81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[reider]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

Perhaps, but Blu-ray had a much higher hurdle to jump than DVD. With DVD, almost everyone could use their existing TV. With Blu-ray, the vast majority of people have to buy a new TV to take advantage of it.

How many HDTVs are there today compared to the number of SDTVs out there during DVD's launch?

We are definitely in agreement that HDM had, have and will continue having a much higher fence to jump. That is why I amended that the HDM's adoption curve will look convex as opposed to DVD's concave curve. And I do believe Blu-Ray will become mainstream (I wouldn't be spending my time here otherwise). All I am saying is that I resent posts proclaiming that it had happened already and that I am a little concerned about the very sharp (much sharper then in January '07) drop in Blu-Ray sales volume over past two weeks.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by blu2

They could be mistaken regarding sold vs shipped however (the article flips between sold and shipped in many instances in the timeline). Any other definitive links?

The article you cited goes on to say this about 1998: "Year's software shipments quadruple to 98 million discs."

That would indicate the 23 million number for 1997 is number of discs shipped, not sold. Otherwise they would have had to have sold everything that they shipped in 1997.

Hopefully someone will come up with some accurate numbers. I have no idea what the sold-to-shipped ratio would be.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by reider

I am a little concerned about the very sharp (much sharper then in January '07) drop in Blu-Ray sales volume over past two weeks.

Can you quantify this claim?

[reider]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You have to be going from launch of HD-DVD, not Blu-Ray.

DVD was no where near 23 million discs at this point on the Blu-Ray timeline. We are about 20 months in to Blu-Ray

From March of 1996 (DVD release) to 20 months later (End of October 1997) ~7 million DVDs were sold. Admittedly I'm guessing here. The only numbers I have is 3.7 million discs sold from January through August of 1997. I think I'm being awfully generous doubling that number however. No way in hell did they have 23 million discs however.

What are you talking about, my friend? 1996? The first DVD movies to hit US market were in March 1997. And 21 months later according to that USAToday article there were 23M disks sold. I've seen some other articles (The Hollywood Reporter) that claim 70% of retailers sold 9.3M DVD's in 1998 ... I don't really know which one to believe.

[reider]

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

Can you quantify this claim?

Sure, look at the graph posted on the previous page. Blu-Ray sales are falling from a 65k peak down to 45k - approx. 30%. Then look at my weekly numbers for January from 300k to 165k - approx. 45%... and that's assuming that 2nd week of January was actually a peak in Blu-Ray sales qty (doubtful).

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by reider

What are you talking about, my friend? 1996? The first DVD movies to hit US market were in March 1997. And 21 months later according to that USAToday article there were 23M disks sold. I've seen some other articles (The Hollywood Reporter) that claim 70% of retailers sold 9.3M DVD's in 1998 ... I don't really know which one to believe.

Change 1996 to 1997 and 1997 to 1998 and what I said still remains true. I mistyped the first year and based the second one on that.

Originally Posted by Terjyn

From March of 1997 (DVD release) to 20 months later (End of October 1998) ~7 million DVDs were sold. Admittedly I'm guessing here. The only numbers I have is 3.7 million discs sold from January through August of 1998. I think I'm being awfully generous doubling that number however. No way in hell did they have 23 million discs however.

Where did the 23 million number come from?

I refuse to believe that number however, I was an early adopter for DVD as well. Blu-Ray shoppers may be scarce, but it's NOTHING compared to DVD, where I had the format for a year before I saw another person even looking at the discs.

I'd believe 23 million for the HDM market if you go by the start of HD-DVD. That adds another year.

From January 1998 through August 1999 DVD sold about 19 million, so that's completely believable.

[juanleche]

I predict 18:1 next week

[reider]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Where did the 23 million number come from?

I refuse to believe that number however, I was an early adopter for DVD as well. Blu-Ray shoppers may be scarce, but it's NOTHING compared to DVD, where I had the format for a year before I saw another person even looking at the discs.

The number came from:
http://www.usatoday.com/life/2002-10...timeline_x.htm

Note that it also places the quantity of DVD players at only 1.4M - that's why you saw less DVD buyers in the stores then Blu-Ray shoppers now. They were fewer, but they bought 14 disks each on average... is it believable? I think yes. Personally, in 1998 I bought much more then that...

