Blu-ray Blows Away HD DVD

[What'sHD]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

I wouldn't bet on that logic. I would "alienate" 30% of a "small buying base" in a heartbeat, in order to have one format, and exponentially increase the size of the buying base.

If WB goes to BD and causes the death of hd-dvd, they need the HDM consumer base to Quickly grow by about 50% to offset the effects of the loss of hd-dvd disc buyers.

Let's assume some % of current hd-dvd owners move on and buy a BD player of some sort. That leaves some more growth required to reach parity.

That could come from fence-straddlers who:

1. Have PS3s (for gaming) and only now feel safe buying BDs as a confirmed format

2. People who can afford and want a BD player but were waiting for one format before jumping in.

3. Existing BD owners may also buy more though this would be a small increase. I know I would...

I think if WB's internal metrics show enough slack in demand to make up for lack of hd-dvd sales, they should switch and pronto. Wonder what numbers that have...

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by What'sHD

If WB goes to BD and causes the death of hd-dvd, they need the HDM consumer base to Quickly grow by about 50% to offset the effects of the loss of hd-dvd disc buyers.


I think if WB's internal metrics show enough slack in demand to make up for lack of hd-dvd sales, they should switch and pronto. Wonder what numbers that have...

I agree with your assessment for the most part. A couple of points, though:

1) We're just coming out of the fourth quarter (busiest shopping season) and going into the first (slowest). The real money won't start coming in until we approach next fourth quarter, and I think everyone believes format sales will be WAY up by then if one format were gone.

2) How do you define "parity" with the present? Again, you can't compare February sales to December sales (December's will be far, far higher). Typically, you would compare year-to-year same month sales, but you can't really do that with Blu-ray as there are many times more owners this year than last -- so this year's sales should be much hgiher anyway.

So, I would think in the very short-term, they would have to assume a small drop in HDM sales by making a play, but that the year-end result will be a positive one due to a big pick-up by the fourth quarter.

[What'sHD]

^^

Yup, I agree its hard to compare fairly. That is why I wonder what kind of internal stats WB has about 1) likelihood of fence-sitters buying the ONE high def format if hddvd dies and 2) latent demand for HDM. Those stats will help guide the decision.


Imo, if the stats about fence-sitters and latent demand indicate market is about ready to explode and needs only the trigger of ONE format, then WB has an easy decision and only needs to parlay the best $ deal from BDA.

If the stats are not unequivocal, then WB is likely to look for short-term exclusivity contracts, after the expiry of which they can revisit the stats. (This may have been what Paramount did or how they justified it internally when the **it hit the fan.)


If the latter (stats inconclusive), then its only a matter of the bigger bribe Not fair, but such is life.

If it is the former, WB is still likely to pretend its the latter to get the best deal from the BDA.

[oldmike]

Originally Posted by What'sHD

^^

Yup, I agree its hard to compare fairly. That is why I wonder what kind of internal stats WB has about 1) likelihood of fence-sitters buying the ONE high def format if hddvd dies and 2) latent demand for HDM. Those stats will help guide the decision.


Imo, if the stats about fence-sitters and latent demand indicate market is about ready to explode and needs only the trigger of ONE format, then WB has an easy decision and only needs to parlay the best $ deal from BDA.

If the stats are not unequivocal, then WB is likely to look for short-term exclusivity contracts, after the expiry of which they can revisit the stats. (This may have been what Paramount did or how they justified it internally when the **it hit the fan.)


If the latter (stats inconclusive), then its only a matter of the bigger bribe Not fair, but such is life.

If it is the former, WB is still likely to pretend its the latter to get the best deal from the BDA.

the paramount deal was not short if you ask me hell
one year is long if you talk about any thing high tech

[Kairav]

Take out the fine china, chill the lemonade and tie a yellow ribbon around the oak tree coz BLU is coming home.

[Joon]

Preachin to the choir....