Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[deto]

I prefer physical media, but have been buying a lot of digital lately. Sometimes i blind buy the digital code here for cheap and if i enjoy the movie, i usually buy the physical disc and sell the digital to recoup the price i initially paid for it. But with space getting more and more limited, digital is a great convenience, especially when the kids want to watch a movie and the wife loves that digital makes no clutter in the house.

[Zu Nim]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

What I meant was that the increase in ticket prices couldn’t compensate for the decrease in the number of tickets sold. That “trick” (raising ticket prices to compesate for decreasing unit sales) did not work in 2017.

But you said that in response to: 2016's box office grew by over 11% from 2015 but the trends stayed the same. Despite higher box office in 2016 (above and beyond the 2.61% average increased ticket price), all the trends for physical and digital stayed in place . That flies in the face of the idea that it's happening because of "the movies themselves". Excluding subscriptions, it's a nearly linear destruction of sales and rentals. People are buying fewer movies regardless of how good the movies are. (Assuming, of course, you consider box office receipts as a proxy for what's good or not.)

[jhrobinson]

Again, I think sales/rentals of physical media and transactional VOD are influenced by declines in movie attendance. For whatever reason, studios don’t seem to be making the kind of movies that people want to pay for, whether at the box office or at home.

http://flip.it/4Txspd

[Vilya]

Well, this people finds plenty to pay for and could not be happier for it.

[jhrobinson]

Based on the link that someone posted earlier, unit sales of tickets have decreased in 2017, 2016, and 2015. I believe that people in the US are less interested in movies, whether they are at the theater or at home. Why is it that increases in transactional VOD aren’t enough to offset decreases in physical media? Possibly because US customers aren’t as interested in recent films as they used to be. Meanwhile, subscription VOD, which offers unique content, is increasing in popularity.

Originally Posted by Zu Nim

But you said that in response to: 2016's box office grew by over 11% from 2015 but the trends stayed the same. Despite higher box office in 2016 (above and beyond the 2.61% average increased ticket price), all the trends for physical and digital stayed in place . That flies in the face of the idea that it's happening because of "the movies themselves". Excluding subscriptions, it's a nearly linear destruction of sales and rentals. People are buying fewer movies regardless of how good the movies are. (Assuming, of course, you consider box office receipts as a proxy for what's good or not.)

[Vilya]

This article says worldwide box office hit a record $39.92 Billion in 2017, up 3% compared to 2016 while domestic box office was down 2.3% to $11.12 Billion. It is dated December 31, 2017.

http://deadline.com/2017/12/worldwid...re-1202234008/

The U.S. is not the only barometer; it's a big world out there and we are just a small part of it.

[Zu Nim]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

Based on the link that someone posted earlier, unit sales of tickets have decreased in 2017, 2016, and 2015. I believe that people in the US are less interested in movies, whether they are at the theater or at home. Why is it that increases in transactional VOD aren’t enough to offset decreases in physical media? Possibly because US customers aren’t as interested in recent films as they used to be. Meanwhile, subscription VOD, which offers unique content, is increasing in popularity.

That was me.

2017: 1,232,793,954 (-4.93%)
2016: 1,296,674,369 (-1.96%)
2015: 1,322,551,950 (4.35%)
2014: 1,267,437,914 (-5.41%)
2013: 1,339,874,282 (-3.41%)
2012: 1,387,174,850 (7.96%)
2011: 1,284,939,087 (-4.26%)
2010: 1,342,154,237 (-5.39%)
2009: 1,418,604,447 (4.46%)
2008: 1,358,037,260 (-4.34%)
2007: 1,419,660,703 (1.18%)
2006: 1,403,129,850 (1.96%)
2005: 1,376,125,401 (-7.95%)
2004: 1,494,939,272 (-1.97%)
2003: 1,524,982,768 (-3.29%)
2002: 1,576,889,898 (7.57%)
2001: 1,465,961,374 (4.89%)
2000: 1,397,576,766 (-3.29%)
1999: 1,445,166,323 (0.15%)
1998: 1,442,986,620 (4.17%)
1997: 1,385,216,757 (5.74%)
1996: 1,310,013,419 (7.22%)

I understand your theory but as you can see, in 2015 and 2012 more people went to the movies and that didn't change the trends either. It's a good idea but it doesn't match the data.

[jhrobinson]

So, it content isn’t a reason for the decrease of physical media and the inadequate increase in TVOD, what are the reasons?

[Vilya]

^I blame feng shui.

Maybe domestic attendance is down because some people are working two or more jobs just to get by and do not have the free time or the disposable income to attend the theater as much as they would like, or to buy shiny discs, or digital ? It's kinda pricey taking a family of four out to the movies.

Maybe its something else entirely; all this data is becoming kind of a "can't see the forest for the trees" kind of thing as we wax poetic on what it all means.

