, the same way DVD gets its market penetration numbers. In July 2007 HDTV penetration stood at 32% or some 36 million homes. The CEA put the total number of HDTV sets sold by year-end 2006 at 39.9 million, climbing to 60.6 million by the end of 2007, and it said one-third of HD households own multiple sets. So when figuring market penetration, households with multiple sets are only counted once. Right now we are well past the 1/3 mark for homes with HDTV's and that number only grows every day.

[Anthony P]

I think you are missing three fundamental things.

1) It is not necessary to have an HDTV to have BD (read on, it is important for #3)

2) In 2009 in the US and 2011 in Canada the networks need to be digital. This does not mean that everyone needs a new TV, but most of the none HD TVs don't have digital tuners and I think most people will decide to buy a new TV instead of an extra box that does the decoding.

3) at $300+ for BD players DVD is still worth it for manufacturers because most won't buy a BD player, but the price will drop and at some point DVDs extremely low margins and BDs competitive price will make the releasing of DVD players extinct. Look at VHS today, VHS only players are virtually none existent, and even combos are not relatively rare (you can find one or two models in the store, and sometimes not even that) With DVD it will go much faster.

[ottscay]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

there is no way that 90% of households will have HDTVs by 2011. maybe if those figures include computer monitors, but other than that there is now way that we will hit 90%. given that the US population is 300 million and 25% of those people have hdtvs in there homes that is 75 million hdtvs sold in 10 years. to get 90% of households with hdtvs in homes by 2011 that means that roughly 200 million hdtvs will have to be sold to NEW households in the next 3 years. no way thats going to happen. i think its much more realsitic to say that it took 10 years to sell the first 75 million, it will take 3 years to sell another 75 million. there is the acclerated growth. and out of those new 75 million owners how many are going to go blu or simply stay with upconversion dvds or use a downloading service.

Whoa...that's 90% of households, not an HDTV for 9 out of 10 individuals. Very few babies own an SDTV let alone an HDTV. There's just a few over 100 million households in the US (or, right around 3 people per household, on average).

Therefor, no where near 75 million HDTVs have been sold in the US, that would put us at over 50% of households already (unless a whole lot of people bought 2). Current extimates are that somewhere between 1/5 and 1/3 households have HDTVs (http://www.broadcastingcable.com/art...A6495849.html). Furthermore, almost half of US households say they plan to buy an HDTV in the next 12 months (http://www.parksassociates.com/press...5/hdtv-1.html), including about 30% of the market that doesn't yet own a TV, which should bring HDTV adoption to around 50% before the end of 2008 (baring a total financial disaster in the US). That last link has a nice chart too

There is no way we won't see at least 80% market penetration of HDTVs by 2011 IMO. Now I would initially assume that BD adoption would lage a bit behind this (leading to 50% market share with DVD perhaps in 2011 or 2012) BUT, it's important to note that BD players actually work with SDTVs. As BDs take up more and more market share, we may see time delayed DVD releases and smaller shelf space, just like what happened with DVD. At that point people might buy a cheap ($50) BD player anyways, to have the latest media (and interactive features!) and be ready for whenever they do get an HDTV. So I'll go out on a limb and say by late 2010 50% of software being sold week over week (and far more in revenue) will be BD, assuming that the format war wraps up quickly and tidely (as appears likely).

[Anthony P]

people we can't compare vhs v. dvd to dvd v. blu-ray. all blu-ray players play dvd, which will not render dvd obsolete like dvd did with vhs, because dvd players couldn't play vhs.

exactly "all blu-ray players play dvd" now if a shopper goes to the store and they can get an up scaling DVD player for 80$ or a BD player for 120$ what would they buy? the vast majority will buy the BD. Because all BD players are DVD players the DVD player market will be doomed to none existence. Now if the only players are BD and someone needs a new player (because their DVD player does not work any more) what will they buy? Now if someone has a BD player at home what format movie will they buy (or rent)?

VHS had staying power (could recorde, many had VHS tapes of content -like home movies) because people needed VHS players. And so even though when the VHS player broke it made sense to buy a new one (can't lose what I had) and so some people where much slower to go DVD.

