Sony: We're on track to ship 1 million PS3 units by year end

[Sidewinder]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

It should be pointed out that Sony has a poor track record with hitting targets on the PS/3. Every projection so far has fallen well short. I want to see them actually hit just ONE of them before I really trust what they are saying going forward:

Spring 2006
2/4 million
1/2 million
400K/1 million

285K/???

Gary

P.S. I know, rather negative of me. But Sony would have buried HD DVD if they had lived up to promises.

I totally agree with your pessimistic view, if they aren't able to deliver 400K at launch day, why should they be able to reach 1Mio. by year's end?
Have they increased their projected delivery rate by 33% since launch day? (Instead of 600K units from 17th Nov. to 31st Dec., they must deliver 800K units)

I really hope they will be able to reach their 6Mio. goal till March 2006. If they don't, we (Europe) may only see PS3 in Fall 2006.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by JonasK

Who is more trustworthy, nexgenwars.com or vgcharts.org ?

At least vgcharts.org breaks down the numbers.

It shows Xbox 360 numbers that seem to be more in line with buzz than the simplistic 2x USA that most places seem to use.

1.73m is lousy, and it explains why Sony figured they could delay the PS/3 in Europe. The PS/3 could be ahead of Xbox 360 in Europe by next fall.

Gary

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

At least vgcharts.org breaks down the numbers.

It shows Xbox 360 numbers that seem to be more in line with buzz than the simplistic 2x USA that most places seem to use.

1.73m is lousy, and it explains why Sony figured they could delay the PS/3 in Europe. The PS/3 could be ahead of Xbox 360 in Europe by next fall.

Gary

The X360 is pretty much a failure in these lands as people generally conform to more Jap style gaming, FPS is popular, but it does not come close to RPG, and Football (soccer) games, which Playstations seem to be best at.

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by Blackraven

Current statistics at the nextgenwars.com site point out to 422k units sold (as of time of post). That's only an 8k difference. It's very scary.

Way far from the 21k daily average that someone else posted yesterday.

ey I posted that average a week ago!


I did write a newer post about that tho, on the other thread (that nobody replied to btw ;-P) but since this thread seems almost a continuation about that topic (console numbers), I split/merged all those posts into Petra's thread.. If confused, read from the top, it'll make more sense .. honest

And I think http://vgcharts.org/ numbers should be more accurate and informative as they at least divide the numbers for Japan, America, and other. Better tracking that way.

[Blackraven]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

ey I posted that average a week ago!


I did write a newer post about that tho, on the other thread (that nobody replied to btw ;-P) but since this thread seems almost a continuation about that topic (console numbers), I split/merged all those posts into Petra's thread.. If confused, read from the top, it'll make more sense .. honest

And I think http://vgcharts.org/ numbers should be more accurate and informative as they at least divide the numbers for Japan, America, and other. Better tracking that way.

Oh yeah, I just read your post about the nosediving from 20-21k to around the 8k figure. This was after I read dialog_gvf's post.

Right now, it's at 429k over at nexgenwars.com site (as of time of post).

Perhaps, I'll start looking at the VG charts site and also, maybe I'll keep a bit of watch on nexgenwars.com for they have the super-conservative targets.

[sticks]

Originally Posted by Blu-ray San

all new technology will have it's impact on console launches, but Sony was smart to wait for bluray tech and it will be the key to their success int he industry and future.

I expected 1 million to be shipped by years end so to have Sony actually confirm it is no suprise.

Playstation 3's are showing up at my local stores weekly and they are becoming easier to get.

Not so here (northern Ontario) I have a a Samsung blu-ray (the first one sold by my local retailer back in October), because I knew it would be a long wait for PS3.I am on the list at my local Futureshop, but am not holding out a lot of hope before Christmas.Also, a number of friends i've spoken to are on local waiting lists.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Blackraven

Oh yeah, I just read your post about the nosediving from 20-21k to around the 8k figure. This was after I read dialog_gvf's post.

Right now, it's at 429k over at nexgenwars.com site (as of time of post).

Perhaps, I'll start looking at the VG charts site and also, maybe I'll keep a bit of watch on nexgenwars.com for they have the super-conservative targets.

Only for Wii and PS3, the X360 seems to be selling about 100k units/day according to them. I doubt MS can even make 100k units a day to replenish supplies.

[Petra]

PS3 sold 50,171

total units sold so far in Japan
Wii: 435,797
PS3: 238,007
360: 215,477

Sony sold out PS3 as much as they can ship out

[hyperdine]

Update on this...