[jhrobinson]

Actually, that’s a good point. Americans are working much harder to survive than they had to once upon a time. That might be a reason for a decrease in physical media sales, box office sales, and other decreases in some kinds of consumer spending.

I like to call that “the elephant in the room” that some folks don’t seem to want to talk about.

Originally Posted by Vilya

^I blame feng shui.

Maybe domestic attendance is down because some people are working two or more jobs just to get by and do not have the free time or the disposable income to attend the theater as much as they like, or to buy shiny discs, or digital ? It's kinda pricey taking a family of four out to the movies.

Maybe its something else entirely; all this data is becoming kind of a "can't see the forest for the trees" kind of thing as we wax poetic on what it all means.

[veritas]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

So, it content isn’t a reason for the decrease of physical media and the inadequate increase in TVOD, what are the reasons?

The decrease is mostly in dvd sales. I think it mostly comes from shifting marketing spending. They are selling digital copies 2 weeks to a month before the dvd/blu ray counter parts and they are primarily mentioning the digital release date in ads instead of physical media.

Physical medias decline is also somewhat of a self fulfilling prophecy. disc sales are down 10% so stores shrink their floor space for discs by 10 to 15% each year. Their are less discs for people to impulse buy so sales fall again. Its a pretty vicious cycle and eventually people stop looking in stores because the stores wont have what they want anyway.

Also its a similar thing to why dvd replaced vhs people are lazy. It went from Ug I have to rewind this thing to just getting up and putting it in and pushing play. With digital it went from having to get up to keeping your lazy ass on the couch and pushing a few buttons on a remote. I am sure at some point we will get to the jetsons level of lazy where pushing a button is a big deal eventually and then something else will replace digital because it will let people be even lazier and get rid of the strain of pushing a few buttons.

Then theirs the simple fact that dvds have been out for a long time. People that are going to buy physical media have bought a fair sized collection now and now they are more picky about what they buy. Before people were buying 100 years of media on dvd or blu ray but as time goes on they are going to be cherry picking mostly from just the last year or 2. The same exact slow down is going to hit digital media eventually when people collections are saturated (it might be worse given digitals fixed pricing).

I could go on and on but it basically works out to "No one in this world has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people"- Hennry Louis Mencken and the same applies for laziness.

[master gandhi]

Sweet. Love it when anti-digital folks call us lazy.

How much work are you doing when you go to a movie theater? Are you loading the film reel? Are you cueing up the movie? Pressing any buttons? You must be lazy if you just sit there at the movie theater...

[crow2k5]

Originally Posted by deto

I prefer physical media, but have been buying a lot of digital lately. Sometimes i blind buy the digital code here for cheap and if i enjoy the movie, i usually buy the physical disc and sell the digital to recoup the price i initially paid for it. But with space getting more and more limited, digital is a great convenience, especially when the kids want to watch a movie and the wife loves that digital makes no clutter in the house.

I total agree, only reason ive been buying digital is i'm running out of space, if get something on digital i end up loving, i'll buy the physical copy, like i recently done with Blade Runner 2049.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by master gandhi

How much work are you doing when you go to a movie theater?

Are you kidding? I have to put on pants, actually go to the theater, keep the pants on, find a seat, undo the pants, watch the movie, redo the pants, leave the theater, go all the way home and take the pants off.

It's a nightmare.

[veritas]

Originally Posted by octagon

Are you kidding? I have to put on pants, actually go to the theater, keep the pants on, find a seat, undo the pants, watch the movie, redo the pants, leave the theater, go all the way home and take the pants off.

It's a nightmare.

who goes to the theater. That's way to much work.

[Zu Nim]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

So, it content isn’t a reason for the decrease of physical media and the inadequate increase in TVOD, what are the reasons?

Subscription. That's where the money's gone. You can see it in the charts. People are no longer enchanted by owning content - if they ever were. There's a finite amount of time and money to spend on filmed entertainment. They don't want to own or rent relatively expensive new releases. They don't want to have their lives revolve around a TV schedule either. Subscription offers convenience and price in exchange for content selection and it's what people are choosing.

How many people own House of Cards vs. streamed it? There are digital and physical releases for most if not all seasons. It's well-reviewed, it's good content, and I doubt the sales amounted to much except in areas where people have poor internet.

Or take Game of Thrones. As best I can measure, Blu-rays sales have gone down for each season. The show is as popular as ever though, breaking records. Before maybe you didn't want to add HBO to your cable package and then watch it only when it aired. Today you can get HBO NOW and binge and rewatch all seven seasons whenever you like.

Despite Netflix not having all the latest movies, they still have enough to satisfy. I can't tell you the number of times I've purchased a movie but didn't have time to watch it, only to find that it's on Netflix.

