Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Thanks Vilya, I never thought I would hear this from you. You are truely a Gentleman and a Scholar. Like Groot said, "That wasn't the hill to die on."

There is no need to thank me; you were owed an apology. Thank you for accepting my apology with such magnanimity. It is a great testimony to your character.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

It is interesting that none have asked what I do .

Actually, you were asked exactly that as recently as July 17th. You told us to just click on the red text in your signature line. You had an interesting career and you have considerable expertise.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...ostcount=10070

[Wendell R. Breland]

Look folks, I get it, many people lie and justify it in many ways. There is lots of studies on the subject so no need for references. IIRC, Nova did a 2 hour show on this subject sometime back.

I just made reference to lying as it pertains to this thread subject matter. I did it just to see what shakes out. When you rattle peoples cage sometimes their true colors emerge. And some of you appear to be quite colorful .

Seriousness: Apple, Amazon, Google, etc. stock prices, maybe a new laser - phosphor 4K projector, keep Sony UBP-X800 or trade for Sony UBP-X1000ES, new functions for my Oppo UDP-203. Some of this I take pretty serious .

[Groot]

Well when you can explain how I have Infinity War in my Vudu without paying full price for it I'll be happy to hear about this secret well of cheap digital codes I can black market earlier than the disc release date.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Actually, you were asked exactly that as recently as July 17th.

Ah, should have been more clear. That was in reference to lying.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Ah, should have been more clear. That was in reference to lying.

I understand, but I did not want you to think that no one was interested in your work history.

And I like onions, too. Auto correct will get you every chance it can.

[Show spoiler]re: #10434

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

And I like onions, too. Auto correct will get you every chance it can.

Thanks for that . I never learned to touch type and I'm not that good with the Queen's language (grammar and spelling), but man you ought to see some of my PWA's (printed wiring assemblies) .

[ZoetMB]

Originally Posted by MrVorhees

How is our beloved format doing? Are the sales decreasing? Is streaming taking over?
At least that's what reddit and other sites are claiming. "Blu-ray is dying","streaming is the future" etc.
Sony didn't put an UHD drive into the PS4 Pro because more people tend to stream? Any truth here?

I personally use some streaming services, mostly for series BUT i would never give up on physical media. I want to own the movie in the best quality possible as a physical edition. I still buy Blu-rays and plan on doing so. I'd rather pirate before going all streaming only. Not only doesn't streaming services have all the movies i like, they are also available for a limited time only. No extras, neat packaging/special editions etc. I just can't see how physical media will leave for good. So, how are the numbers? Are we safe?
How about you? Thank you for reading.

It depends upon how you define "dying". If you define it as "can't buy a disc anymore", that's probably many years away, if ever. But if you define it as "revenue is in major decline', then yes, it's "ill".

Physical video media was an $11 billion business in the U.S. in 2009. It was $4.7 billion in 2017. Blu-ray revenue peaked at $2.3 billion in 2013. It was $1.89 billion in 2017. Right now it's on track to do about $1.78b this year.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by ZoetMB

It depends upon how you define "dying". If you define it as "can't buy a disc anymore", that's probably many years away, if ever. But if you define it as "revenue is in major decline', then yes, it's "ill".

Physical video media was an $11 billion business in the U.S. in 2009. It was $4.7 billion in 2017. Blu-ray revenue peaked at $2.3 billion in 2013. It was $1.89 billion in 2017. Right now it's on track to do about $1.78b this year.

That’s just guess work, no one knows what it will finish the year on.

[handcraftedbits]

Hi, jumping in here with my first post to hopefully get the discussion back on track.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

That’s just guess work, no one knows what it will finish the year on.

Eh, the trend is clear. Physical sales are indeed on the decline. The dollar amount sold this year is almost certainly going to be less than last year.

My take on it is that the dynamic between physical and streaming is going to mirror the dynamic as it was during Netflix's rise. Several years ago, physical sales were king and studios saw streaming as a way to extract extra cash from catalog titles that otherwise weren't doing much of anything. Going forward, I think streaming will be king and studios will license catalog titles out to boutiques to extract extra cash.

