Home Media Research weekly sales figures & other software sales data

[Blu Titan]

3.8 Million X 4 Quarters = 15.2 Million. However, the total amount of Blu-ray movies sold will be reater than 15.2 million because: 1. The installed base of Blu-ray players is expected to grow at a rapid pace due to the introduction of new players, the continual sales emergence of the PS3, and a reduction in Blu-ray player prices. 2. The BIG Summer blockbusters will be released in Q4, in which Blu-ray movie sales will easily surpass Q1 sales.

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

3.8 Million X 4 Quarters = 15.2 Million. However, the total amount of Blu-ray movies sold will be reater than 15.2 million because: 1. The installed base of Blu-ray players is expected to grow at a rapid pace due to the introduction of new players, the continual sales emergence of the PS3, and a reduction in Blu-ray player prices. 2. The BIG Summer blockbusters will be released in Q4, in which Blu-ray movie sales will easily surpass Q1 sales.

Iron Man, The Dark Knight, and assuming it does debut on BD, Indy 4 should be massive sellers and help attract new owners.

[Grubert]

Approximate quarterly sales (in thousand units):

Q/Y   2006   2007   2008
Q107   n/a    832   3800
Q207   n/a    768
Q307    48   1000
Q408   324   3100

[MarekM]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Approximate quarterly sales (in thousand units):

Q/Y   2006   2007   2008
Q1     n/a    832   3800
Q2     n/a    768
Q3      48   1000
Q4     324   3100

I hope we are looking for something like 23-28 mil units for 2008, if Q4=Q1+Q2+Q3

Q1 - 3800
Q2 - 4500
Q3 - 5500
Q4 - 13800
=========
27600

or am I too optimistic.... but I know I am optimistic with Blu

Marek

[Dave J]

Originally Posted by MarekM

I hope we are looking for something like 23-28 mil units for 2008, if Q4=Q1+Q2+Q3

Q1 - 3800
Q2 - 4500
Q3 - 5500
Q4 - 13800
=========
27600

or am I too optimistic.... but I know I am optimistic with Blu

Marek

I think once Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks get into the blu-ray business we may potentially see some big numbers in Q3 and Q4. Titles like Hellboy II, Indiana Jones 4, Iron Man, Speed Racer, Wall-E, Chronicles of Narnia, The Dark Knight, The Incredible Hulk and The Mummy 3 all have the potential to sell 500,000+ once they're released during Q4. They are also prime titles to fuel blu-ray adoption during Q3 and Q4. Time will tell of course.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by MarekM

I hope we are looking for something like 23-28 mil units for 2008, if Q4=Q1+Q2+Q3

Q1 - 3800
Q2 - 4500
Q3 - 5500
Q4 - 13800
=========
27600

or am I too optimistic.... but I know I am optimistic with Blu

Marek

You are a little too optimistic Usually Q2 is weaker than Q1 for DVD sales. Also, last year BD sales dropped in Q2 (though Fox's disappearing act might have had something to do). Consequently, 20-22 million units by the end of the year would be more realistic.

Then again it is the first full quarter after the end of the war and hardware sales are reportedly very good (players on backorder everywhere), so I might be wrong.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Grubert

You are a little too optimistic Usually Q2 is weaker than Q1 for DVD sales. Also, last year BD sales dropped in Q2 (though Fox's disappearing act might have had something to do). Consequently, 20-22 million units by the end of the year would be more realistic.

Then again it is the first full quarter after the end of the war and hardware sales are reportedly very good (players on backorder everywhere), so I might be wrong.

I have been estimating 20 million, if sales surpass that mark, I will be very

[MarekM]

Originally Posted by Grubert

You are a little too optimistic Usually Q2 is weaker than Q1 for DVD sales. Also, last year BD sales dropped in Q2 (though Fox's disappearing act might have had something to do). Consequently, 20-22 million units by the end of the year would be more realistic.

Then again it is the first full quarter after the end of the war and hardware sales are reportedly very good (players on backorder everywhere), so I might be wrong.

ok update I think, NARNIA, BB, National Treasure 1,2 will help to get Q2 up

Q1 - 3800
Q2 - 4000
Q3 - 5000
Q4 - 12800
=========
25600



Marek

P.S. Grubert maybe you can make a pool about final units number at the end of the year so we can see who was more close , if not I can try to make one, just not enough time this week...

[MarekM]

page 7 in new HMM magazine
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...hp?startpage=8

prediction for ENTERTAINMENT SPENDING hmm
they are even more optimistic than my prediction

Total BD Units sold to Consumers for year 2008 : 33.7 mil

Marek

[Grubert]

Weekly BD sales figures:

Week ended April 20: 269,690
Week ended April 27: 250,190

[Dave J]

Grubert, you may find this link of interest:

• There are more than 6 million Blu-ray players in the North American market alone (PS3 and stand-alone) – that’s up 50% from the 4 million just four months ago in December.