[kasjun]

holy cow you guys are sure optimistic. here we are at probably 3-4% market penetration and you're already talking 50-90%. you just better hope for 30% and then we'll see what happens. i don't see anybody getting trampled while buying hd movies yet.

[GORT]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

you can still buy CRT tvs at Best Buy and wal-mart too. sony, samsung, sharp, panasonic, etc. don't make CRT anymore, but plenty of cheap manufacturs do.

I think we will all agree that DVD will still hold a majority of the market in 2011 and I don't think studios have the balls to stop releasing on the format that holds the majority of the market. It will piss off millions of consumers and is too much of a finanical risk for the studios, as if it doesn't spur blu-ray adoption, they are out big bucks.

On FEB 17 2009 if you get your tv signal thru an antenna your tv wont work anymore and I am sure that will piss off alot of people but its still going to happen

[ottscay]

I don't know that anyone's talking about 90% of marketshare; even counting only DVD and BD that will take a LONG time. But the fact of the matter is that once BD software profits pass DVD profits (which is long before volume parity) retailers and content providers will start to heavily favor BD as a growth market, and act in their own interest to foster BD adoption. At that point adoption really takes off, and I don't see that as too many years away.

To use your figure, by the time that BD has 30% of the sales volume of DVD it will already be more profitable, and it will be pushed heavily by everyone from B&M stores (think Best Buy and CC salesmen) to content providers ("sure we support DVD, just wait a few extra weeks for it...") to CE manufacturers ("the market no longer justifies making DVD players, everyone who wants one already owns one").

I agree that 3-5 year estimates are on the optimistic side, but they aren't out of the question.

[kasjun]

what if they all keep their analog sets that are working ok? they may just get one of the gov't subsidized set top boxes that convert digital to analog signals.

[oldmike]

You realy under rate HD-TV i think that buy 2009 feb 1/2 of all MAIN TVS will be HD

[kolasi]

the more people that buy hdtvs will mean the more that eventually go blu.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by maximiza

Just like it was stated somewhere else , the internet providers will start charging a premium when they start seeing 100-1000 gb downloads per month for a user. You will not really be saving any money, you might actually be paying more for downloads.

Internet providers = service providers.

Comcast, Warner, Cox and the other cable operators are not bit pipes. With all the talk of downloads, most people seem to forget that the Cableco's and Telco's will have the access, the pipes, and the content to get a huge chuck of the movie distribution market. They'll have a much larger piece of the HD market than Microsoft and Apple, and will be the major competition.

[Anthony P]

holy cow you guys are sure optimistic. here we are at probably 3-4% market penetration and you're already talking 50-90%. you just better hope for 30% and then we'll see what happens. i don't see anybody getting trampled while buying hd movies yet.

well there is always a starting point. my guess is that BD could be 2 digits by the end of the year. What you are missing is that BD sales are increasing while DVD are not. at the beginning of last year we had that the first million disks where sold so less then 1M where sold in 2006, in 2007 there where 5.7 million http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/...slippage_N.htm

Sales multiply every few months, and that is normal in a growing market.

[Anthony P]

what if they all keep their analog sets that are working ok? they may just get one of the gov't subsidized set top boxes that convert digital to analog signals.

that is not how people most people behave. Think about it, where will the person buy this box? will it be mail in to the government? well then god help anyone getting it. Will it be at the store where the salesclerk will tell him "look you can buy this nice flat bigger TV or this box for your old TV that might brake down in a year or two"

[kasjun]

the way i understand it you can get coupons - i think 2 per household that you can redeem for the set top converter. i already know some people who have put in for them so i wouldn't count on them getting a new hdtv. i'm not sure if i had an crt set i would want to keep it but some ppl really get attached to things. kinda getten off topic here tho.

[reider]

The OP had a mistaken amount of households... oh wait, somebody pointed that out already... anyway here is the link for 2006 US census data:
http://www.census.gov/population/soc...06/tabAVG1.xls

Although I voted "yes", I only have one reservation: the state of US/world economy which easily can "make it or break it" for the home video and entertainment industries...

[reider]

And as usual, Anthony P said everything I wanted to say...