How long until Blu wipes out DVD?

[jermwhl]

So now that the format war is coming to a slow but eventual death, how long do you think it will be before Blu-ray wipes DVD's off the shelf?

I think a major factor that will urge the process along is the FCC's mandate to go digital. Feb. 17, 2009 will require all stations to be airing digital only content (in the U.S.), which hopefully most of them will be in HD. Once most consumers have HDTV's in their home, the demand for HD media should also increase substantially. I can say without a doubt DVD will be here for at least that long, but I would expect by 2011 DVD would be mainly hard to find in at least B&M stores.

To clarify- i'm referring to DVD, not HD-DVD...we all know HD-DVD is on it's way out!

[Coltboy]

Like i said before my local Walmart has a few BD, if wally world caved in and stared putting them out in local stores, then THE END IS NEAR! LOL Thought this may be an isolated thing, it is a good sign.

[Garconis]

Originally Posted by Coltboy

Like i said before my local Walmart has a few BD, if wally world caved in and stared putting them out in local stores, then THE END IS NEAR! LOL Thought this may be an isolated thing, it is a good sign.

They were out in Walmart when I got the PS3 on release day.

[babyBlu]

Too many people own dvd's for it become obsolete in the next few years, so I say 5-6 years at least, unfortunately

[donricouga]

Blu-ray versus DVD is an uphill battle. You have to factor in the cost of not only buying a blu-ray player but Buying an HDTV to take advantage of the 1080p picture. Some might even want to upgrade their sound system to take advantage of the lossless codecs and uncompressed PCM audio. I know I did. This isn't cheap compared to buying a big crappy tv, a HTIB and a $40 dvd player. 5-6 years is MINIMUM

[Maximus]

I chose never, but would have picked 10 years+ if the option was there.

DVD has only just succeeded in 'wiping out' VHS 10 years after its introduction, and VHS was crap. DVD is still OK for most people so longer than 10 years I would say.

[WickyWoo]

A very very Very long time

6-10 years minimum.

DVD succeeded in wiping out VHS in 2004, when stores started dumping the sections. If you mean killing it totally, that was last year. But it was a fish flopping on the dock 3 years ago.

[Chad Varnadore]

DVD will be around as long as a large portion of homes still have standard def TVs, whether as primary or secondary displays. But HDTV is expected to really take off in 2009. So it may not be too many years later when we start seeing DVD relegated to the bottom shelves.

Kagan Research forsee's high def packaged media (BD) outselling DVD by 2012. By 2015 they expect BD sales to dominate almost 70% of the market

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by Chad Varnadore

DVD will be around as long as a large portion of homes still have standard def TVs, whether as primary or secondary displays. But HDTV is expected to really take off in 2009. So it may not be too many years later when we start seeing DVD relegated to the bottom shelves.

Kagan Research forsee's high def packaged media (BD) outselling DVD by 2012. By 2015 they expect BD sales to dominate almost 70% of the market

I agree with Chad. And I'm embarassed to say that one of the three votes for 1-2 years is mine. I was "speed reading" and assumed the poll was about HD-DVD. Sorry.

[Coltboy]

Originally Posted by Garconis

They were out in Walmart when I got the PS3 on release day.

It is a big deal for me cause in my town they had nothing in the way of BD and hearing stuff about walmart and what they do vs BD i was happy

[jorg]

Originally Posted by donricouga

Blu-ray versus DVD is an uphill battle. You have to factor in the cost of not only buying a blu-ray player but Buying an HDTV to take advantage of the 1080p picture. Some might even want to upgrade their sound system to take advantage of the lossless codecs and uncompressed PCM audio. I know I did. This isn't cheap compared to buying a big crappy tv, a HTIB and a $40 dvd player. 5-6 years is MINIMUM

IF THERES a enoug players on the market then scince blu-rays and a mass production are cheaper then dvds to make then we might just see standed def stuff on bblu-rays

[movies3]

i say prolly 3-5 yrs, first you have to have HD tvs in ppls houses and until that happnes its going to take awhile for blu-ray to be the only format.

[coolwavepic]

I kind of disagree with all of you who say DVD's end is near. There is a lot of SD stuff out on DVD (like TV shows, ect) that arent in HD or probabaly never will be in HD. I could be wrong but wouldnt it be stupid to put SD material on blu-ray? I think DVD will be around ALOT longer then we think.

