How long until Blu wipes out DVD?

[aaronwt]

BD will never supplant DVD. On Demand and video downloads will supplant DVD before BD/HD DVD ever will.
The sales of BD/HD DVD are just pathetic. If you combine all titles sold from both formats, they don't even equal the weekly sales of one good DVD title. The next gen formats sales are nothing but pathetic. You average person knows very little about High Definition and nothing about BD/HD DVD.

[babyBlu]

Originally Posted by clyon

There are a lot of dumb people out there.

Originally Posted by aaronwt

BD will never supplant DVD. On Demand and video downloads will supplant DVD before BD/HD DVD ever will.
The sales of BD/HD DVD are just pathetic. If you combine all titles sold from both formats, they don't even equal the weekly sales of one good DVD title. The next gen formats sales are nothing but pathetic. You average person knows very little about High Definition and nothing about BD/HD DVD.

I agree with both of you stating that the average person has no clue, but 5-6 years is a long time for people to learn. It takes a lot to get the ball rolling, but once it does, sales should increase a lot. I think in 5 or 6 years, most will have an HDTV, the prices are getting so low everyone should be able to afford one in a few years. By then, retailers should also be saturated with high-end and low-end blu-ray players. I would be surprised if DVD's were still being made by 2018.

[rogue_zero_one]

i'd have to say at least 10+ years. HDTV's still need to be adopted by the majority of the population and it hasn't yet (but it will eventually) and until the majority of homes have an HDTV then the sales of Blu-ray will start climbing. But expect DVD to be around for 10+ years.

[Mystique]

I believe it will take over DVD's in 3-4 years, but by then theres going to be new technology out that's better than Blu-Ray.

[movies3]

Originally Posted by Mystique

I believe it will take over DVD's in 3-4 years, but by then theres going to be new technology out that's better than Blu-Ray.

im hoping not to see that for another 5 yrs at least

[Chad Varnadore]

Originally Posted by Mystique

I believe it will take over DVD's in 3-4 years, but by then theres going to be new technology out that's better than Blu-Ray.

There's already greater storage. But, there won't be a new optical disc technology ahead unless BD isn't bringing in sales. If the format is successful enough to succeed DVD, that won't be the case. Studios aren't likely to jump on a new format if the one they're currently supporting has proven profitable. They'd be hurting growth potential of both in the same way as Warner and Paramount is now. The industry can't support it at a time that HDTV still won't be as large a fixture as SDs. It needs one format to encourage growth not just of HD packaged media, but of HDTV in general.

Displays will likely settle on 1080p for the forseeable future, as even that can be argued is overkill for 50" and smaller displays and higher resolutions don't offer as much value outside of commercial venues. With Java, BD should be able to keep the format fresh for some time, if they're creative enough.

[justinbaily]

Well prices must come down because while target has big fish SD @ $10 amazon has the BD version @ $19.99. Even after that with car dvd players and kid dvd's
of elmo and co. not really needing the HD treatment there may always be vegie tales,baby einstein and the like. When viewing nemo care because you watch it
but especially for car baby shows i couldn't justify caring-until BD surplants dvd
as the standard which would make it cheaper.

As for me i bought my ps-3 60 gig on jan 2 this year and havn't bought a sd dvd
sience. All i buy is BD stuff now. Personally i order it all from amazon.

Heck when we're done messing about with this format war BD will be cheaper
because it will be the standard.

[The Don]

I say 5-6 years until DVD is gone...

[Rob Tomlin]

5-6 years seems about right to me....to exceed dvd sales (not necessarily wipe them out).

[Chad Varnadore]

Originally Posted by aaronwt

BD will never supplant DVD. On Demand and video downloads will supplant DVD before BD/HD DVD ever will.
The sales of BD/HD DVD are just pathetic. If you combine all titles sold from both formats, they don't even equal the weekly sales of one good DVD title. The next gen formats sales are nothing but pathetic. You average person knows very little about High Definition and nothing about BD/HD DVD.

I'm not following you logic. DVD sales were just as "pathetic" after only 1 year in the market. Why would you expect BD to be even more of an overnight success when the majority of homes currently aren't even HD equiped? The market is going HD though. There's no stopping it. And as it does more and more people will jump on. Whether it can continue to outpace DVD, time will tell. But as of right now BD has surpassed several milestones much faster than DVD did. And DVD is the previous record holder in terms of sales growth of packaged media.

