81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Lee Christie]

IMHO if the rating were something like 105:-5 due to returns there would be no reported figures, simply a caption in place of the graph reading:

"There are no weekly ratings for this week as more HD DVDs were returned than purchased. P.S. Yes this means HDUD get it butt kicked, the was is soo definently over! The year-to-date figures were: ... and SI: ..., now go Blu! "

[reider]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

I posted an example earlier of a scenario that demonstrates how volume could have gone up in the most recent week. I'm not saying this did happen, only that the volume figures I put in for weeks 1 to 3 below deliver the YTD numbers that we have seen published in HMM. Remember that HMM do not round up the Blu-ray number, they simply chop off the decimal places and then round up the HD DVD number - even if it's 23.03!

YTD progression

Wk / Total HDM Vol / BD / HD DVD
Week 1 / 225000 / 65.00% / 35.00%
Week 2 / 185000 / 74.02% / 25.98%
Week 3 200000 / 76.97% / 23.03%

Week 2 vol. goes down. Week 3 vol. goes up.

Edit: BD vol goes up in week 2 and also in week 3 (forgot to add that).

HMM report YTD as:

Wk1: 65:35
Wk2: 74:26
Wk3: 76:24

If you want to post your "triple equation system with four variables" then I could see better what you think happened and why your volume dropped in week 3. I don't entirely buy the week release slate argument.

On the growth of the user base for Blu-ray, if the leaked NPD numbers are accurate then for January to date there will be approx. 60,000 additional Blu-ray standalones sold and 150,000 PS3's (with around 50,000 of those being bought by people interested in Blu-ray movie playback). I estimate that the active Blu-ray customer base stands at around 1.5 million and is currently growing by 30-40,000 per week.

I'm guessing that's one of your variables?

Sure, no problem. I'll post the equations...solve them and see for yourself.

Variables:
b1(blu sales qty for 1st week); b2(blu sales qty for 2nd week); r1(red sales qty for 1st week); r2(red sales qty for 2nd week)

System of equations:
35*b1=65*r1
15*b2=85*r2
(b1+b2)*26=(r1+r2)*74

Solving that system for ratios (b1/b2) and (r1/r2) will give you the percentile changes in sales from week 1 to week 2 for blu and red respectively.
Calculating percentile change from week 2 to week 3 is slightly more difficult - you are introducing b3 and r3, but since you already calculated the ratios b1/b2 and r1/r2 you can easily get rid of b1 and r1 by substitution leaving you again with four variables and three equations that you should solve for ratios (b2/b3) and (r2/r3).

As I posted earlier, this is what you should get:

Blu during week 2 sold 7% more then during week 1
Blu during week 3 sold 38% less then during week 2.

Let me know if you still can't solve it... I'll give you some more hints.

[Blu-Light]

Why are they even bothering to keep track...Since the WB announcment DUD as a REAL HD disc format is dead.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by Blu-Light

Why are they even bothering to keep track...Since the WB announcment DUD as a REAL HD disc format is dead.

Yes, but Blu-ray still has to grow its market considerably to establish itself as a mass market format.

That's why 'they' are bothering to keep track.

And it's nice to pinpoint the exact moment that HD DVD breathed its last breath.

And reider, thanks for the data, It's way too late for me to start on it now (in the UK) but I'll give it a go later.

[sj001]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

Yes, but Blu-ray still has to grow its market considerably to establish itself as a mass market format.

That's why 'they' are bothering to keep track.

And it's nice to pinpoint the exact moment that HD DVD breathed its last breath.

And reider, thanks for the data, It's way too late for me to start on it now (in the UK) but I'll give it a go later.

Once they are done tracking HD-DVD vs Blu-ray, then the Nielsen's can start tracking Blu-ray vs. DVD market share, that will be interesting to see.

[Lee Christie]

Originally Posted by sj001

Once they are done tracking HD-DVD vs Blu-ray, then the Nielsen's can start tracking Blu-ray vs. DVD market share, that will be interesting to see.

Which logically they won't bother tracking until after Blu:HDD = 100:0, which is why we're tracking the Blu:HDD share. I can't wait till we get that 100 and start tracking the Blu:DVD share but we're still 17% off.

It can't be longer than another 6 months till Blu:DVD begins.

[Anthony P]

not really, I think they will more or less wait until BD DVD becomes more interesting. What is BD at now 3%-5%, there is not much to show there. HD DVD was a bit more interesting because the titles where not the same (i.e. one week HD DVD can have a big title and they are closer the next week it is BD) but with DVD if a new big D&D comes out on BD it will be on both so the numbers should be more static but slowly moving towards each other.

[york weir]

Originally Posted by Lee Christie

Which logically they won't bother tracking until after Blu:HDD = 100:0, which is why we're tracking the Blu:HDD share. I can't wait till we get that 100 and start tracking the Blu:DVD share but we're still 17% off.

It can't be longer than another 6 months till Blu:DVD begins.

I agree. That comparison will be truly interesting to gauge if we are chipping away at DVD sales.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by Blu-Light

Why are they even bothering to keep track...Since the WB announcment DUD as a REAL HD disc format is dead.

