81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Kendall]

If anyone is worried about the superbowl commercial, it's good to remember that pets.com had a superbowl commercial - now the hand puppet is advertising shady loan services on late night TV.

All superbowl commercials do is consume money at a fantastic rate. If I were a Toshiba shareholder I'd be livid they are spending that much propping up the format another few weeks.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Grif32

You can with which TV? I was looking at the Toshiba Regza's and If I can get a free player then I will..

Hmm. Sears had free player deals with HDTVs, as did Best Buy and Circuit City, as well as Toshiba themselves.

All of these offers seem to have dried up and are no longer available, unless you happen to live in Australia. Sorry if I got your hopes up.

[atomik kinder]

You know there are a lot of people who watch the Superbowl just for the commercials. The ones that are remembered are the ones that are clever or very funny. Usually they will reshow the best ones on the news show. I can't forsee the Toshiba HD DVD commerical as being clever or funny. Well, I guess it could be kind of funny to some people, us in particular. Unless it is clever or funny, no one will care.

[Winn]

Originally Posted by Lee Christie

All power to the Hypno Toad.

[darinp2]

I posted the following on AVS, but thought some people here might find it interesting with respect to whether it is just the numbers for the new day-and-date releases that are making HD DVD lose big (looks to me like they would have lost big without even counting those, just not as big):

Originally Posted by Sketcha

Many seem to be missing the fact that a majority of the top 10 for blu-ray were NOT day & dates, nor new releases.

I figured it would be fun to try to take out last weeks 2 day-and-date releases and see how that might affect things. I'm doing some guessing here since we don't have the sales beyond the top titles, but I think it is still basically valid to see about how much not counting those 2 titles might affect things. I started with this data:

Originally Posted by dad1153

Top 10 by SKU:

1. Good Luck Chuck 100
2. 3:10 to Yuma 98.80
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 64.33
4. Plante Earth: The Complete Series BR 43.35
5. 300 BR 42.04
6. Ratatouille 41.60
7. Superbad 36.42
8. Resident Evil: Extinction 33.86
9. Blade Runner: Collector's Edition BR 33.84
10. Mr. Woodcock 33.48

xx. The Kingdom 24.95
xx. The Bourne Ultimatum 24.53
xx. Transformers 20.19
xx. Blade Runner: Collector's Edition HD 15.81
xx. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix HD 11.94
xx. 300 HD 7.10
xx. Planet Earth: The Complete Series HD N/A

Adding those up for each side I get 527.72 to 104.52 (or about 83.5:16.5). Just for the sake of discussion and since I need an estimate for the total, I'll say the rest of Blu-ray's titles added about 200 more points to their side. For Blu-ray to stay above 83.0 the HD DVD side then couldn't have added more than about 44. If Blu-ray had 300 points from the rest of their titles then HD DVD couldn't have gone over about 65 for the rest of their's, but I'll try the guess of 200.

Using 200 for the rest for Blu-ray, their total would be about 728. HD DVD's total could be up to about 149 then and still report 83:17.

Using those assumptions, taking off Good Luck Chuck and Mr. Woodcock would leave Blu-ray with about 595. With 149 for HD DVD, the ratio would have been about 79.9:20.1, which would get reported as 79:21.

If I also take off 3:10 to Yuma that would leave Blu-ray with about 496. Then the ratio would have been about 76.9:23.1, which would get reported as 76:23. Although I figured the most HD DVD could get previously (that the 83:17 was close to 83.0:17.0 and not toward 83.9:16.1), so even a small change there could push 76.9 to 77.0.

I don't have time to do it for the case where the rest of the HD DVD sales would have accounted for 300 points (where taking titles off the Blu-ray side would change the final ratio even less) or less than 200 for the rest of the titles, but it looks to me like even taking the sales for those 3 day-and-date titles off the Blu-ray side there is a good chance it would have left the ratio at higher than 3:1 for Blu-ray for the week.

I hope I didn't screw up any of the math, but maybe somebody could point it out if I did.

--Darin

[aristotles]

Originally Posted by badboi

These people must be from the same village of idiots. Scroll down to Super XP's posts.

http://www.highdefforum.com/showthread.php?t=63417

And aren't Amazon figures counted in the Neilsens?

