Wiping out portable DVD players is going to be the big nut to crack - so I think the next key is either:
a - Create BD players at a price that closely rivals DVD players (very likely far off, I know) or
b - Completely embrace digital copy, use it with every BD (for all studios), and build portable DVD/downloadable players.
As important as it is to have BD players be able to play DVDs - the next step is getting all DVD players to be able to play your BDs.
Portables are going to be the huge hurdle that keeps DVD alive. Using them to entertain kids in cars continues to become more and more prevelant - and average consumers aren't going to pay through the nose to replace their portable DVD player with a portable BD player - the value just isn't there. So you have a whole suburban family demographic that is going to be forced to either a: buy a BD and not be able to use it in the car, b: buy the dvd and BD version, or c: just buy the DVD version. Which you you think the average consumer is going to pick?
Digital Copy might be a savior here, as you could start introducing portable players that could do the digital copy as well as DVDs. Not only would that encourage consumers to just buy BD, but not having to change discs on the go could be seen as a desirable upgrade.
The more that I think about it, downloadable's greatest threat to BD could be from the portable player angle. Many parents with young children might be willing to sacrifice the visual/audio bonuses of HD media if they can do a digital download that makes it easy to shuffle through movies for the kids in the car. (not saying it will kill BD, but it could retard addoption)
Edit - I guess a BD/DVD combo disk could work too, but I'm not even sure that's possible - and it's definitely not the way you would want to go if you could avoid it.
There are several key things in my opinion (some of these are specific to the UK and Ireland):
1) Pricing. It's been said many times, but high price is what currently stands between a niche enthusiast's market and the mass market. This applies to both players and software.
2) Kick retailers up the arse. HMV, one of the UK's biggest music/movie/games retailers carries Blu-Ray discs in high street stores at ridiculously high prices, often way above MSRP. Some titles are as much as £30, the equivalent of $60. In almost all cases, the hight street prices are 50% to 100% higher than HMV's website. The average consumer is not going to adopt at those prices. HMV (and other retail chains) are presumably keeping prices high to make the most of what they see as a niche consumer, but that needs to change. The distributors need to provide incentive for high street retailers to drop those prices.
3) Kick rental stores up the arse. Xtra-Vision, the Irish rental chain owned by Blockbuster, has always been Blu-Ray exclusive. That's all well and good, but the Blu-Ray section in my local store rarely changes, and they often don't carry Blu-Ray titles that are released day-and-date with SD versions until weeks later. The distributors need to press rental stores to keep a better stock.
4) Release big titles on BD two weeks before SD. When this summer's blockbusters, like The Dark Knight and Iron Man, are rolled out for the Christmas rush, put them out on BD early. Many people will invest in a reasonably priced player to take advantage, and it won't harm the distributors' profits. I remember the early days of DVD and having to wait weeks after the VHS release to get the DVD version of Memento. They shouldn't repeat that mistake.
5) This one is crucial, I think: The Killer App. Some sort of title, or rather series, gets a a brand-spanky new remaster with a ton of extras, in some sort of super-duper ultimate edition that's only available on Blu-Ray. The DVD equivalent was when the Godfather boxset was released early in its emergence. There are plenty to choose from, but I guess the two most would argue for are The Lord of the Rings trilogy, and Star Wars. Lucasfilm might be more inclined to wait for mass-adoption like they did with the DVD set (picture a set with all six episodes, along with properly remastered versions of the original IV, V and VI). I think the likelier contender would be LOTR. Given the existence of the extended cuts which they could exploit with the threading technology (you could branch in and out of extra scenes), and the outstanding photography to make the most of 1080p, this release might be enough to push a large rise in BD player sales.
Who would have thunk that HD DVD would self-implode and the war would end the way it has. In under 45 days, HD DVD has become a curious foot note in the history of home entertainment.
BD is the logical progression of optical media and there is nothing BDA needs to do to supplant DVD right now. It took 7 years for VHS to be replaced by DVD and because of the big shift between analog and digital TV, plus the fact that BD is fully backwards compatible with DVD, I would expect a natural transition from DVD to BD in as few as 4 years as the cost of BD machines and discs come near or match those of DVD machines and discs.
