81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[reider]

Originally Posted by blindcat87

Keep in mind that recent information released shows HDM beating the DVD adoption curve. Even though this includes both formats, given the ratios, I think this shows that BD is doing pretty good.

Chris

I would really like to have a link to that information you speak of. You probably mean the players and not the media...
DVD had 23 million disks sold for 1.4 million players at approximately the same point on the adoption timeline as HDM. With more Hi-Def players then DVD had, we have less then half the disk sales then DVD had.
I do think though, that the adoption curves for DVD and HDM should look completely different (something like x^(1/2) vs x^(2) in the zero to one region) due to "good enough" factor and the mandatory DTV in '09 - so I am not too worried [yet ].

[reider]

Originally Posted by MarekM

here are some numbers collected from various sources (few links from Grubert ) and numbers for this year from this post...

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...ostcount=10995

numbers for 2008 are without last week of january, so Blu-ray can be very close to 1mil units sold for january

2008 so far :

Blu-ray 0.763 mil units sold
HD DVD 0.231 mil units sold

Marek

His total 2008 volume calculations seem plausible; but as I've showed previously, his weekly 2008 volume assumptions are completely wrong. These numbers for Blu-Ray should be:

Week 1 : 278,000 (approx.)
Week 2 : 299,000 (approx.)
Week 3 : 186,000 (approx.)
Week 4 : 165,000 (approx.)

Totals for January: 928k : 277k (approx.)

[reider]

Originally Posted by Neo65

For reference, here's the historical weekly sales since launch (from grubert) :


You'll see that Q1 is traditionally very low volume. This is logical since even on relative terms, toys, DVD players and disks sales drop compared to Q4 because of the post xmas shopping effect.

The valid comparison would be Jan'08 vs Jan'07 and every indication is that sales are still much higher than in '07.

Agreed. Looks like during Jan '08 Blu-Ray sold about 5 times more then during Jan '07. Very solid growth indeed.
HD DVD tripled their sales in the same comparison.

[MarekM]

Originally Posted by reider

His total 2008 volume calculations seem plausible; but as I've showed previously, his weekly 2008 volume assumptions are completely wrong. These numbers for Blu-Ray should be:

Week 1 : 278,000 (approx.)
Week 2 : 299,000 (approx.)
Week 3 : 186,000 (approx.)
Week 4 : 165,000 (approx.)

Totals for January: 928k : 277k (approx.)

I think he calculated only first 3 weeks, as you can see on link I posted...

Marek

[reider]

Originally Posted by MarekM

I think he calculated only first 3 weeks, as you can see on link I posted...

Marek

He did not "calculate" the first three weeks, he made assumptions that if combined together would match the total quantity.

My numbers are actually "calculated" in a true sense of the word.

[MarekM]

Originally Posted by reider

He did not "calculate" the first three weeks, he made assumptions that if combined together would match the total quantity.

My numbers are actually "calculated" in a true sense of the word.

ok

Marek

[Anthony P]

When does it become a "trend"?

what do you mean for HD DVD fans even BD leading is still just a bump caused by PS3 owners that have no games to buy and when good games come out no one will buy movies and HD DVD will be ahead again

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

what do you mean for HD DVD fans even BD leading is still just a bump caused by PS3 owners that have no games to buy and when good games come out no one will buy movies and HD DVD will be ahead again

HD-DVD being ahead is SO 2006.

Logan

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by jkcheng122

until Ken Graffeo admits defeat, i think we can continue accusing him, not the red boys, of being so stupid they think every 1% is a major victory.

KG is apparently a lot more realistic when talking privately. His job requires him to say a lot of what he is publically saying.

The man is allowed to earn a living, right?

Look to the decision people, like KG's boss Craig Kornblau, as the ones that should be held accountable.

Gary

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by reider

I would really like to have a link to that information you speak of. You probably mean the players and not the media...
DVD had 23 million disks sold for 1.4 million players at approximately the same point on the adoption timeline as HDM. With more Hi-Def players then DVD had, we have less then half the disk sales then DVD had.
I do think though, that the adoption curves for DVD and HDM should look completely different (something like x^(1/2) vs x^(2) in the zero to one region) due to "good enough" factor and the mandatory DTV in '09 - so I am not too worried [yet ].

I'm guessing blindcat87 is referring to this:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6525812.html

As you say, it is referring to player sales. Like blindcat87, I mistakenly thought it was talking about disc sales until I read it again just now.

So, yeah, it's mixed news. Ahead on players, behind on discs. If they're counting the PS3 as a player, it is a fact that a lot of people don't use it for Blu-ray Discs (and a lot do, such as me, so no flames please). On the red side, there seem to be a large number of people buying backup players and players for friends and family that might not necessarily have any interest. Not to mention that HD DVD player prices are so low that some people seem to be building their movie collections by picking up another player and getting more free discs.

