How long will it take for Blu-ray to take over dvd?

[Beta Man]

Originally Posted by AznDreamer

I've read pretty much all posts in this thread and I think everyone here failed to mention something very important here relating to Blu and DVDs. . . . here it is.

There are, and still are, many people who cannot afford a decent Television these days. Yeah, yeah, I know a decent one (32" 720p) is around 300 bucks. But really, there are many who still cannot afford that yet. In order to upgrade to a blu . . . you MUST and you gotta agree with me here on this one, it is a must that you upgrade your TV as well. No point in going Blu if you're going to use this old analog TV from the dinosaur ages (haha). I think upgrading to Blu is rather costly and there are a very good number of people who still cannot afford it. Sony pushed blu-ray format and it's taken over HD-DVD. Since then pretty much all the DVD players have dropped in price tremendously.

Most of the people are getting DVD players now due to their price drops. So the ones who couldn't afford it before can pick one up and get many many DVDs at a bargain store for cheap. Trust me on this because I "know" of people who cannot afford these luxury that we have and I've seen many. Even within my family, I believe my bro and I are the only ones with Blu-rays.

See, even when I have upgraded already, i still haven't "fully" upgraded yet. Why? What about the sound system? I'm not gonna drop 300 dollars for a 1000watts Sony 5.1 system. I want a quality system and a quality one costs just as much as a brand new LED TV, right? So yeah, I need to get a new TV and Sound system but what I have now is okay for the time being. I have other priorities than Blu. Although, I loving collecting blu . . . (at around 300 blu movies) I cannot stop buying them.

So going back to the original question: No i doubt dvds will end any time soon or even in the next 10-15 years. They'll go strong still and co-xists with Blu for a long long time. They can't stop making them because of the demographics of people who cannot afford it yet and I wish someone does a study of how many people have actually upgraded to Blu . . . cuz it'll prove my point!

In order......

Point 1) I disagree with you.... not a "Must" but for most people, they will upgrade to Blu-ray for the PQ, and in that case, the improvement of PQ on a standard Def. CRT. isn't that great (but still there.... less compression)

So, it's not a "Must" but most people will see it as a "Must" so I somewhat agree with you.

Point 2) One reason Blu-ray will take awhile (other than the backwards compatibility) to be the only format home-video is released on, is because of "confusion" regarding technology in general.....

I was at Costco just yesterday, and had to go to Customer Service to get help with something.... and there was a guy returning a "Combo DVD RECORDER/and VHS" and he said it didn't work because of copyright issues etc.... and the lady was telling him (who works there..... so she should have just taken the guys return!) that he might need to use...... "Blu-ray Cassette Tapes" Anyways... the guy returned it, but the lack of knowledge is one stumbling block...... the other is, many people don't see the jump as "necessary" My parents think VHS is fine..... so I doubt they'll ever go from DVD to Blu-ray..... I gave out 4 players this past Christmas as gifts, but they certainly weren't on the receiving end of one........ they just don't care..... and that's fine

Point 3) I would argue a quality one will cost you much more than that.


Point 4) One possibility, will be Downloads/Streaming...... I know people say "It can't compete with Blu-ray" etc etc..... but hear me out...... I think Downloads/Streaming may take over the DVD market, and it will be just Blu-rays, and Streaming/Downloads...... Those who want to own the physical media, and/or those who want the best technical aspects possible, will buy Blu-rays.... those who just want to enjoy the movie, want it to look and sound good, but aren't overly critical (kinda like 720p vs 1080p) will probably enjoy and purchase streaming/Downloads

Downloads may very well put an end to DVDs..... but they don't threaten Blu-ray.

[AznDreamer]

Originally Posted by Beta Man

In order......

Point 1) I disagree with you.... not a "Must" but for most people, they will upgrade to Blu-ray for the PQ, and in that case, the improvement of PQ on a standard Def. CRT. isn't that great (but still there.... less compression)

So, it's not a "Must" but most people will see it as a "Must" so I somewhat agree with you.

Point 2) One reason Blu-ray will take awhile (other than the backwards compatibility) to be the only format home-video is released on, is because of "confusion" regarding technology in general.....

I was at Costco just yesterday, and had to go to Customer Service to get help with something.... and there was a guy returning a "Combo DVD RECORDER/and VHS" and he said it didn't work because of copyright issues etc.... and the lady was telling him (who works there..... so she should have just taken the guys return!) that he might need to use...... "Blu-ray Cassette Tapes" Anyways... the guy returned it, but the lack of knowledge is one stumbling block...... the other is, many people don't see the jump as "necessary" My parents think VHS is fine..... so I doubt they'll ever go from DVD to Blu-ray..... I gave out 4 players this past Christmas as gifts, but they certainly weren't on the receiving end of one........ they just don't care..... and that's fine

Point 3) I would argue a quality one will cost you much more than that.


Point 4) One possibility, will be Downloads/Streaming...... I know people say "It can't compete with Blu-ray" etc etc..... but hear me out...... I think Downloads/Streaming may take over the DVD market, and it will be just Blu-rays, and Streaming/Downloads...... Those who want to own the physical media, and/or those who want the best technical aspects possible, will buy Blu-rays.... those who just want to enjoy the movie, want it to look and sound good, but aren't overly critical (kinda like 720p vs 1080p) will probably enjoy and purchase streaming/Downloads

Downloads may very well put an end to DVDs..... but they don't threaten Blu-ray.