Because not everything can be done in HD, there will be a place for DVD for many years to come, so while DVD machines will be antiques, DVD media will probably linger on for a longer period of time.
Ramp up production lines to support growing customer base. Advertise with confidence. Get retail side behind you.
Pretty much what's already happening.
I doubt we'll see title drops exclusive for BD for a while to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some studios decide they're better off not doing a 'Collector's Edition/Special Edition' DVD and just use the BD release as that form [the price difference is alot more 'managable' when you compare against the SpecEd DVDs in my experience ].
Wiping out portable DVD players is going to be the big nut to crack - so I think the next key is....
I would think this would be a tough nut to crack. Wouldn't that mean that you'd need portable 1080p televisions / LCD screens?
What would it take to miniaturize an HDTV down to, say, 6 or 8 inches? Because a portable Blu-Ray player wouldn't make much sense if all of the HDTVs are 42" +, would it?
edit: I know that there are some HDTVs at 20 or so inches, but they may be 720P. IDK for sure.
Lower prices. Flood market with BD ads.
Floor displays to compare SD and HD.
Start limiting DVD releases on certain titles.
Build HDTVs with built-in BD players.
Bundle DVDs and BDs?
Add digital download features ONLY on BD titles and not on DVD titles?
(not sure about last two, probably too aggressive and would backfire)
I would think this would be a tough nut to crack. Wouldn't that mean that you'd need portable 1080p televisions / LCD screens?
What would it take to miniaturize an HDTV down to, say, 6 or 8 inches? Because a portable Blu-Ray player wouldn't make much sense if all of the HDTVs are 42" +, would it?
edit: I know that there are some HDTVs at 20 or so inches, but they may be 720P. IDK for sure.
That's part of my point - you aren't going to buy a portable BD player for the incredible picture. You're mainly going to buy it so that you can take your BDs on the road.
It's going to be a very long time to completely convert consumers over because many will buy DVDs for portables and avoid upgrading even when available. Portable players are effectively a stable market for DVDs unless digital copy, downloads, or dual disks shake things up.
Lets say a new pixar movie hits Blu-ray and DVD, and we assume that there are equal numbers of BD and DVD consumers. I'd wager that portable players alone would substantially swing sales towards DVDs (so Mom and Dad can play it to kids in the car). That's a scary hurdle to jump.
first we need paramonts support mostly for transformers. then we need Toshiba blu ray players by holiday season and blu ray 360 add ons by the same time. bring out a portible blu ray player by may/june around $400-$300
just before summer vacation season. better advertising. players built into tv. $300 40gb ps3 and $200 players by end of year. then when they end analog signals in feb. 09 that will increase hdtv and hopefully blu ray sales. so hopefully by 2010 blu ray has taken over.
First idea, portable Blu Ray players in high-end vehicles. Your SUVs, minivans, luxary models, etc. BDA should deal to make sure they are coming stock like XM (inferior to Sirius) does.
Second idea, really push attachment to new HDTVs. People are scared of this upcoming analog-digital jump next year. In turn, people are buying a LOT more HDTVs. With the tax returns and that free money check coming in May(ish) this number will likely go up even further. Make sure that a Blu Ray player is in the basket with the same importance as HDMI cables.
But that's just my opinion, I could be wrong
It's long been held by studios, manufacturers and the media that the sub-$200 price range is the sweet spot to attract a larger influx of adopters. Particularly if that price point is available during peak HDTV buying periods like Super Bowl and Xmas, as consumers can easily be influenced at the retail level to "tack on" a $199 Blu-ray player with their new HDTV. Warner said as much in their exclusivity interview last month.
Free movie incentives don't hurt, either, but I personally feel more consumers would respond better to a movie or 2 free in the box, as opposed to a mail-in rebate.
