Will Blu-ray ever capture 50% of the market?

[Palanthian]

Actually I think a lot of people in 2009 will have HDTVs, cause many people are under the assumption that their TV will magically die after all the channels change to the new tuners. So when they're buying replacement TVs, more than likely a majority of them will be HDTVs. I'd give no less 1/2 in my prediction of mid-late 2009.

I think eventually Blu-ray will have 50%, especially now that everyone is pretty sure of Blu-victory. Many people I work with who held off from buying any HD format, immediately after Warner became exclusive said "I'm buying a Blu-ray player, which one should I get?" I'd say by mid-late 2010. Cause 2009 will be when most people I think will have HDTVs and their friends will have blu and they'll be like holy cow, I want that and I now have the perfect TV to watch it on!

[PeteS]

We heard many of these factors at the birth of DVD. We argued with those who thought DVD adoption would be gradual and we said it would take off surprisingly fast. DVD proved us right.

The biggest differences here are that DVD was a broader technological step - more recognisably so; and yet Blu-ray maintains backward compatibility.

But Blu-ray rides on some other waves as well, which are inexorable:

1. 2009's DTV change promotes HD adoption and hence the desire for HD media; sets capable of showing that 'Blu-ray is way better than DVD' become less expensive and commonplace;

2. The transition to 16:9 (wide) screens tends to make existing DVD libraries obsolete, hence people will replace their collections (yes I know you videophiles always bought anamorphic DVDs, but most didn't);

3. As Blu-ray becomes the accepted standard, and convergence is still an issue - desktop PCs will ship with it, notebooks also - average people replacing old DVD players will say 'why not' to a Blu-ray upgrade.

4. Home video camcorders become increasingly HD and you can't (properly) show these HD home movies on a DVD.

So my prediction is that this will accelerate and surprise most people.

Health of the economy is the one possible hold-up but I also remember that was the wild card when we projected DVD back in 1996 too. As far as that goes I think our economy needs to be more steadily watching productivity levels rather than stock markets watching themselves and things will go smoother. Will that happen? I hope so.

[mtl007]

It is all a matter of pricing.

If the price of Blu is almost the same price as SD (within a couple of dollars), then I would say anybody who has a player will buy the blu version. This seems to be the situation in the last 12 months while we have competition.

I do believe the price of HD TV will come down to a certain point where it doesn't make sense to manufacture the old CRT. CRT in terms of cost for transportation, storage, profit-per-unit-sold will be squeezed. Just not so long ago, LCD / plasma were not considered main stream and will never be afforable, look at now, it is certainly getting into a lot more homes at a much faster rate than the previous cycle (from BW to color).

VHS tapes are still being produced is the same reason why SD-DVD will still be available in the forseeable future.

[Kayne314]

It is a matter of educating your family and neighbors. Have a Blu-ray movie night. I had my family come and visit over the holidays, and I popped in a couple of Blu-ray movies just for fun. Now my sister and brother-in-law just bought a PS3 and a Flat-panel.

My parents are already revamping their TV room to turn it into a home theater. I'm planning on giving them a Blu-ray player for their anniversary, to go with their new HD set-up.

That's two households converted to Blu for the cost of just 1 movie night.

As more people become exposed to Blu-ray, DVD and "other" media will shrink and fade. People want the best. They just have to experience it to know it is worth it.

[Maxell]

It wont happen until blu-ray players get around $100 MSRP, preferably lower. That will take years, but by then many more millions will have hdtv. But it also wont be as fast as the vhs-->DVD transition. DVD will last a long time, it's a cheaper and "good enough" medium.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Maxell

It wont happen until blu-ray players get around $100 MSRP, preferably lower. That will take years, but by then many more millions will have hdtv. But it also wont be as fast as the vhs-->DVD transition. DVD will last a long time, it's a cheaper and "good enough" medium.

You say this in spite of the fact that Blu-Ray is selling faster than DVD did...

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You say this in spite of the fact that Blu-Ray is selling faster than DVD did...

DVD launched in 1997 in the U.S, and 23 million discs were sold in 1998 (http://www.usatoday.com/life/2002-10...timeline_x.htm)

Were not at that pace yet.

There will also have to be 98 million discs shipped this year to match DVD pace.

[Rup_Muk]

Interesting thread and some very well thought out comments - not only by stockstar but Fozzi - and most others. While there is a whole lot of speculation, some interesting concepts have come to the fore. IMO, HD adoption - both TV and optical media - will have a feed forward effect. I base my speculation on a number of factors, including broadcast going HD (Feb '09), people watching blu-ray movies at others' houses (keeping up with the Joneses), and just the overall desire to leave old technology behind.

That being said, there are a couple of hurdles that could hamper overall adoption of HD. First and foremost is the economy. If we slip into an economic slow period (as may already be happening), people - including me - will tighten their financial belts and stick to what they already have. Second, price of players. Remember, DVD did not really catch on until player prices dropped to sub-100$ levels. Accounting for inflation and increased purchasing power, I estimate that the comfort price point for blu-ray will be $150. Finally, SD-DVD availability will play a big role... There are a couple of options here - if studios release on blu one to two weeks prior to the SD release of the same movie, adoption will increase in leaps and bounds. Second, Warner has already commented that they are seeing a drop in SD-DVD purchases. Therefore, to optimize recoupment - without the fear of wholesale piracy (at least for now) - Warner and other studios may turn more and more to blu-ray exclusive releases - and not release certain titles at all on SD-DVD. I realize that this is being overly optimistic, but one can hope...

My $0.02.

Rup.

[reider]

Originally Posted by blu2

DVD launched in 1997 in the U.S, and 23 million discs were sold in 1998 (http://www.usatoday.com/life/2002-10...timeline_x.htm)

Were not at that pace yet.

There will also have to be 98 million discs shipped this year to match DVD pace.

According to this time line, the attach rate was 16.4 disks per player...

The adoption curve for Blu-Ray will likely be very different from DVD's adoption curve due to many factors I'm too lazy to list. I'd say it will be slower for the first 15-20%, but much faster for the next 35-30%.

I know two "bums" that skipped DVD altogether; they "rediscovered the home video" and went last year from VHS straight to HI-Def and Blu-Ray. But these of course are irregular nut cases.