81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[jcdDigix]

At Amazon we know what's going on. I have nerver purchased hd dud from them and they afre finding way to send me a tantamount hd dud ads & special sales. Something wrong with them, really.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

And the DVD for Planet Earth shot up to number 1 for some reason and it isn't the new one it is the old version. Christmas gifts?

Maybe it got mentioned on some national talk show. I don't know, just trying to figure it out.

--Darin

[JAGUAR1977]

Wow, some real stirrers on here tonight!

[JimSD]

I wonder how meaningful the Amazon numbers are right now. We just read that Shrek the Third was the #1 seller for the week, but right now it is #22 in HD DVD sales at Amazon. Similarly, Ocean's 13 is #25 in Blu-ray at Amazon, but last week's stats had it at #2 (probably) for Blu-ray. Both those numbers seem like they would be hugely abnormal drop offs in only the 2nd week out.

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by cking2729

And what about the weeks following when the $169 and $199 players kick in? What happens then? The gap just slowly closes? The Amazon sale so far this week has kicked our Amazon sales in the arse. We can't BOGO them to death......

We by far have the best titles coming out this holiday, but all the new HD-DVD buyers picking up ancient titles might just cancel out all our awesome new ones.

Well, let us not forget why Blu-Ray leads consistently to begin with...hardware advantage. And that hardware advantage really kicked in when the PS3 came out. Don't forget about the PS3...I mean, they've already sold a couple hundred thousand in the US in November already, and are poised to push upwards of 1.5 million of them through the holiday season. I suppose even up to 2 million, if it mirrors the 360 sales last year.

This isn't HD-DVD increasing hardware versus BD staying static. Not to mention BD will sell standalone players too, though probably not in the number that HD-DVD does. But...dont' discount the PS3 effect. It will hit again and at the very least balance out HD-DVD SAL sales, if not push a more pronounced lead. Video game consoles, much moreso than SAL players (at least based on how DVD players sold)...are known to have enormous spikes in sales in the holiday season post Black Friday.

So the gap won't necessarily close...unless you buy into the PS3 doesn't count as a BD player philosophy or think HD-DVD SALs are going to sell amazing. Obviously attach rate/usage statistics come into play, but PS3 volume plus a smaller SAL for BD is going to continue to drive BD adoption up and up too. BD is a moving target itself.

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by JimSD

I wonder how meaningful the Amazon numbers are right now. We just read that Shrek the Third was the #1 seller for the week, but right now it is #22 in HD DVD sales at Amazon. Similarly, Ocean's 13 is #25 in Blu-ray at Amazon, but last week's stats had it at #2 (probably) for Blu-ray. Both those numbers seem like they would be hugely abnormal drop offs in only the 2nd week out.

Actually no we didn't.
Shrek is #1 for Hd and for DVD, but to be technical they didnt say that it is #1 between hd and blu.

[yakman]

Originally Posted by jsb_hburg

The week before I had expected a large spread but I completely discounted the impact of 10 free HD DVDs that were scanned with each firesale A2 player.

Only 3 were scanned with a sale. 2 are in the box and 5 are the rebate by mail.

I strongly expect Shrek3 to be their 3rd best selling title to date, as the only other family movie they have is the awful Evan Almighty. Those that bought those $99 DUDs need some/any family fare to justify that junk to the wife and kids.

We've survived their big releases by BOGOs. Will the BOGO magic run out?

[blu2]

Originally Posted by darinp2

Maybe it got mentioned on some national talk show. I don't know, just trying to figure it out.

--Darin

I read on another forum that Planet Earth was mentioned on "Oprah" this week.

(I don't know if the HD Version were mentioned... heaven help us if Oprah endorses HD DVD)

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by kowhite

So the gap won't necessarily close...unless you buy into the PS3 doesn't count as a BD player philosophy or think HD-DVD SALs are going to sell amazing. Obviously attach rate/usage statistics come into play, but PS3 volume plus a smaller SAL for BD is going to continue to drive BD adoption up and up too. BD is a moving target itself.

Well, I think a standard estimate is that a PS3 counts as 0.2 of a Blu-ray player in terms of how many movie sales it gives rise to. HD DVD has just sold 90k players. So to match this, 450k PS3 sales would be needed. To maintain Blu-ray's 2:1 ratio, 900k PS3 sales would be needed, just to cancel out the 90k HD DVD player sales.

[cking2729]

Originally Posted by kowhite

So the gap won't necessarily close...unless you buy into the PS3 doesn't count as a BD player philosophy or think HD-DVD SALs are going to sell amazing. Obviously attach rate/usage statistics come into play, but PS3 volume plus a smaller SAL for BD is going to continue to drive BD adoption up and up too. BD is a moving target itself.

Thanks for the follow up. And I definitely don't buy into the "PS3 doesn't count" philosophy, because I am using the PS3 as my Blu-Ray player. Blu-ray was the selling point for me. 35 movies and growing weekly vs only 10 games. I know many that are the same way.

[bbg]

What do you all make of the current Amazon stats?

http://blu-raystats.com/amazonstats....erBy=SalesRank
http://www.hddvdstats.com/amazonstat...erBy=SalesRank

Suddenly HD DVD has more titles in the top 100, and top 1000.