There are fewer reasons for people to buy or rent when they can be satisfied with subscription. A similar thing has been happening with music, of course.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by octagon

Are you kidding? I have to put on pants, actually go to the theater, keep the pants on, find a seat, undo the pants, watch the movie, redo the pants, leave the theater, go all the way home and take the pants off.

It's a nightmare.

Well, if we are ever in the same theater at the same time, I'll be sure to sit as far away as possible. No offense.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by octagon

Are you kidding? I have to put on pants, actually go to the theater, keep the pants on, find a seat, undo the pants, watch the movie, redo the pants, leave the theater, go all the way home and take the pants off.

It's a nightmare.

Originally Posted by veritas

who goes to the theater. That's way to much work.

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

Well, if we are ever in the same theater at the same time, I'll be sure to sit as far away as possible. No offense.

I seem to go to the Theater once a year, to watch the latest Star Wars, and the Theaters are real nice now with their Lounge Chairs that lift your feet and everything. I see people taking their shoes off, but pants that's a bit too much. The Theaters are doing everything to get those seats filled, even giving you credit for a Movie Ticket when buying Digital.

[flyry]

Originally Posted by Vilya

From visiting the always informative "Home Video Sales Thread" on this site; it indicates that the real growth in digital lies with the "all you can eat" streaming services, not with those pretending that access to a digital copy constitutes ownership.

Electronic sell thru of digital grew 5.74% compared to 31.05% for subscription services. People want the buffet not the single entree.

"Consumers in 2017 spent an estimated $2.15 billion on the electronic purchase of movies and other filmed content, up nearly 6%"

"Spending on discs was down 14.1%, to an estimated $4.7 billion."

While spending on disc is undeniably down, those wanting to purchase a movie spent more than twice as much on discs than they did on digital copies.

"Subscription streaming is now about half of all "home entertainment" revenue, showing how ridiculous it's becoming to include that category in an age where the home video market is clearly in decline."

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...me+media+sales

Posts #744, 746

Discs will remain an option for those who want to really own a tangible hard copy of a film and not just access to a copy, provided they continue to pay their internet service's ever increasing fees, located on some remote server that they have zero control over.

Yawn.

Another poster using the internet to make a post acting like we will not always pay for internet until we die.

[WestMan]

Originally Posted by Zu Nim

Subscription. That's where the money's gone. You can see it in the charts. People are no longer enchanted by owning content - if they ever were. There's a finite amount of time and money to spend on filmed entertainment. They don't want to own or rent relatively expensive new releases. They don't want to have their lives revolve around a TV schedule either. Subscription offers convenience and price in exchange for content selection and it's what people are choosing.

How many people own House of Cards vs. streamed it? There are digital and physical releases for most if not all seasons. It's well-reviewed, it's good content, and I doubt the sales amounted to much except in areas where people have poor internet.

Or take Game of Thrones. As best I can measure, Blu-rays sales have gone down for each season. The show is as popular as ever though, breaking records. Before maybe you didn't want to add HBO to your cable package and then watch it only when it aired. Today you can get HBO NOW and binge and rewatch all seven seasons whenever you like.

Despite Netflix not having all the latest movies, they still have enough to satisfy. I can't tell you the number of times I've purchased a movie but didn't have time to watch it, only to find that it's on Netflix.

There are fewer reasons for people to buy or rent when they can be satisfied with subscription. A similar thing has been happening with music, of course.

Everything is in flux right now because of how the internet has disrupted every single industry. The movie industry held out the longest which is why they are much better off then the music industry. Streaming is currently showing amazing growth. At some point subscriber fatigue will happen. All of these services can't dominate the market at one...

Netflix, HBO, Amazon, Hulu, CBS All Access, Disney, WB, YouTube Red, Showtime, Starz are all going to be competing for "premium content". Combine that with all of the sports as well such as MLB, MLS, WWE, UFC, NFL, ESPN, NBA League Pass, and more. And we have the replacement cable packages such as PS Vue, Hulu TV, YouTube TV, DirecTV Now, and Sling TV. The market cannot sustain this many services.

Here is my prediction....

1. Streaming hits a plateau in the next 10 years. This includes most of the fringe services going away and a few of the big name ones too.

2. Streaming services are going to take away from both digital and physical media sales. However, digital media sales are going to take a bigger hit. For a consumer, the difference between digital ownership and digital streaming is small. Holding a physical copy feels much different then streaming.

3. Physical media sales will end up going down to about $3 Billion annually and then make a slight uptick once the market auto corrects itself. We have seen the same thing for physical for digital books with physical starting back on a slight increase.

4. Physical media sales will be mostly big named titles. The days of smaller independent titles being released might become a thing of the past.

I really don't see a time even in the next 30 years where physical media goes away. The next thing to go away is half of the useless streaming services. But streaming needs to grow more before it starts to condense.