Personally I think the best years for collecting movies on physical media are still ahead of us. Sure, you may not be able to pick up new releases at Best Buy some day in the future, but small labels will be cranking out remastered CEs of movies that in years past studios would keep to themselves.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by handcraftedbits

Hi, jumping in here with my first post to hopefully get the discussion back on track.



Eh, the trend is clear. Physical sales are indeed on the decline. The dollar amount sold this year is almost certainly going to be less than last year.

My take on it is that the dynamic between physical and streaming is going to mirror the dynamic as it was during Netflix's rise. Several years ago, physical sales were king and studios saw streaming as a way to extract extra cash from catalog titles that otherwise weren't doing much of anything. Going forward, I think streaming will be king and studios will license catalog titles out to boutiques to extract extra cash.

Personally I think the best years for collecting movies on physical media are still ahead of us. Sure, you may not be able to pick up new releases at Best Buy some day in the future, but small labels will be cranking out remastered CEs of movies that in years past studios would keep to themselves.

I’m not stupid, I know how things are panning out. Plus DVD has been in decline since 2008. All I’m saying is, estimates are estimates. Anyone can do that. As someone else said a few pages back, we need to start dealing in Facts. Discs though, are going to be fine.

Your scenario wouldn’t work for disc sales. Collectors would still require new releases otherwise the whole point of collecting films is irrelevant.
I disagree, I think new releases (especially blockbusters) will absolutely remain vital to the format.

By the way, when you say streaming, I only agree if you mean subscription. Digital HD is not growing much. Only single digits last year. It’s simply not showing the necessary growth having been on the market for several years now. The mainstream don’t want to own films anymore.

[handcraftedbits]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Your scenario wouldn’t work for disc sales. Collectors would still require new releases otherwise the whole point of collecting films is irrelevant.
I disagree, I think new releases (especially blockbusters) will absolutely remain vital to the format.

New release blockbusters are only necessary to keep the format viable for brick and mortar sales to Joe Public. In this scenario I think the physical medium will be fully relegated to niche status. Boutique labels are already operating under the assumption that they'll never get new releases and thriving. I think the profile of the typical "collector" is someone who is mostly buying catalog titles, so losing out on new releases won't kill discs, it'll just mean that buying them in stores will likely become a thing of the past or much more difficult.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

By the way, when you say streaming, I only agree if you mean subscription. Digital HD is not growing much. Only single digits last year. It’s simply not showing the necessary growth having been on the market for several years now. The mainstream don’t want to own films anymore.

Yes, I'm referring to subscription services, which I gather is where all the money is anyway.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by handcraftedbits

New release blockbusters are only necessary to keep the format viable for brick and mortar sales to Joe Public. In this scenario I think the physical medium will be fully relegated to niche status. Boutique labels are already operating under the assumption that they'll never get new releases and thriving. I think the profile of the typical "collector" is someone who is mostly buying catalog titles, so losing out on new releases won't kill discs, it'll just mean that buying them in stores will likely become a thing of the past or much more difficult.



Yes, I'm referring to subscription services, which I gather is where all the money is anyway.

I think your assumption is wrong. I would drop disc tomorrow if it was declared we wouldn’t be getting new releases. I have been collecting films for decades. It’s aboit the quality of the image to a lot of enthusiasts.
I don't why you are so stuck on stores? I haven’t set foot in a store for years but I buy 50 discs per year plus tv series. Everything is moving online, even disc purchases of brand new films.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I haven’t set foot in a store for years but I buy 50 discs per year plus tv series. Everything is moving online, even disc purchases of brand new films.

I agree. In the US it is very apparent that Walmart, Target, Best Buy and others is putting major emphasis on on-line shopping.

Been buying media via mail order/on-line since 1985. For a while now been buying food and dry good items on-line from Walmart and Target, delivered to the front door .

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

I agree. In the US it is very apparent that Walmart, Target, Best Buy and others is putting major emphasis on on-line shopping.

