Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by veritas

I feel like 4k has been pretty terrible for studios overall.

Like the difference between vhs and dvd is pretty extreme both in quality and convenience.

the jump from DVD to Blu ray isn't as major but I think most people can see it at least.

Then we enter the era of streaming and things just get messy. I have seen a lot of blu rays then look better then a 4k stream because of compression and the difference between a 4k blu ray and a blu ray is minor enough that I doubt most people can see it.

At least my personal mind set is that blu rays are now inferior so they should cost less and 4k is bearly better then 4k so its not worth paying much more then a blu ray.

Overall my targeted prices went from 10 dollars for a blu ray to not buying blu rays unless they are anime and a few tv shows when in like the 2 dollar range and most of my 4k purchases are in the 2 to 5 to 10 dollar range.

I was always kind of curious if the going rate for movies dropped because of streaming shrinking market share or because 4k never could really sell its self as much of an improvement to the majority of people.

The Revenue Report shows that the Average BD Cost is $21, so people don't want to pay more than this for BD. Which means that 4K Disc is priced out, the Studios will make less of these Discs. 4K UHD will go up in price while BD and DVD will be the main form of Disc Distribution!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by veritas

I feel like 4k has been pretty terrible for studios overall.

Like the difference between vhs and dvd is pretty extreme both in quality and convenience.

the jump from DVD to Blu ray isn't as major but I think most people can see it at least.

Then we enter the era of streaming and things just get messy. I have seen a lot of blu rays then look better then a 4k stream because of compression and the difference between a 4k blu ray and a blu ray is minor enough that I doubt most people can see it.

At least my personal mind set is that blu rays are now inferior so they should cost less and 4k is bearly better then 4k so its not worth paying much more then a blu ray.

Overall my targeted prices went from 10 dollars for a blu ray to not buying blu rays unless they are anime and a few tv shows when in like the 2 dollar range and most of my 4k purchases are in the 2 to 5 to 10 dollar range.

I was always kind of curious if the going rate for movies dropped because of streaming shrinking market share or because 4k never could really sell its self as much of an improvement to the majority of people.

The going rate for movies? I’m paying the same as I always have here in the U.K. New Blu is around £15 and 4K around £25. (£35 for special edition or Steelbook.)

Your comment about little difference between Blu and UHD is a bizarre one in my opinion. What are you watching on, a 14 inch monitor?

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by alchav21

The Revenue Report shows that the Average BD Cost is $21, so people don't want to pay more than this for BD. Which means that 4K Disc is priced out, the Studios will make less of these Discs. 4K UHD will go up in price while BD and DVD will be the main form of Disc Distribution!

It is impressive how rational thought continues to elude you. I will not repeat all the ways your statements are wrong as it has been relayed to you ad nauseum in this thread. You're like Neo in The Matrix, contorting yourself to avoid facts and knowledge.

[Lee A Stewart]

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/resear...ended-4-29-23/

These numbers come from the same sources that the weekly Sales Charts come from: Comscore, who now owns Rentrak which is the company that tracks retail disc sales.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Never really looked into it but I believe Rentrak lumps UHD BD and BD together for average cost.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Never really looked into it but I believe Rentrak lumps UHD BD and BD together for average cost.

If done - it doesn't really affect the pricing that much as UHD-BD is such a small market.

https://dvdandblu-rayreleasereport.b...7_archive.html

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Vilya

After months of trying, I am finally being screened for possible acceptance into a drug trial

thanks for the update and hpope you get in and you get the best results

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Enjoy mate, I can’t I have COVID for the 6th time. No big deal just sore throat and cough.

you need to start taking better care of yourself

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by bhampton

Disney will be yanking content from streaming as it rethinks its costs and strategy

https://deadline.com/2023/05/disney-...nk-1235362374/

Quote - Pulling content off the service goes hand in hand with making less of it, or, as CEO Bob Iger put it on the call, “getting much more surgical about what we make.”

Golly, would be swell if this streaming non sense was profitable. I bet most folks think it's a booming business not one being actively destroyed.

how much content is available is always a delicate balance you want enough to have people keep on paying but too much and all you are doing is increasing your costs.

Maybe this is just getting realized by Disney but other subscription firms have realized this a long time ago.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

how much content is available is always a delicate balance you want enough to have people keep on paying but too much and all you are doing is increasing your costs.

Maybe this is just getting realized by Disney but other subscription firms have realized this a long time ago.

It's not a question of how much content is available. It's all about new content - that's where the big costs come from. Sticking a dozen of your older movies or TV shows onto your streaming service costs a tiny fraction of the production costs for new content.

Netflix spent of $13 billion last year on new content. About the same for Disney+. This is where you can save billions.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Sounds like it’s going to be less value for money. I expect more cheap reality tv and ‘making of’ docs. Reality shows maybe games and quizzes with contestants competing in challenges to win merchandise or such like.

I don't agree with you. Subscription streaming companies need to keep customers dishing out the cash month after month.

If all you have are shows no one wants to watch people will drop it. They need to have one or two "Big" shows that people will hook people to pay and enough interesting shows so people don't feel they are paying that monthly fee just for one show and there is nothing else to watch so they are spending the rest of that time on that other subscription channel.

rationing also helps, because if show X will be there for ever it is easier to say I will cancel now and re-subscribe later when there is more than just X to watch on it.

What a shit show. Still, they might now be able to meet the fabled ‘profit just around the corner’ scenario. (In 2029 or so)

well yeah that is the problem with this discussion of profitability and subscription streaming when it is new the $ brought in by new customers looks like eventually it can grow to profitability. But the bigger and longer you are around the cost of adding new customers grows a lot faster than the that new customer brings in.