And, as has been noted before, there is the "good enough" phenomenon where people aren't going to re-buy something they already have on DVD unless it's a real favorite. A lot of people got into movie collecting for the first time with DVDs, but I'm guessing almost everyone getting into Blu-ray already has an extensive movie collection.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by reider

His total 2008 volume calculations seem plausible; but as I've showed previously, his weekly 2008 volume assumptions are completely wrong. These numbers for Blu-Ray should be:

Week 1 : 278,000 (approx.)
Week 2 : 299,000 (approx.)
Week 3 : 186,000 (approx.)
Week 4 : 165,000 (approx.)

Totals for January: 928k : 277k (approx.)

928k in january is essentially much less than december 07, which is 1.7M, but this is expected because post xmas, january sales are always down, in all companies that supply electronics components to CE for example, the quarter that did not include revenue from end of november always visibly dips.

But what is important is also that from launch, BD took 9 months (jun06-mar07) to sell their first 1M disks, 3 months to sell their 2nd million, December was 1.7M, january at about 1M is already much higher than january of 12 months ago.

[aristotles]

Originally Posted by Neo65

928k in january is essentially much less than december 07, which is 1.7M, but this is expected because post xmas, january sales are always down, in all companies that supply electronics components to CE for example, the quarter that did not include revenue from end of november always visibly dips.

But what is important is also that from launch, BD took 9 months (jun06-mar07) to sell their first 1M disks, 3 months to sell their 2nd million, December was 1.7M, january at about 1M is already much higher than january of 12 months ago.

+1
People on the net seem to have only short term memory and never seem to look at the larger trends in the big picture.

[reider]

Originally Posted by Neo65

928k in january is essentially much less than december 07, which is 1.7M, but this is expected because post xmas, january sales are always down, in all companies that supply electronics components to CE for example, the quarter that did not include revenue from end of november always visibly dips.

But what is important is also that from launch, BD took 9 months (jun06-mar07) to sell their first 1M disks, 3 months to sell their 2nd million, December was 1.7M, january at about 1M is already much higher than january of 12 months ago.

Actually, people on the net seem to have too much of a long term memory. And they can't help but compare the DVD adoption to HDM adoption. Please don't assume people are dumb and can't see beyond their noses. The "larger trends" and the "big picture" look pretty bleak if compared to DVD's explosive growth of 23M disks sold during its first full year of sales.
HDM is not doing bad at all (5x sales comparing Jan07 & Jan08 is great!); BUT the "it's a done deal... Blu is going mainstream... there's nothing stopping us now" attitude is grossly premature.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by reider

HDM is not doing bad at all (5x sales comparing Jan07 & Jan08 is great!); BUT the "it's a done deal... Blu is going mainstream... there's nothing stopping us now" attitude is grossly premature.

Perhaps, but Blu-ray had a much higher hurdle to jump than DVD. With DVD, almost everyone could use their existing TV. With Blu-ray, the vast majority of people have to buy a new TV to take advantage of it.

How many HDTVs are there today compared to the number of SDTVs out there during DVD's launch?

[blindcat87]

I don't have a link to the specific update. It was on Bill's "My Two Cents" update not too long ago. All of the posts are archived, so it would still be there. I would go dig it up for you, but the archives are a pain for me to navigate with text to speech.

Chris

Originally Posted by reider

I would really like to have a link to that information you speak of. You probably mean the players and not the media...
DVD had 23 million disks sold for 1.4 million players at approximately the same point on the adoption timeline as HDM. With more Hi-Def players then DVD had, we have less then half the disk sales then DVD had.
I do think though, that the adoption curves for DVD and HDM should look completely different (something like x^(1/2) vs x^(2) in the zero to one region) due to "good enough" factor and the mandatory DTV in '09 - so I am not too worried [yet ].

[blindcat87]

That is the story that the Digital Bits update I was thinking of discussed. Actually, I thought it covered both hardware and software.

I still don't think there is any reason to be concerned. You have to consider that in addition to the seasonal slowdown, you also have the effect of the format war which has dragged on much longer than the DIVX/DVD war did.

There really is no way to calculate the real effect of the format war on format growth, but I have always believed that the real time for BD to take off would come after the war is truly concluded. In truth, I think the growth of Blu-Ray has been amazing considering how hard the competition and its diehards have tried and tried to stamp it out. I think things will continue going well for Blu and that we will see amazing things after Toshiba finally catches up with the rest of us and gets a dose of reality.