Thanks for your arguments. Very well put together. Sometimes it's great to listen to other people who have great knowledge. Anyway, rock on!

[Jwilly019]

Originally Posted by Imrahil2001

I just refuse to go the download-only route, whatever happens. Absolutely refuse.

Ditto. That being said, I fully expect Blu-ray to be the last disc-based media format. Which is why I believe I am purchasing a lot more titles than I ever did with DVD.

Justin

[Batman1980]

Now that analog is gone and digital has taken over, I expect DVD to be overtaken by late 2011, early 2012 at the latest.

[Beta Man]

Originally Posted by Wolverine1980

Now that analog is gone and digital has taken over, I expect DVD to be overtaken by late 2011, early 2012 at the latest.

I'm confused as to what correlation you are making with Digital television, and DVD?

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by Beta Man

I'm confused as to what correlation you are making with Digital television, and DVD?

LOL I just think the death of CRT will force people to re-evaluate how they watch movies at home and that means upgrading from DVD to blu-ray.

[ronaldia]

the answer is simple:all DVD will change to Blu ray when market demands it,when more people use Blu ray player and when the world more peace.I am sure Blu ray demands also rise

[ninel]

Originally Posted by Astrakan

I understand this. My suspicion is that home video will move towards a streaming rental system as opposed to an owning system. Meaning, in the future people will simply pay a monthly fee to have access to an online library of tens of thousands of movies at the click of a button, as opposed to storing their own library of purchased movies.

Perhaps I'm underestimating the desire of people to own their media, but I think that (especially for the generation that's currently in the 12-15 age bracket) people in general will come to appreciate the convenience of the streaming system I explained above over the desire to own the movies.

Not only does streaming a movie make the download speed less of an issue since the downloading will happen as you watch it, but as download speeds increase over the dozen years or so, this will become even less of an issue.

Could be I'm wrong. Time will tell.

KM

I don't really think so. Just imagine Saturday evening tens of thousand of people jumping for HD film stream, the networks will be jamed. Just my oppinion.

[ninel]

Originally Posted by nekz

Hard to imagine DVDs being in production in 2020. That said, I hope DVDs stay around for a while and delay blu-ray taking over for as long as possible. Then I won't be as tempted to convert my collection to the next format after blu-ray. :^)

Hard to imagine that bluray itself won't become obsolete as well in 2020.

Just check on ebay, how many people still buy quality audio tapes (that you don't find anymore in the stores), that means they still use them (apart from collecting them, for which I think one piece is enough but not 10pcs packages). I myself have music that I own digitally on CD, MD or SACD, and I make a copy on metal tape to listen. Particularly on hits from 80's, it's like you just go back in time and listen how you were listening in your childhood.

MDs are still popular in Japan, and will be for a while. I am myself an MD lover.

Many people buy vinyls, lately I noticed a new trend, more and more titles come on the market.

I think all types of media will coexist for a looong time.

[tilallr1]

Originally Posted by Beta Man

Downloads may very well put an end to DVDs..... but they don't threaten Blu-ray.

Well that all depends ... on how cheap Google Gigabit Broadband is.

[AndyTheZombie]

I too think that it will take awhile for blu ray to take over DVD. I still and always will buy DVDs of movies that are rare or OOP.

[vinnaboy]

If/when blu rays do become mainstream, by then something new will replace it and I really hope downloading/streaming doesn't replace BD!

[Clark Kent]

I could see a two-tier market, where almost all major releases are blu-ray only, with minor titles only getting a dvd release. That is what appears to be happening now.

[AndyTheZombie]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

I could see a two-tier market, where almost all major releases are blu-ray only, with minor titles only getting a dvd release. That is what appears to be happening now.

What Are you talking about? most of the movies are coming to blu-ray and Dvd.

[cstyle2000]

There seems to be a lot of interesting points regarding Blu-rays overtaking DVDs, co-existing with DVDs, etc. This is my opinion regarding the issue:

Before streaming downloads, BDs, DVDs, VHS, Betamax, and LaserDiscs were home film reel projectors. The progression rate from home film reel projectors to Betamax, VHS, and LaserDiscs was approx. 30+ years. The progression rate from VHS to DVD was approx. 20 years. The progression rate from DVD to Blu-ray was approx. 10 years. And now here we are with game systems, PCs, and other devices that are capable of streaming downloads a mere 2-3 years or so after the release of Blu-rays (and maybe even possible at the same time as the release of Blu-rays). As can be seen, the progression rate of advancing technology has been cut down considerably over the past half century or so.

Yet, even though the progression rate continues to decrease in length, the co-existence of older and newer media has always been existent. I'm sure it took many years for people to get rid of their old film reel projectors in favor of a VHS player. I'm sure that in the 70s (when VHS came out) that some films were still released on reels. Same is true about DVDs. It wasn't until the mid 2000s that VHS was more-or-less completely phased out in favor of DVDs (approx. 8-10 years after DVDs were introduced in the mid-late 90s). So if history is any guide, even though there are two new ways of collecting movies (Blu-ray and streaming downloads), DVD will still be around for a while longer until Blu-ray demand equals or succeeds DVD demand and people are comfortable enough to make the full conversion to Blu-ray. Equally, I'm also sure that Blu-ray will also be around a long while before people either convert entirely to streaming downloads or some other new form of hard disc media.

Personally, I'm happy that I converted to Blu-ray! And I hope I'm right about it continuing to be existent for a long while.