Since HDM has seen a faster adoption rate than DVD did, it wouldn't surprise me if studios cease production on the DVD versions of catalog titles that they make available on Blu-ray.
Prediction: Blu tips the scales against DVD by Xmas 2010.
I have a thought. How about if we all cut the BS of having to have a battle with something at every turn. DUD was a ligitimate war. DVD? Give me a break! DVD will go away eventually like VHS did.
Try to think outside the war box and find more positive perspectives to thread on.
You can't win a tic-tac-toe game with just 1 good square. Likewise, several things need to happen for Blu-ray to enjoy mass adoption before downloadable movies: education, hardware pricing, software pricing, available titles, PQ/AQ, features, word of mouth and portability. I won't even rank them because they're ALL important and codependant on the others success.
EDUCATION: Average Joe and Grandma Josephine need to know they don't have to get rid of their DVD collection, and that a Blu-ray player can upscale their DVDs to look much better. They also need to know that while upscaled DVDs are supposed to be "near HD quality" it's still not really HD (720p) quality and certainly not full HD 1080p. Someone needs to explain and demonstrate to Grandma Josephine the difference between her old 480i DVD player and Blu-ray. Disney and Panasonic's Magical Blu-ray Tour has the right idea, but it's needed on a much larger scale. Also, BDA hardware and software companies need to make sure the boneheads at Circuit City and other retailers connect the HDTVs and Blu-ray players via HDMI instead of component cables!
HARDWARE PRICING: With many of us, once we got our first PS3 or Blu-ray player, almost all discs we purchased were BLU from that moment on, with the exception of a few TV series, but that's another topic altogether. The point is, once you go blu, you never go back. More players sold will result in exponentially more BDs sold. I don't know if I personally would buy a $99 Toshiba Blu-ray player, but I would welcome them to the market as well as any other 2nd tier CE manufacturer that can help lower hardware price.
SOFTWARE PRICING: Seeing a new release, multimillion dollar, blockbuster, special effects-laden action flick as part of an Amazon.com BOGO is a no brainer, but most of the time we're not quite that lucky. It may seem like second nature for us blu-ray.com posters to check Amazon's Blu-ray page at least once a day, but most people buy what looks good on the big-box retailer's shelf. Assuming the release dates and bonus features are the same, $15 looks better than $25, so it falls on the consumer to decide whether better PQ/AQ is worth $10 more.
AVAILABLE TITLES: It seems like all the major studios are falling into line now, but they have a LOT of work ahead to restore and release those highly anticipated catalog titles, you already know which ones. Next, they need to get to work with TV series, and oh yeah, it would help if every show was shot in at least 1080p like Lost, okay thanks.
PQ/AQ: Again, better picture and audio quality are what HDM is all about, so it absolutely, positively HAS to be good enough to justify the higher prices.
BONUS FEATURES: Although pop-up crap and web content couldn't save "that other format" it would be great if new releases have something extra like Lost's Access: Granted to tip the scales. It's even more important with catalog titles because why would you replace your super-special platinum extended director's cut 10th anniversary limited edition DVD with a BD that has anything less?
WORD OF MOUTH: This kinda goes along with consumer education, but takes it one step further. Tell your friends and family how happy you are with your Blu-ray, or better yet, host a movie night at your place. Sure beats a forum signature saying you have 137 BDs, a 52" 1080p LCD, PS3, 7.1 surround whatever. Movie nights are a lot more FUN than bragging on the internet.
PORTABILITY: Well, this one will probably take the longest. The technology is currently super expensive in new laptops and nonexistant in portable standalones with attatched screens. The screen itself would be the hardest decision between small, 480 and affordable OR bigger, 1080p and expensive, or somewhere in between. Whatever the CE manufacturers chose, a lot of people won't be satisfied, so they might make a variety of screen sizes and resolutions and it'll STILL take prices a while to come down.
Basically, the only things that we the consumers can do are: continue buying BLU, educate others(friends, family, forum readers, the guy in Best Buy looking at DVD upconverters), write or e-mail studios and CE companies, have a movie night, and most importantly, enjoy our Blu-rays.