If this is any evidence of what the Neilsen numbers will be I wouldn't be surprised if HD DVD was actually ahead this week ... doh.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by blu2

I read on another forum that Planet Earth was mentioned on "Oprah" this week.

I was thinking of that one. I believe she mentioned before that it was the best thing she has ever seen on television. I don't know if they do repeats, but if they do, maybe it was a repeat. Or maybe she was talking about good Christmas presents. I don't keep up with her show, so don't know.

--Darin

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by NutsAboutPS3

Well, I think a standard estimate is that a PS3 counts as 0.2 of a Blu-ray player in terms of how many movie sales it gives rise to. HD DVD has just sold 90k players. So to match this, 450k PS3 sales would be needed. To maintain Blu-ray's 2:1 ratio, 900k PS3 sales would be needed, just to cancel out the 90k HD DVD player sales.

90k cheap HD-DVD players will not have the same attach rate as early adopters paying top money for their players.

Meanwhile, as Blu-ray hits the mainstream, more PS3 users will buy Blu-ray movies.

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by bbg

What do you all make of the current Amazon stats?

http://blu-raystats.com/amazonstats....erBy=SalesRank
http://www.hddvdstats.com/amazonstat...erBy=SalesRank

Suddenly HD DVD has more titles in the top 100, and top 1000.

If this is any evidence of what the Neilsen numbers will be I wouldn't be surprised if HD DVD was actually ahead this week ... doh.

Amazon stats are honestly a really bad metric to swear by.

[cking2729]

Originally Posted by yakman

We've survived their big releases by BOGOs. Will the BOGO magic run out?

Yes, the BOGO magic will run out, eventually. I, for one, only have so much money to spend on Blu-Rays. While a BOGO is always tempting, there is only so much I can afford, and most consumers are the same way. After multiple weeks, the effect will drop off steep. On top of that, many of the titles are regurgitated. I have looked at a lot of the sales this week, saw the titles, and shrugged and went "meh."

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by bbg

What do you all make of the current Amazon stats?

http://blu-raystats.com/amazonstats....erBy=SalesRank
http://www.hddvdstats.com/amazonstat...erBy=SalesRank

Suddenly HD DVD has more titles in the top 100, and top 1000.

If this is any evidence of what the Neilsen numbers will be I wouldn't be surprised if HD DVD was actually ahead this week ... doh.

They have a sale!

[blu2]

Originally Posted by kowhite

Well, let us not forget why Blu-Ray leads consistently to begin with...hardware advantage. And that hardware advantage really kicked in when the PS3 came out. Don't forget about the PS3...I mean, they've already sold a couple hundred thousand in the US in November already, and are poised to push upwards of 1.5 million of them through the holiday season. I suppose even up to 2 million, if it mirrors the 360 sales last year.

This isn't HD-DVD increasing hardware versus BD staying static. Not to mention BD will sell standalone players too, though probably not in the number that HD-DVD does. But...dont' discount the PS3 effect. It will hit again and at the very least balance out HD-DVD SAL sales, if not push a more pronounced lead. Video game consoles, much moreso than SAL players (at least based on how DVD players sold)...are known to have enormous spikes in sales in the holiday season post Black Friday.

So the gap won't necessarily close...unless you buy into the PS3 doesn't count as a BD player philosophy or think HD-DVD SALs are going to sell amazing. Obviously attach rate/usage statistics come into play, but PS3 volume plus a smaller SAL for BD is going to continue to drive BD adoption up and up too. BD is a moving target itself.

The question is whether the PS3 sales spike the rest of the year is big enough to counter the likely growing standalone market share that HD DVD has.

It will be extremely hard to predict one way or another at this point.

I could see perhaps 250K-300K HD DVD standalones selling in Nov/Dec. Assume 100K Blu Ray standalones, and you'd need perhaps a million PS3s sold to counterbalance. Could be close.

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

90k cheap HD-DVD players will not have the same attach rate as early adopters paying top money for their players.

Meanwhile, as Blu-ray hits the mainstream, more PS3 users will buy Blu-ray movies.

Any idea when this mythical "blu-ray hits mainstream" will happen?
I mean leading for a year with things like the Pirates movies and others is pretty much as good as it will get, the titles will change but the results are pretty standard.
The whole "it will happen" mentality on both sides of this war is just mind numbing.

[cking2729]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I was thinking of that one. I believe she mentioned before that it was the best thing she has ever seen on television. I don't know if they do repeats, but if they do, maybe it was a repeat. Or maybe she was talking about good Christmas presents. I don't keep up with her show, so don't know.

--Darin

There was a recent repeat. And of course the commercial breaks were filled with advertisements for the series on BD and HD. Amazon also sells it for pretty cheap. I honestly didn't expect it to be in the top 10 of all movie sales, though.

[dragons lair]

Originally Posted by bbg

If this is any evidence of what the Neilsen numbers will be I wouldn't be surprised if HD DVD was actually ahead this week ... doh.

I don't think they will win, but I do believe it will be close, which is amazing to me because I ( and everyone else here) thought the numbers would be a lot more favorable to Blu-Ray based on their releases.

This year I was not too worried about, next year makes me wonder, Paramount and Universal have a killer movie schedule next year.