You also have to consider that there are a lot of people that still don't have or want DVD. They're perfectly happy watching cable on thier 20" TV. In fact I know several older people still watching in black and white. And one person that just gave my neighbor their brand new 50" HDTV, because it was too complicated for them and they preferred the smaller size of their previous set. My point is that HDTV doesn't have to reach even 50% of the population for BD to be overwhelmingly successful. It only has to reach the percentage of the population that drove DVD. And many of those already own HDTV or are looking forward to it.

Like DVD, BD appeals to people that want to own physical product, the added experience that such product can offer as well as a level of quality that VOD will not likely reach in the next five years. When HD quality VOD is more efficient, it'll probably be lucky to look as good as the low bitrate VC-1 encodes that are being done now. There is no clear evidence to support that VOD will attract the same customers as packaged media. From what I've read, current studies indicate it appeals to an entirely different clicke more than home video collectors. Regardless, BD has time to be the next big thing before VOD takes off. That's whay Microsoft is so afraid of.

[john_1958]

Originally Posted by aaronwt

BD will never supplant DVD. On Demand and video downloads will supplant DVD before BD/HD DVD ever will.
The sales of BD/HD DVD are just pathetic. If you combine all titles sold from both formats, they don't even equal the weekly sales of one good DVD title. The next gen formats sales are nothing but pathetic. You average person knows very little about High Definition and nothing about BD/HD DVD.

Sd-dvds are just plain dumb period just like downloading

[Ender]

I would say it depends on the studios. If they continue to fully support DVD in the future, then I think DVD will continue to be the mainstream format, with BD being for enthusiasts, not unlike the way VHS and LD were able to coexist. If they want BD to become mainstream, prices for both hardware and software need to drop, and DVDs should be gradually phased out as HDTV sales increase.

[gandley]

HDTV penetration in the USa stands at 30% now, so when its like 95%, then you can talk about killing DVD.

Until then lets just kill off HD-DVD

http://crunchgear.com/2007/06/27/int...d-dvd-is-dead/

[159753]

In my humble opinion, the death of DVDs will be long time, probably as far as 2025 before people think they are a corpse.

The current death of cassettes, like audio tapes and VHS is a bit premature at the moment, as people are still using them, many people I know have VCRs mainly for recording stuff off the telly like soaps, so they can watch them later, plus they are simpler to use and cheaper compared to a DVD recorder.

You have to remember that HDTV has only been around for a few years, and even many public broadcasters like RTÉ (Ireland), ARD (Germany), RTP (Portugal) broadcast _only_ in SD (576i), so having them on Blu-ray is a bit pointless. The HD channels by the BBC and SVT are only trials, so anything can happen.

[movies3]

Originally Posted by 159753

In my humble opinion, the death of DVDs will be long time, probably as far as 2025 before people think they are a corpse.

The current death of cassettes, like audio tapes and VHS is a bit premature at the moment, as people are still using them, many people I know have VCRs mainly for recording stuff off the telly like soaps, so they can watch them later, plus they are simpler to use and cheaper compared to a DVD recorder.

You have to remember that HDTV has only been around for a few years, and even many public broadcasters like RTÉ (Ireland), ARD (Germany), RTP (Portugal) broadcast _only_ in SD (576i), so having them on Blu-ray is a bit pointless. The HD channels by the BBC and SVT are only trials, so anything can happen.

i dont think it will take to 2025 because by then bluray will be old news IMO.

[docjan_uk]

That it will be old news is somewhat besides the point.
Whilst I don't think there will be an appreciable presence in 2025, I can certainly see DVD still around in some form for atleast a decade or so.
Technologies tend to follow overlapping S curves.
New tech arrives, gradually improves and takes off, then really improves in the midphase which is the middle of the s, then tails off.
Meanwhile somewhere around the middle to 2/3'rds portion another S begins.
Always been the way though the next version could quite possibly be pure downloads.

Some say you can't fit enough through the pipes, well in a decade to 15 years, the average pipe into the home is going to be pretty fat.