• More than 4.7 million copies of Blu-ray movies were sold in the first four months of the year in North America alone, a nearly 400% increase over 2007 and nearly half of the 10.8 million sold since inception, according to Home Media Research compiled by the Redhill Group.

• Blu-ray is growing from 2% of the total DVD business in 2007 to a projected 8% this year, with the percentage of Blu-ray vs DVD sales increasing even further on most new titles.

[Grubert]

Thanks, Dave. That means April sales were about 900,000.

Here are more figures from the Redhill Group, published on dvdtown:

Week ending April 20, 2008

Rank Title                           Units
1. * Alien vs. Predator: Requiem    35,100
2. * Juno                           28,700
3.   I Am Legend                    12,600
4. * Predator                        8,100
5.   Alien vs. Predator--2 Pack      7,100
6.   No Country for Old Men          6,000
7.   Over America                    5,300
8. * Before the Devil Knows...       4,500
9.   300                             4,200
10.  Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story  3,800

Week ending April 27, 2008

Rank Title                           Units
1.   Alien vs. Predator: Requiem     8,900 
2.   Juno                            8,300
3.   I Am Legend                     7,700
4.   300                             7,600
5.   Blade Runner                    7,100
5.   Independence Day                7,100
7.   Troy: Director's Cut            6,400
8. * The Orphanage                   5,700
9.   Predator                        5,400
10.  Pan's Labyrinth                 4,800

[Grubert]

Post 2 now includes a table summarising the BD vs DVD sales information.

So far it looks like this:

Week    BD$    DVD$      $%       Top20%
04/27  9.20   106.76   7.9:92.1    6:94
05/04  7.08   101.25   6.5:93.5    5:95

BD$: million dollars spent by consumers on BD during the week
DVD$: million dollars spent by consumers on DVD during the week
$%: expenditure on BD vs expenditure on DVD
Top20%: Top 20 BD unit volume vs Top 20 DVD unit volume

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Post 2 now includes a table summarising the BD vs DVD sales information.

So far it looks like this:

Week    BD$    DVD$      $%       Top20%
04/27  9.20   106.76   7.9:92.1    6:94
05/04  7.08   101.25   6.5:93.5    5:95

BD$: million dollars spent by consumers on BD during the week
DVD$: million dollars spent by consumers on DVD during the week
$%: expenditure on BD vs expenditure on DVD
Top20%: Top 20 BD unit volume vs Top 20 DVD unit volume

That's cool.

What be interesting would be to find out what the numbers were like for DVD v. VHS at the same point after launch.

The success bar seems to be set by some at total takeover, rather than impressive for this point.

Gary

[Grubert]

Some European sales information from GfK via DEG:

The growth curve for standard DVD is falling off with a marginal increase in volume sales of just 4.2%, and the British are leading the HD revolution with 34% of total next generation DVD sales.

In 2007, over 2.5 million units of high definition DVDs were sold within Europe. To put this in context, when compared to the transfer from VHS to DVD in 1998, only 1.48 million DVDs were sold in the first year.

Hardware sales of hi-def DVD players rose from 11,100 units in January 2007 to 124,000 by the end of the year, with 30% of total sales taking place in December 2007. However, SD players are still the most popular choice in the market with over 33 million more units being sold in the UK compared to sales of next generation players.

[Xcom_Cheetah]

Can we have LTD (Life To Date) sales of blu-ray movies... just wanted to see which is at the top..? i mean from the likes of POTC3 and Casino Royale and SpiderMan 3, has any managed to reach 500k sales or which is most near to it..

[MarekM]

Originally Posted by Xcom_Cheetah

Can we have LTD (Life To Date) sales of blu-ray movies... just wanted to see which is at the top..? i mean from the likes of POTC3 and Casino Royale and SpiderMan 3, has any managed to reach 500k sales or which is most near to it..

LTD sale are very hard to get, I think we don't have any new numbers from the end of 2007

Marek

[Grubert]

Some figures from Germany (source: Federal Association of Audiovisual Media):

Q1 2008 sales were around €10 million. In comparison, sales during the whole of 2007 only netted €13.6 million.

Total movie disc sales in Q1 08 were €379 million.

http://www.cinefacts.de/news/news.php?newsid=11975

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Some figures from Germany (source: Federal Association of Audiovisual Media):

Q1 2008 sales were around €10 million. In comparison, sales during the whole of 2007 only netted €13.6 million.

Total movie disc sales in Q1 08 were €379 million.

http://www.cinefacts.de/news/news.php?newsid=11975

The growth in the German market is obvious. Initially I though that germany had sold 10 million BD movies in Q1

[Blu Titan]

BD 5% - DVD 95%. Blu-ray sales were up 21.71% from the prior week. Check out the Paramount Blu-ray ad!

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...P/index.php#/2