[jermwhl]

Originally Posted by coolwavepic

I kind of disagree with all of you who say DVD's end is near. There is a lot of SD stuff out on DVD (like TV shows, ect) that arent in HD or probabaly never will be in HD. I could be wrong but wouldnt it be stupid to put SD material on blu-ray? I think DVD will be around ALOT longer then we think.

Yes and no. When Blu becomes alot more mainstream, the cost will settle to that of DVD. When that happens, there will no reason to keep the DVD format. With prices the same, they can begin putting SD titles on blu-ray, and entire seasons of shows onto 1 disc BD's. IMO

[clyon]

15 years.

First most people do NOT even own a HDtv in the US (28% have HDtv's). When that hits 100% & people are educated enough know the diffrence of HD vs SD then Hi def will take over until then Hi Def will just sit in the back waiting. + Many people that get an HDtv think as soon as they hook up there new HDtv everything turns HD. There are a lot of dumb people out there.

[john_1958]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

I chose never, but would have picked 10 years+ if the option was there.

DVD has only just succeeded in 'wiping out' VHS 10 years after its introduction, and VHS was crap. DVD is still OK for most people so longer than 10 years I would say.

and as long as movie companies keep making SD dvd DVDS i will never die out

[aaronwt]

BD will never supplant DVD. On Demand and video downloads will supplant DVD before BD/HD DVD ever will.
The sales of BD/HD DVD are just pathetic. If you combine all titles sold from both formats, they don't even equal the weekly sales of one good DVD title. The next gen formats sales are nothing but pathetic. You average person knows very little about High Definition and nothing about BD/HD DVD.

[babyBlu]

Originally Posted by clyon

There are a lot of dumb people out there.

Originally Posted by aaronwt

BD will never supplant DVD. On Demand and video downloads will supplant DVD before BD/HD DVD ever will.
The sales of BD/HD DVD are just pathetic. If you combine all titles sold from both formats, they don't even equal the weekly sales of one good DVD title. The next gen formats sales are nothing but pathetic. You average person knows very little about High Definition and nothing about BD/HD DVD.

I agree with both of you stating that the average person has no clue, but 5-6 years is a long time for people to learn. It takes a lot to get the ball rolling, but once it does, sales should increase a lot. I think in 5 or 6 years, most will have an HDTV, the prices are getting so low everyone should be able to afford one in a few years. By then, retailers should also be saturated with high-end and low-end blu-ray players. I would be surprised if DVD's were still being made by 2018.

[Chad Varnadore]

Originally Posted by aaronwt

BD will never supplant DVD. On Demand and video downloads will supplant DVD before BD/HD DVD ever will.
The sales of BD/HD DVD are just pathetic. If you combine all titles sold from both formats, they don't even equal the weekly sales of one good DVD title. The next gen formats sales are nothing but pathetic. You average person knows very little about High Definition and nothing about BD/HD DVD.

I'm not following you logic. DVD sales were just as "pathetic" after only 1 year in the market. Why would you expect BD to be even more of an overnight success when the majority of homes currently aren't even HD equiped? The market is going HD though. There's no stopping it. And as it does more and more people will jump on. Whether it can continue to outpace DVD, time will tell. But as of right now BD has surpassed several milestones much faster than DVD did. And DVD is the previous record holder in terms of sales growth of packaged media.

You also have to consider that there are a lot of people that still don't have or want DVD. They're perfectly happy watching cable on thier 20" TV. In fact I know several older people still watching in black and white. And one person that just gave my neighbor their brand new 50" HDTV, because it was too complicated for them and they preferred the smaller size of their previous set. My point is that HDTV doesn't have to reach even 50% of the population for BD to be overwhelmingly successful. It only has to reach the percentage of the population that drove DVD. And many of those already own HDTV or are looking forward to it.

Like DVD, BD appeals to people that want to own physical product, the added experience that such product can offer as well as a level of quality that VOD will not likely reach in the next five years. When HD quality VOD is more efficient, it'll probably be lucky to look as good as the low bitrate VC-1 encodes that are being done now. There is no clear evidence to support that VOD will attract the same customers as packaged media. From what I've read, current studies indicate it appeals to an entirely different clicke more than home video collectors. Regardless, BD has time to be the next big thing before VOD takes off. That's whay Microsoft is so afraid of.

[rogue_zero_one]

i'd have to say at least 10+ years. HDTV's still need to be adopted by the majority of the population and it hasn't yet (but it will eventually) and until the majority of homes have an HDTV then the sales of Blu-ray will start climbing. But expect DVD to be around for 10+ years.