Before we can get the average "Joe" to buy into Blu-Ray players, we need to get him hooked on High Def TV. With all the ads for Football (pro & college), and basketball being touted as being shown in HD (especially by ESPN), more and more folks are getting HDTVs. Especially after Feb 09, when the U.S. will be going digital (I know that digital does not mean HD, but it is a start). Look at the ads for Sears and Circuit City around Christmas and Father's Day. It is all about High Def TVs. Look at the ads by Dish and Direct TV, they are all hyping High Def channels.
Well, once an average "Joe" gets his HDTV, then we need to hit'tm with a 2 by 4 over the head and introduce him to the world of Blu-Ray.
And as several folks have mentioned, keep the costs down. $700 for a Blu-Ray player! Too much for "Joe". And the cost of the movies? $39 is nuts. Even $28 is way too high. Maybe around $23 or so (at $20 they would sell like hotcakes).
One of the MOST important things the BDA can do is to make ABSOLUTELY SURE THAT THERE ARE NO PROFILE 1.0 PLAYERS ON STORE SHELVES BY THE END OF THE SUMMER.
With HD out of the way, Blu Ray is going to be HUGE in the 08 Holiday shopping season and J6P will jump on board for the first time. There is no excuse for customers buying players 1 YEAR after the profile cut off date should even spot a profile 1.0 unit on the shelf. Don't confuse J6P with jargon like "Bonus View", just get it right.
I don't think they'd have to lower the hardware costs so much, if the media was equal in price to its predecessor.
~Camper
I totally agree with this. The Hardware is a one-time purchase and can be used to play the DVDs too so IMO isn't the biggest obstacle. People either need to figure out why they would pay more for a Blu-ray vs DVD, or Blu-rays need to be nearly identical in price.
Since teaching consumers why its better can be quite difficult, I think reducing disc cost is really important. Not par though. People still need to see the price difference to know one is better than the other.
I've also never thought about a slight delay for DVDs though. Imagine the impact of just a 1 or 2 day delay over Blu. It would get people's attention. That's for sure.
1) release more titles on a regular weekly basis (i.e. there needs to be more new releases)
2) make sure they have high quality releases (no use crapping the format to have many releases)
3) advertise more, make sure BD is on peoples tongs
4) this is not for the BDA, but come on guys we can now tell everyone BD is here, it is the only format, it is the successor of DVD and they might as well buy into it now with no worries.
dude there are people still buying vhs players for god sake! dvd's will be around for many more years just like vhs cassetts did when dvd's came out. i think the last vhs tape came out 2 or 3 years ago so dvd has atleast, so if you estimate that dvd's are 1995 and figure the last vhs was made 2005.....we have about 10 or 8 more years of dvd's. face it, alot of people do not want to upgrade. now are dvd's a threat to blu's.......hells no, i know for one i already stoped buying dvd's (well ok i buy the kids thier dvd only kids movies like handy manny and seasons of anime like dragonball.....which considering inside all the new seasons being released they say inside that they are re-mastered and touched up in 1080p....so why arent they on blu? and why am i still buying them on sdvd?)
dude if someone has a VHS tape they want to see they need a VHS player, if they have a DVD they want to see they don't need a DVD player, the BD player will do even better. If someone only had a VHS player then VHS's where the only things they could see, people sticking with VHS because they have family movies or stuff they taped (because until much more recently there was no other way to tape what played on TV) is what was keeping VHS alive. Also VHS came out in 1997 not 1995. So yes DVD will end up having a shorter life span then VHS.
DVD is not the enemy YET!! Chill out and enjoy the victory!! For the next year Blu ray will continue to be the STEP UP format. Both can exist for a little bit, and besides not all things will look good on blu.
I totally agree. How about everyone just mellow out and enjoy our blu.
There is no way that blu can take on standard def right now. This will be a long and slow process, so lets take our time and enjoy the ride, but I agree, chill out for a bit.
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High Def TVs are the Lure
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