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by reider

Sure, look at the graph posted on the previous page. Blu-Ray sales are falling from a 65k peak down to 45k - approx. 30%. Then look at my weekly numbers for January from 300k to 165k - approx. 45%... and that's assuming that 2nd week of January was actually a peak in Blu-Ray sales qty (doubtful).

I had a go with your numbers and got the 7% drop week 1 to week 2. Obviously that's making some assumptions with the actual ratios. I didn't go to the week 2 to week 3 - but it's a reasonable scenario that:

Blu during week 2 sold 7% more then during week 1
Blu during week 3 sold 38% less then during week 2.

But where does the 300k and 165k come from exactly?

One thing is very important for volume guessers to keep in mind:

Home Media Magazine DO NOT ROUND BLU-RAY RATIOS!

They simply chop off the decimal places.

This means that, taking the last set of numbers, the following is possible:

Weekly Published: 82:18
Actual Blu-ray share somewhere within the range 82% - 82.99%

YTD Published: 77:33
Actual Blu-ray share somewhere within the range 77% - 77.99%

SI Published: 64:36
Actual Blu-ray share somewhere within the range 64% - 64.99%

IMO unless you work for Nielsen or a studio you cannot know the volume. But you can make an educated guess. Or even a calculated guess.

A year ago HMM used to publish the ratio to 2 decimal places and Icemage came up with a spreadsheet that calculated the volume weekly - quite accurately and backed up by Nielsen numbers reported in the media.

Since HMM started publishing only whole numbers estimating volumes is a lot more tricky.

Then there's the fact that we have 3 different volume measurements possible:

1) Nielsen 1st Alert (probably covering the bulk of Nielsen reporting stores)
2) Nielsen Final (includes the late sales reporters)

There probably isn't a huge difference between 1st Alert and Final IMO.

3) Studio estimates. These are based on Nielsen numbers with an estimation for the part of the market not covered by Nielsen (My guess is that Nielsen cover 65% of the HDM market) and studios often include product shipped to the rental chain to boost the figures.

So, in the end, you pays your money and you takes your guess, but anyone laying claim to being accurate better have good reason - and some evidence would help.

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by reider

They were fewer, but they bought 14 disks each on average... is it believable? I think yes. Personally, in 1998 I bought much more then that...

I bought tons too during those days. It seemed like everyone was having DVD lossleader sales. Plus there was reel.com where most new releases were $12.

It is funny how people talk about how cheap DVD got, when in reality it actually went up in price in two steps. First the normal new release sale price averaged between $16-$20 for full featured discs. Then the second was when they started dual releases with one barebones for that $16 price and then a dual disc with features for $22+.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by reider

The number came from:
http://www.usatoday.com/life/2002-10...timeline_x.htm

Note that it also places the quantity of DVD players at only 1.4M - that's why you saw less DVD buyers in the stores then Blu-Ray shoppers now. They were fewer, but they bought 14 disks each on average... is it believable? I think yes. Personally, in 1998 I bought much more then that...

This is completely unbelievable. There is zero chance that they had an attach rate of 16.4 in just that year.

Some how they screwed up the numbers. Maybe they got their sales total from Paramount.

I think this line is the key, for the following year:

Year's software shipments quadruple to 98 million discs.

This is 4x the 23 million total. This tells me 23 million is the number shipped. THAT I believe.

There are probably 20 million + Blu-Rays shipped since inception too...look how many retailers are forced to have just sitting around in case people want to buy them.

[Anthony P]

HDM is not doing bad at all (5x sales comparing Jan07 & Jan08 is great!); BUT the "it's a done deal... Blu is going mainstream... there's nothing stopping us now" attitude is grossly premature.

the problem is that "grossly premature" or any type of premature can only happen once the outcome is known

[reider]

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

I had a go with your numbers and got the 7% drop week 1 to week 2.

Actually you should have gotten 7% raise from week 1 to week 2.

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

But where does the 300k and 165k come from exactly?

From the same YTD volume you were playing with ( the one that was estimated using SI and the published numbers for December)

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

One thing is very important for volume guessers to keep in mind:

Home Media Magazine DO NOT ROUND BLU-RAY RATIOS!

They simply chop off the decimal places.

Decimal or no decimal, you should have realized (with a little more math) that for the first few weeks the error margin introduced by decimal truncation is very small. This margin is growing every week, and already with February numbers the error can reach a +/- 100% swing. Certainly, I have no intentions to continue my calculations further on unless I can find more precise sales ratios (doubtful).