Forget about those inbred hicks. It's not worth expending any energy over.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by Kendall

All superbowl commercials do is consume money at a fantastic rate. If I were a Toshiba shareholder I'd be livid they are spending that much propping up the format another few weeks.

I suspect they had to buy it a while ago, either before the Warner jump, or perhaps when they decided to slash prices in hopes that it would massively spur sales (which by all accounts it hasn't).

At this point, they're probably wishing for a refund. At best, this is probably going to be their last stand, and if it doesn't work a miracle then they're faced with continued clearance sales and little to no restocking of their product at retail outlets.

If their commercial really hypes the DVD upscaling powers, then we'll know it's already over.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Hmm. Sears had free player deals with HDTVs, as did Best Buy and Circuit City, as well as Toshiba themselves.

All of these offers seem to have dried up and are no longer available, unless you happen to live in Australia. Sorry if I got your hopes up.

And this, in a nutshell, tells us where the retailers really stand. They've been looking to get behind a format, and they're behind Blu-ray now. Sure, they're trying to dump their existing HD DVD stock, but all the bundles with HDTVs are Blu-ray, so they know where the future lies.

[reider]

Originally Posted by SGRSBSKIER

I am just going to through something out there as I understand it someone correct me if you think I am wrong because I am not sure my self.

Ok, How do we find out how many discs have been sold this year?
Well SI numbers were (as of 12/30):
BD: ----- 6.1 million
HDDVD: - 3.7 million
for a 62:38 ratio (62.245 for BD)

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/...slippage_N.htm
Redhill Group

Now SI is 64:36 and assuming HMM rounds to the nearest whole so it could be 63.499:35.501

So since 12/30 BD had to of sold at least 622k and thats if HDDVD sold 0 and they have some the YTD is 76:24 so sales since 12/30 would most likely be around:

750k:231k

BD has to be more than 622k, but less than 1.5 million to get SI to be 64:36 and then HDDVD has to make up 24% of the total

My best guess for each week would be:

243k:131k (64.97:35.03 week 64.97:35.03 YTD)
227k:40k (85.02:14.98 week 73.32:26.68 YTD)
293k:60k (83:17 week 76.76:23.24 YTD)

763k:231k YTD

Your estimate of total sales based on SI numbers seemed to be correct, but the weekly numbers are wrong.

My calculations show the following change in volume of sales: (I am not sure if anybody wants to see the actual calculations - it's a triple equation system with four variables solved for ratio BDweek1/BDweek2)

Blu during week 2 sold 7% more then during week 1
Blu during week 3 sold a whooping 38% less then during week 2.

What is going on! I guess some people got too comfortable with the idea that Blu has already won, and slowed down their purchasing ??

P.S. I did have a headache whole day so if somebody proves me wrong - I will not get upset.

[ryoohki]

Originally Posted by reider

Your estimate of total sales based on SI numbers seemed to be correct, but the weekly numbers are wrong.

My calculations show the following change in volume of sales: (I am not sure if anybody wants to see them... it's a triple equation system with four variables solved for ratio BDweek1/BDweek2)

Blu on week 2 sold 7% more then week 1
Blu on week 3 sold a whooping 38% less then week 2.

What is going on! I guess some people got too comfortable with the idea that Blu has already won, and slowed down their purchasing ??

P.S. I did have a headacje whole day so if somebody proves me wrong - I will not get upset.

Crappy title release don't help. It's a fact that most people buy their movie the first 2 weeks after that it die down drastically..

[shug7272]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

Are you a mod yourself? I always think it's funny when someone posts that someone else isn't allowed to tell others what they're allowed to do.

I think this is a pretty unmoderated thread, and I don't think the mods are really looking to get involved ("if it were a problem the mods would tell us"), so I don't have a problem with people expressing an opinion on what they believe the point of this thread should be. I also don't have a problem with people suggesting that there be a separate thread just for guessing (which would in fact be my preference as well).



Dave Vaughn was the primary leaker, and he announced well in advance that he was going to stop leaking the number, so it's not really a surprise or proof of anything that the leaks have stopped.



Not trying to piss anyone off, but since we're all guessing, I'll go with 89:11.

I think we're on track for 90s very soon, and I think the people that think it's going to swing back into the mid- to low 70s "as things get back to normal" are mistaken. I also think people looking for a big change to start after Warner stops making HD DVDs in May are mistaken, as the writing being on the wall is enough to effect most of the change well in advance of that.