Chris

Originally Posted by TheRealBob

I'm guessing blindcat87 is referring to this:

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6525812.html

As you say, it is referring to player sales. Like blindcat87, I mistakenly thought it was talking about disc sales until I read it again just now.

So, yeah, it's mixed news. Ahead on players, behind on discs. If they're counting the PS3 as a player, it is a fact that a lot of people don't use it for Blu-ray Discs (and a lot do, such as me, so no flames please). On the red side, there seem to be a large number of people buying backup players and players for friends and family that might not necessarily have any interest. Not to mention that HD DVD player prices are so low that some people seem to be building their movie collections by picking up another player and getting more free discs.

And, as has been noted before, there is the "good enough" phenomenon where people aren't going to re-buy something they already have on DVD unless it's a real favorite. A lot of people got into movie collecting for the first time with DVDs, but I'm guessing almost everyone getting into Blu-ray already has an extensive movie collection.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by reider

I would really like to have a link to that information you speak of. You probably mean the players and not the media...
DVD had 23 million disks sold for 1.4 million players at approximately the same point on the adoption timeline as HDM. With more Hi-Def players then DVD had, we have less then half the disk sales then DVD had.
I do think though, that the adoption curves for DVD and HDM should look completely different (something like x^(1/2) vs x^(2) in the zero to one region) due to "good enough" factor and the mandatory DTV in '09 - so I am not too worried [yet ].

You have to be going from launch of HD-DVD, not Blu-Ray.

DVD was no where near 23 million discs at this point on the Blu-Ray timeline. We are about 20 months in to Blu-Ray

From March of 1996 (DVD release) to 20 months later (End of October 1997) ~7 million DVDs were sold. Admittedly I'm guessing here. The only numbers I have is 3.7 million discs sold from January through August of 1997. I think I'm being awfully generous doubling that number however. No way in hell did they have 23 million discs however.

[Merlins]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You have to be going from launch of HD-DVD, not Blu-Ray.

DVD was no where near 23 million discs at this point on the Blu-Ray timeline. We are about 20 months in to Blu-Ray

From March of 1996 (DVD release) to 20 months later (End of October 1997) ~7 million DVDs were sold. Admittedly I'm guessing here. The only numbers I have is 3.7 million discs sold from January through August of 1997. I think I'm being awfully generous doubling that number however. No way in hell did they have 23 million discs however.

DVD had about 20 million shipped. Shipped and sold are two very different things. You are probably right about the ~7 million.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You have to be going from launch of HD-DVD, not Blu-Ray.

DVD was no where near 23 million discs at this point on the Blu-Ray timeline. We are about 20 months in to Blu-Ray

From March of 1996 (DVD release) to 20 months later (End of October 1997) ~7 million DVDs were sold. Admittedly I'm guessing here. The only numbers I have is 3.7 million discs sold from January through August of 1997. I think I'm being awfully generous doubling that number however. No way in hell did they have 23 million discs however.

Based on the following, 23 million DVDs were sold in 1998. DVD was lauched in the US in March 1997.

http://www.usatoday.com/life/2002-10...timeline_x.htm

December. 1.4 million DVD players are in U.S. homes; 23 million discs are sold for the year. Computer makers announce shipments of 6 million PCs with DVD drives.

They could be mistaken regarding sold vs shipped however (the article flips between sold and shipped in many instances in the timeline). Any other definitive links?

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You have to be going from launch of HD-DVD, not Blu-Ray.

Yes, let's toss HD DVD overboard in this discussion. It's not going anywhere, so who cares what its numbers would show.

So let's look at Blu-ray vs. DVD:

Originally Posted by Terjyn

DVD was no where near 23 million discs at this point on the Blu-Ray timeline. We are about 20 months in to Blu-Ray

Blu-ray disc sales started in mid-June 2006, I believe. So that would mean the first 20 months ends in mid-February 2008.

Originally Posted by Terjyn

From March of 1996 (DVD release) to 20 months later (End of October 1997) ~7 million DVDs were sold. Admittedly I'm guessing here. The only numbers I have is 3.7 million discs sold from January through August of 1997. I think I'm being awfully generous doubling that number however. No way in hell did they have 23 million discs however.

A previous poster said Blu-ray has sold 6.1 million discs through December 2007 and estimated 6.87 million discs sold through January 2008 (a few weeks shy of 20 months).

If Terjyn is correct that it is a generous estimate that DVDs sold 7 million in their first 20 months, then BDs selling 6.87 units in less than their first 20 months is a tremendous success.

Perhaps the "it's a done deal... Blu is going mainstream... there's nothing stopping us now" attitude is right on track after all.

But I'm sure others will have a lot to say on this...