It is only by keeping costs in check and hoping enough people will see value in the cost they pay to subscribe.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I have to change horses here. I used to feel like physical media was in danger from streaming but now I just have to feel sorry for all the suckers who thought this streaming business was something that would actually be profitable. I can't feel anything but pity for them now. Some lessons are tough.

I never fealty physical media was in danger, because like with LD or Records it can always work well as niche as long as some people are interested in it.

I have always said EST is harder for profitability because people need to be buying constantly more because the costs keep on increasing (If Joe bought X last year he might want to stream/DL it again so he can watch it this month so the film needs to be there so he can watch it again. Now if Joe buys Y this month that can pay for re dl/streaming X but thye streaming provider needs to have added Y that means more costs.

I still think subscription streaming is the most likely/easy to see profitability over EST but it needs to be well managed and not buy into the insanity that it can grow to profitability. And then since we all tend to be users here, what is more important is how they will get there will it be by finding ways to cut costs (i.e. reduce selections)? will it be by finding ways to increase revenue by member (i.e. raise prices, offer premium tiers that don't increase costs much, advertisement....)

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Don't get too excited guys, Disney and Hulu will take on Netflix...I have them All!

https://www.techradar.com/news/disne...ake-on-netflix

I don't think anyone is too excited, many of these people are paying for Disney+ and are a bit disapointed that Disney trying to save might mean less good stuff for them to watch.

On the other hand your big news to counter balance this is instead of opening Disney+ to watch Disney+ and Hulu (and this article misses ESPN) app they will just have to click on one app for all three, but they will still need to pay the same amounts they are paying now.

For advertisement purposes this can be interesting depending how it works
i.e. Search X, "X is available on service Y that you don't have now do you want to subscribe to Y for $". But I have never heard anyone lament I have to click on Disney+ app icon to watch something on Disney+ or Hulu app icon to watch something on Hulu

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/resear...ended-4-29-23/

These numbers come from the same sources that the weekly Sales Charts come from: Comscore, who now owns Rentrak which is the company that tracks retail disc sales.

That may be the average but I can't remember the last time I paid $21 or more for a regular Blu-ray. UHD discs yes, but it's rare I pay more than $10 or so for a regular Blu-ray.

Him commenting on how much discs cost would be like me commenting on the price of cattle. I can read articles about prices all I want, but it would be foolish of me to comment on how much cattle costs when I have zero real world experience of the market. Much like him and disc. He doesn't purchase them so he can't make informed statements. He just regurgitates what he reads and then posts it here to deride discs.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Is it the end of 2024 already?

Disney has ALWAYS maintained that Disney+ will be profitable by the end of 2024.

But keep ignoring that FACT even though it doesn't fit in your agenda.

Originally Posted by bhampton

2025.... ok that's coming right up. Lets check back on that one.

You said you sold all your Disney stock so I'm happy for you good thinking.

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

No . . . By December 31, 2024. That's the end of the year 2024.

Lee yes they did say they will see a profuitable quarter in 2024

But

1) no one is ignoring the fact they said they will eventually have a profitable quarter. But people are allowed not to gullibly accept that it will happen as fact

2) the issue is 2024 (even the end) is not too far away and the losses Q2 2023 where 659M$ That is why they just said they will seriously cut content to bridge that gap but even that is optimistic IMHO because content is why people subscribe

3) they actually said a fiscal quarter of 2024 not end of 2024. Now I think Q4 is most likely if it happens 9even harder earlier) . but if Q4 is profitable we will only now it in Q1 2025 when the results for Q4 2023 are given.

[veritas]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

how much content is available is always a delicate balance you want enough to have people keep on paying but too much and all you are doing is increasing your costs.

Maybe this is just getting realized by Disney but other subscription firms have realized this a long time ago.

Disney owns the content and knows exactly how much it’s streamed per month. For old content it really shouldn’t be hard for them to pay per stream if it’s unpopular and little watched.

It’s probably more greed. Disney wants to have a streaming service and sell some of its catalog to other streaming seevices as that was basically free money that doesn’t hurt disc sales when a show moves around every few months to a year.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/disney...-narrows-loss/

Notice that revenue is going up. That's over $20 billion a year. So what is Disney doing with that revenue?

paying aws for hosting all that service and paying for content, all of which has been true when Disney got into streaming and won't magical go away in 2024

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I have some good news:

[Show spoiler]I was accepted into the early access clinical trial for Patisiran. I begin the treatment on June 2nd and every three weeks thereafter if I respond well to it. This treatment carries a lengthy list of side effects and it is an ordeal to endure, but it could possibly prolong my life. I have been trying to get this treatment since January. It has been a long and hard road to get here.

good luck

[veritas]

The worst thing for Disney really is the opportunity loss. If you have Disney plus you don’t need to go to theaters it will be on streaming shortly. You don’t need to buy the disc as everything is available to stream and they said before they weren’t going to pull stuff (I guess times have changed). You definitely don’t need to buy it vod as you literally can already watch it for free as long as you’re already subscribing to Disney plus. Streaming has the potential to make a lot of money but it’s at the cost of all the other video avenues.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Ender14

That may be the average but I can't remember the last time I paid $21 or more for a regular Blu-ray. UHD discs yes, but it's rare I pay more than $10 or so for a regular Blu-ray.

Speculation on my part - when a title is released to disc it carriers a MSRP and that price goes into the database.

This site has several options for finding deals on disc. As of today a couple of examples: Lowest Prices here, Newest Deals here.