People told me I was crazy when I said we'd have 90s by February. After last week, I asked if it sounded so hard to believe now, and I was told that yes, it was, because it gets harder to shift the numbers the higher you go.

But it's only harder if Blu-ray has to do it solely by making massive gains. It's not that hard if HD DVD is imploding...and HD DVD is imploding.

Whatever you say, Clay. My point still remains, if they wanted you to mod here, they would ask you. Have a good one.

Originally Posted by unreal1080p

Not pretending to be a mod... just pointing out the obvious: Somebody looking for ACTUAL numbers is going to have a hard time finding them while siftting through 150+ predictions. Logicaly, it would make sense to have a seperate thread out of common courtesy for folks just trying to get to the ACTUAL numbers.

Uhhh... They are on the front page. Easy to find. Not to mention once they come out every page has the numbers repeated by someone, (and again) not to mention all of the graphs. I found them in two seconds.

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by shug7272

Uhhh... They are on the front page. Easy to find. Not to mention once they come out every page has the numbers repeated by someone, (and again) not to mention all of the graphs. I found them in two seconds.

I don't know why people are still arguing this.... There is allready a SEPARATE THREAD for next weeks predictions:

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=33819

so OBVIOUSLY somebody agrees with me (also makes it a heck of a lot easier to tabulate contest results).
Give it a rest.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by badboi

These people must be from the same village of idiots. Scroll down to Super XP's posts.

http://www.highdefforum.com/showthread.php?t=63417

And aren't Amazon figures counted in the Neilsens?

Yes, the Nielsen numbers include Amazon. Kind of funny, but actually more sad that Super XP has over 3900 posts and hasn't figured out that Amazon is included in the Nielsen numbers. Especially when that person is talking about misinformation while spreading it. If anybody had any question about whether Amazon was included, those got answered when there were BOGO deals on Amazon for the first four Harry Potter movies on HD DVD and then on Blu-ray the next week. Likely because of the delayed shipping when people choose Super Saver shipping the HP titles didn't show until the data for the weeks just after the sales, but they did show up and there is pretty much no chance they would have showed up like they did after the Amazon BOGO deals, if Amazon wasn't included. This isn't even including a case a while ago when a title included with the PS3 on Amazon showed up in the top 10 when there was no other reason for it to show up, but the Harry Potter catalog title situation definitely confirmed that Amazon is included. All a person has to do is look at the rankings that came out January 13th and then the ones that came out January 20th and look at what happened with Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire after the HD DVD version was #1 on Amazon one week and then the Blu-ray version was #1 on Amazon the next week (because of BOGO deals).

The fact that multiple people on the HD DVD side have claimed that Amazon isn't included in the Nielsen numbers (including one Microsoft insider on AVS) when they are should tell people a lot about how much some people have felt the need to discredit those numbers.

--Darin

[unreal1080p]

The Evolution of the SI numbers from the 2nd half of 07 till now:

4 weeks to go from 59/39 to 60/40.
6 weeks to go from 60/40 to 61/39.
15 weeks to go from 61/39 to 62/38.
5 weeks to go from 62/38 to 63/37
1 week to go from 63/37 to 64/36

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by reider

Blu during week 2 sold 7% more then during week 1
Blu during week 3 sold a whooping 38% less then during week 2.

What is going on! I guess some people got too comfortable with the idea that Blu has already won, and slowed down their purchasing ??

3:10 to Yuma (Western) and Sunshine (SF) had much more HD appeal than Good Luck Chuck and Mr Woodcock (two comedies).

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by Grubert

3:10 to Yuma (Western) and Sunshine (SF) had much more HD appeal than Good Luck Chuck and Mr Woodcock (two comedies).

This is the same logic you'd hear during the DVD early days, and it's true to a certain extent, but after a while it breaks down.

The bottom line ends up being that if you want Good Luck Chuck and you have a BD player, you're probably going to buy it on BD, not DVD.

After a while the main difference ends up being the titles with HD appeal will drive player sales, whereas Good Luck Chuck will not.

(As I mentioned, this argument went on in the DVD days, with people actually advocating only spending the few extra bucks for DVDs instead of VHS if it was a movie that made it worth it. I imagine there are some people out there that ended up sorry they took that approach and probably ended up repurchasing at least some of the movies on DVD and spending more money in the long run. History will repeat itself, as people pulling out old comedy favorites in a few years to watch on their $400 80-inch TV will regret being cheap and getting it on DVD.)