Been buying media via mail order/on-line since 1985. For a while now been buying food and dry good items on-line from Walmart and Target, delivered to the front door .

I don't subscribe to this catalogue only theory. Blu-ray and 4K Blu-ray MUST have new releases (and will have)

Also, I think Walmart and Best Buy will announce their own streaming service before 2020.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I don't subscribe to this catalogue only theory. Blu-ray and 4K Blu-ray MUST have new releases (and will have)

In the US all one need do is look here and here, The Digital Bits publishes lots of release info as well.

Also, I think Walmart and Best Buy will announce their own streaming service before 2020.

Walmart is a definite maybe, Best Buy has been there and done that, will they repeat remains a ??

[Vilya]

I purchase, on average, 20+ titles on disc each and every month. I buy catalog titles and I buy new releases both. Am I a typical collector? Maybe so and maybe no, but I never aimed to be typical.

I buy the vast majority of them online and I have been doing so for many years. The selection online is unrivaled, the prices are as good or better than in stores, it is convenient and time efficient to shop from home, and I like having my purchases delivered to my home.

For the most part, I do not care what brick and mortar stores choose to carry inside their stores. As for Best Buy, I seldom step foot in one and when I have it was almost always just to browse the movie displays.

I am not in the market for hardware very often. Several years pass before I replace a TV, for example. If Best Buy stores just want to focus on hardware and the accessories for them, then they will see even less of me.

It is those small ticket items, such as music and movies, that got me inside of their stores at all. If they choose to drop such items, then they might lose some foot traffic as a result. For some people, movies are an impulse item and impulse sales are a significant source of revenue. I do not impulse buy a new AVR or TV, but I will impulse buy a movie and while I am there I might take notice of those newer devices.

Predicting the future is a fun pastime; if we were any good at it we would all be wildly rich. I should have bought 100 shares of Walmart stock at their initial public offering in 1970 at $16.50 per share. In 2015, that stock purchase was worth $12 million. The dividend alone in 2015 was $400,000.

Subscription streaming is not a purchase model- it is a recurring service that is essentially just a rental; it's strong growth likely impacts cable TV subscriptions more than it does movie purchases.

Actual purchases, disc or digital, are an entirely different creature. Disc sales are in decline, digital has single digit growth, and neither are exactly a bull market. But they do not have to be, either. There remains enough of a demand for both purchase options for them to continue being offered.

Disc sales in 2017 comprised 23.1% of all home entertainment spending; that is still a large amount of the industry's revenue stream and that includes subscription streaming which is not even a purchase method in the first place. Comparing subscription streaming revenue to purchases of any kind makes no more sense to do than does comparing cable TV service with purchases- they are very different things.

As the saying goes, even a stopped clock is right twice a day. When, and if, the predictions about the disappearance of compact discs actually happens, I will take some notice. People have been predicting this for over a decade and it still has not happened. If they keep predicting it for long enough maybe it will, but the longer it takes for these predictions to come true, the less credible they and their predictions become.

There is enough demand for physical media to exist in this market. I will stick my neck out and predict that that will continue to be the reality. If I am wrong, then at some point I will save about $500 per month on my disc purchases- I sure won't be buying digital.

[Groot]

I'm still waiting to hear where I can buy brand new digital releases that come out before the disc drops cheaper. Deadpool 2 is out next week and this secret place to not pay full price is of interest.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Groot

I'm still waiting to hear where I can buy brand new digital releases that come out before the disc drops cheaper. Deadpool 2 is out next week and this secret place to not pay full price is of interest.

I am so behind in my Marvel Comics movies; I have not even watched the first one yet despite having bought it on release day.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I am so behind in my Marvel Comics movies; I have not even watched the first one yet despite having bought it on release day.

I bought IW off Vudu yesterday, watched it three times so far. May go for a fourth after I finish work and shower.

I got Deadpool 2 pre-ordered as it comes out a few weeks early too.

I'll end up buying the discs to match my sets, but I wanna watch 'em again as soon as I can.