Originally Posted by Fozziwig

So, in the end, you pays your money and you takes your guess, but anyone laying claim to being accurate better have good reason - and some evidence would help.

Hey, you were the one to start playing with numbers and volume assumptions... I just offered you numbers (with amended approximation) that resulted from math transactions as opposed to your numbers that were pulled from ... you know where.

[davidPS3]

We are a ways off from being mainstream. We are on the radar though and getting noticed. Give it time to grow. I know I am enjoying the experience of being a part of something very exciting.

[reider]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

the problem is that "grossly premature" or any type of premature can only happen once the outcome is known

Good one.

[ACD]

From Hollywood Reporter: 'Saw,' 'Game Plan' top DVD sales for week of Feb. 3

On the high-definition disc front, Lionsgate's "3:10 to Yuma" was the top-selling Blu-ray Disc for the week ending Feb. 3, while Paramount's "Transformers" was the top-selling HD DVD title.

The top-selling HD release for the week was Warner/BBC's "Planet Earth: The Complete Collection," available on both Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD.

Looks like a slow week for both formats. I wonder what the Planet Earth split is this week.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by reider

Actually you should have gotten 7% raise from week 1 to week 2.

From the same YTD volume you were playing with ( the one that was estimated using SI and the published numbers for December)

................................

Hey, you were the one to start playing with numbers and volume assumptions... I just offered you numbers (with amended approximation) that resulted from math transactions as opposed to your numbers that were pulled from ... you know where.

[sorry, I meant say 7% increase!]

The fact that HMM truncate weekly ratios is not so much a problem, but when they apply the same crude adjustemt to YTD and SI it does become a problem. High volumes are required to move the SI even 1%. So not knowing if the SI figure is 64.00 or 64.99 ( or if the previous week was 63.00 or 63.99) is a problem IMO.

Anyway, it would be fantastic if 300k BD movies sold for 1 week in January. In fact Blu-ray needs that sort of weekly number to hit the 40 million unit target that has been set by the BDA for 2008.

We will probably get sporadic leaks of actual data anyway which will tell us exactly how well Blu-ray is doing in volume terms.

AFAIK We have had NO volume information released in 2008.

We have had this info via the Redhill group:

http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/...slippage_N.htm

Which SGRSBSKIER used to base his volume guesses on.
https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...ostcount=10995

Now SI is 64:36 and assuming HMM rounds to the nearest whole so it could be 63.499:35.501

In fact the number is anything between 64.01 and 64.99. It certainly is not as high as 35.501 (or as low as 63.499)!

The other issue to note is that the numbers (6.1 million) from Redhill are not Nielsen numbers. They are Redhill estimates of volume. Their estimates may be very good, but they are estimates (the BDA used a lower number at their CES press conference BTW and I would have expected them to use the more generous estimate if it was accurate - the BDA will be using studio estimates based on Nielsen volumes).

Confirmed by Grubert:

Those figures from the Redhill Group are obviously higher than the Nielsen ones (David Vaughn said that YTD Nielsen only showed 9 titles doing six figures, and Ratatouille was just under 100K). So these estimates you see above include retailers outside Nielsen.

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/show...postcount=1443

So the 6.1 million is quite a bit higher than the number Nielsen have (and above studio estimates). Any volume guesses made using the 6.1 million number as a base will therefore be extrapolated volume guesses (not guesses for Nielsen volumes).

Incidentally, I have never posted any estimates based on the volume guesses posted by SGRSBSKIER or the Redhill estimates. But, for all I know SGRSBSKIER may be absolutely bang on the nail - and I hope he is!

[Blu Titan]

From The Hollywood Reporter:

"On the high-definition disc front, Lionsgate's "3:10 to Yuma" was the top-selling Blu-ray Disc for the week ending Feb. 3, while Paramount's "Transformers" was the top-selling HD DVD title.

The top-selling HD release for the week was Warner/BBC's "Planet Earth: The Complete Collection," available on both Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD.


Save Print Email Reprints 'Saw,' 'Game Plan' top DVD sales for week of Feb. 3
By Thomas K. Arnold"


http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/...34785db0f13911

[Living Near Shamu]

Has anyone leaked the numbers yet?

[Grubert]

Adam Gregorich, HTF administrator, has 'predicted' 75:25. I think we might have a new Vaughn oracle here.