[upnorthsox]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

This is the same logic you'd hear during the DVD early days, and it's true to a certain extent, but after a while it breaks down.

The bottom line ends up being that if you want Good Luck Chuck and you have a BD player, you're probably going to buy it on BD, not DVD.

After a while the main difference ends up being the titles with HD appeal will drive player sales, whereas Good Luck Chuck will not.

(As I mentioned, this argument went on in the DVD days, with people actually advocating only spending the few extra bucks for DVDs instead of VHS if it was a movie that made it worth it. I imagine there are some people out there that ended up sorry they took that approach and probably ended up repurchasing at least some of the movies on DVD and spending more money in the long run. History will repeat itself, as people pulling out old comedy favorites in a few years to watch on their $400 80-inch TV will regret being cheap and getting it on DVD.)

Agreed and I was one of those, that's why this time I just switched to Blu only and won't look back.

[Winn]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

I imagine there are some people out there that ended up sorry they took that approach and probably ended up repurchasing at least some of the movies on DVD and spending more money in the long run.

At least this time everyone who follows this path will still be able to play it in the next generation player.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by reider

Your estimate of total sales based on SI numbers seemed to be correct, but the weekly numbers are wrong.

My calculations show the following change in volume of sales: (I am not sure if anybody wants to see the actual calculations - it's a triple equation system with four variables solved for ratio BDweek1/BDweek2)

Blu during week 2 sold 7% more then during week 1
Blu during week 3 sold a whooping 38% less then during week 2.

What is going on! I guess some people got too comfortable with the idea that Blu has already won, and slowed down their purchasing ??

P.S. I did have a headache whole day so if somebody proves me wrong - I will not get upset.

I posted an example earlier of a scenario that demonstrates how volume could have gone up in the most recent week. I'm not saying this did happen, only that the volume figures I put in for weeks 1 to 3 below deliver the YTD numbers that we have seen published in HMM. Remember that HMM do not round up the Blu-ray number, they simply chop off the decimal places and then round up the HD DVD number - even if it's 23.03!

YTD progression

Wk / Total HDM Vol / BD / HD DVD
Week 1 / 225000 / 65.00% / 35.00%
Week 2 / 185000 / 74.02% / 25.98%
Week 3 200000 / 76.97% / 23.03%

Week 2 vol. goes down. Week 3 vol. goes up.

Edit: BD vol goes up in week 2 and also in week 3 (forgot to add that).

HMM report YTD as:

Wk1: 65:35
Wk2: 74:26
Wk3: 76:24

If you want to post your "triple equation system with four variables" then I could see better what you think happened and why your volume dropped in week 3. I don't entirely buy the week release slate argument.

On the growth of the user base for Blu-ray, if the leaked NPD numbers are accurate then for January to date there will be approx. 60,000 additional Blu-ray standalones sold and 150,000 PS3's (with around 50,000 of those being bought by people interested in Blu-ray movie playback). I estimate that the active Blu-ray customer base stands at around 1.5 million and is currently growing by 30-40,000 per week.

I'm guessing that's one of your variables?

[Anthony P]

because there were massive returns from the hd dvd side and little sales. there is a chance that planet earth was actually in negative numbers this week for hd dvd, but since theoretically blu-ray cannot have over 100% of the planet earth sales and hd dvd cannot have less than 0% of the sales, we get the 43.35 for blu-ray and for both blu-ray and hd dvd.

You don't know that. It is your assumption there are many things that could be part of it. why would it be this exact week that everyone brought it back? The truth is we don't even know if it is 0. if #1 sold 100 000 then it could have sold 10 disks and it might not make any difference in the numbers. Let's face it, there is no new HD DVD player owners and probably anyone that had an HD DVD player before already bought it if they where even remotely interested in it.

I am not saying what you said is wrong, but one can't assume that it was at best 0 and one can't assume that it was so low <=0 or one digit because of returns. HD DVD players are just not selling to new customers and the few that are will tend to be to dumb HD DVD fan boys that think "I can spent a bit, have a spare machine and get a few more movies at a great price" and if that is the case then they won’t buy a second copy of the same movie.