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6163190...stnews;title;1

Looks like Sony is still on track to ship 2 million by year's end.

[Deciazulado]

The facts:

Dec 5: 375,000: about 21,000 daily on average. I state this on a Blu-ray.com post that day and calculate approx 1,000,000 for years end.

+25,000 units in 3 days (about 8000 daily) =

Dec 8: 400,000: about 19,000 daily on average. I post about the 400,000 number a few minutes after reaching it.

+ 14,000 units in 2 days (about 7000 daily) =

Dec 10: 414,000: about 18,000 daily on average. I make my post about 40,000 units sold in the last 5 days, and where is this nosedive from 21,000 units daily to 8,000 daily coming from?

+35,000 units in 4 days (about 9000 daily) =

Dec 14: 449,000: about 17,000 daily on average. I'm posting right now ;D

ok.

Then Petra puts up the numbers for last week in Japan only:

50,000 units in 7 days in Japan. About 7000 daily. 7000 daily in Japan. you got that?


According to nexgenwars.com you can see that for them, in the last 4 days 35,000 units sold (9000 daily), on the last 6 days, 49,000 units sold (8000 daily), on the last 9 days 64,000 units sold (7000 daily), or in the 6 day period I posted numbers that correspond to the 7 days on Petra's Japan week numbers, 39,000 units sold (7000 daily) (numbers have been rounded to nearest thousand)

The question:

So.. has nexgenwars.com stopped counting numbers from America (and the rest of the world), or are we to believe from their numbers that while Japan alone is selling 7000 units daily, elsewhere, the US included, only from 0 to 2000 units per day are being sold (1000 on average)? That's less than 20 per US State and territories!

The conspiracy:

Maybe I shoulda kept my mouth shut about the nexgenwars.com daily numbers so THEY woudn't have noticed

Tam Ta Tán Tan!

[theknub]

^^hehe, using amazon numbers again

nice analysis deci.

[Blackraven]

If those estimates are true, then right now, we are at 700k total units sold.

I tried computing the predictions by myself and here's what I've found out.

By using super-conservative figures for Japan (a constant 7000 units per day) and N. America (10,000 units per day :P) starting today up to Dec.31, there are around 17 days left before the month ends.

So, here's what I computed:

Japan
7000 x 17 = 119,000 units

North America
10000 x 17 = 170,000 units

Add these up: 700,000 + 119,000 + 170,000 = 989,000 units.

Not bad. Even if it is not enough, you can just suffice the remaining 10-11k units from Christmas holiday shopping.

But wait.....what if I included the Japanese sales from Dec. 11-14? (remember, I didn't add these up yet with my previous figure.)

So if I add those four days from Japan, it would be : 989,000 + 28,000 = 1,017,000 units.

And you have your 1m units right there

Of course, since I used "constant" daily sales estimates, I didn't take into account that the units per day would increase due to the Christmas and New Year's buying spree. If that happens, then the better

I didn't include Hong Kong and Taiwan yet :P (which are the only countries that sell Asian version PS3s so far).

I estimate that they contribute around 500-1000 per week (for both Taiwan and Hong Kong combined).

Since November 17 up to Dec. 31, I would estimate that they would contribute around AT LEAST 3,500 units or probably up to 7,000 units.

So yeah, at least we are guaranteed for 1 million units by the end of the year.

Originally Posted by hyperdine

Update on this...

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6163190...stnews;title;1

Looks like Sony is still on track to ship 2 million by year's end.

As much as I want it to happen, this is IMPOSSIBLE right now.

You can't expect a minimum of 2 million sold because no one knows as to how much would sales increase this holiday season. No one can fully predict as to how much average sales per day would increase as we approach the 3rd week of the month and probably up until the last week of the year.

So, to put it simply, it is not a question of "if" (since we can expect that week 3 and 4 would have higher sales increases than all other previous weeks) but rather on "how many" (rate of increase within the period).

I do wish though for a 2 million because it doesn't put much pressure on Sony to fulfill their 5-6 million target by March next year. But it appears that 2 million may too impossible to achieve for the year-end.

I guess we can hope that for the three months next year, Sony would have to sell AT LEAST 1.5 million units per month. That would then give you a total of 5.5 million which is in-line with Sony's 5-6 million said target.

Enough to give XBOX 360 a run for its money and a threat that they would never forget (hey it rhymes too)

I wish them luck on that