As much as I don't like to hang around like vultures around a death watch, there's still a few hd dvd supporters who won't go gently into that night, as long as the corpse still twitches, there is still some value in understanding what the sales volumes are.

I suspect we won't have many more weeks before rigor sets in and we move along to seeing how well BD will do over the spring and summer months.

Apparently, everyone's looking at the retailers over the coming weeks to see if anything happens there.

As for Toshiba, the absolute acid test is how many A3s leave their factories on March-1st. My estimate of how this supply chain works is that Toshiba typically should at most 8 weeks of parts in their orders to make the A3, possibly earlier if they can cancel orders, later if their inventory built up and their weekly production slows down.

The person to check with here is the guy who knows how many NEC EMMA3 chip is sent to Toshiba. Some of the EMMA3 chip is destined for their HDD/HD DVD recorder in japan, but that volume is very small, so it will not dry up, but without A3s, the volume of emma3s shipped to toshiba, will slow to a trickle, which also should create another set of problems (depending on how that supply agreement is worded).

[KT26102]

so has the final nail been hammered in yet ... oh almost no doubt go go BLU

[duglambier]

A question is : Who will save the HD-DVD ?
A well informed person won't buy such player and the trend will continue this way (Blu-Ray well ahead in the HD Market Share)

The war is may be over, and such thread (Nielson) could be useless within few months.

I Would not have imagined HD-DVD could collapse with a simple announcement (Warner)

The next war is : Blu-Ray vs DVD.

[shug7272]

Originally Posted by unreal1080p

I don't know why people are still arguing this.... There is allready a SEPARATE THREAD for next weeks predictions:

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=33819

so OBVIOUSLY somebody agrees with me (also makes it a heck of a lot easier to tabulate contest results).
Give it a rest.

Not arguing just talking, like everyone else in this thread. It seems even with the guessing of the numbers out of here there is still plenty of chit chat that will make it hard for people to find the numbers. Doesnt bother me, Im no mod.

It always makes me smile to come in and read what people have to report from the red forums. I mean that is really all the entertainment we have left now that the war is over.... unless you think HD DVD still has ANY sort of chance, then I guess its not over. Me myself and I believe it was over around early Jan. Cant wait to see the numbers, wish they were still leaked by the "neutral" people that leaked them before HD DVD got kicked in the nuts.

[LynxFX]

Seriously, there are only 41 actual "Number posts" (doops need not apply) in a thread with 11,033 total posts. I think we are well beyond the "let's keep this about the numbers."

[Joon]

OK, Wednesday night star to turn my attention and get ready for a great Friday of NPD numbers. Can't wait to see what the numbers are this week.

[Blu Titan]

Ok. guys Saw IV was #1 for Blu-ray and The Game Plan #2. for HD DVD Bourne Ultimatum was #1. I predicted 80-20 Blu-ray in Winn's thread, but I was too low, More like 85-15

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...957c27c8c826c0

[MerrickG]

Originally Posted by BlueNeon

Ok. guys Saw IV was #1 for Blu-ray and The Game Plan #2. for HD DVD Bourne Ultimatum was #1. I predicted 80-20 Blu-ray in Winn's thread, but I was too low, More like 85-15

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...957c27c8c826c0

So is 85:15 the actual numbers?

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by merrick97

So is 85:15 the actual numbers?

No, or we don't know yet. Blue was just saying that is what he should have guessed instead of 80:20.

[dustin410]

Are the numbers going to be released on Friday?

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by dustin410

Are the numbers going to be released on Friday?

You bet they are!

And they will be the best yet IMO.

This week will be yet another demonstration for Toshiba of why their cheap player strategy failed. Remember HD DVD showed a stunning recovery ( ) in hardware sales the week before the set of Nielsens we are about to see.

Originally Posted by Grubert

With credit to The Digital Bits, here is a thread compiling the player sales information from NPD.

I'm skipping percentages completely in favour of actual figures.

Weekly sales

Week    Blu-ray     HD DVD
1/5      15,257     14,558
1/12     21,770      1,758
1/19     16,496      8,639

The next set of Nielsen data is for week ending 27th January

Does anyone seriously believe there will have been a boost for HD DVD software sales (they did manage to sell a massive 8,000 cheap players after all + whatever they sold up to 27th Jan.)? If you sell $100 HD DVD players you had better be selling $10 HD DVD movies to go with it. Or admit defeat and sell them as DVD upconverters.

Toshiba just never got that blindingly obvious piece of logic. Maybe they should stick to computers and nuclear power.

[L or S of Perfect?]

Originally Posted by BlueNeon

Ok. guys Saw IV was #1 for Blu-ray and The Game Plan #2. for HD DVD Bourne Ultimatum was #1. I predicted 80-20 Blu-ray in Winn's thread, but I was too low, More like 85-15

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...957c27c8c826c0

Cool thanks for the link.

How many weeks in a row was this for bourne ultimatum? Wow, the dud volume must be extremely low.