The rumor is that Warner is coming aboard soon

[blindcat87]

My bad. I actually thought it came in the form of a press release. But I also thought the lack of a personal retraction/downplay/etc. was of note.

Chris

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

Actually they only told highdefdigest.com that nothing had changed. Not that you are wrong, but "put out," as you said, may to some sound like WB called a press conference or made an announcement.
Interesting to note that Mr Silverberg never retracted or diffused his own comments.

[Neo65]

The actual rumor is a very simple one.

"That WB will look at sales in Q4 and decide to pick on format in 2008."

The rumor is either

(a) true in light of what Silverberg first said (subsequently sidestepped by claims of 'out of context' quote by other official WB comments), what Michael Burns subsequently said, what Pali Research said, what P-Man said, or

(b) false and WB is not looking at Q4 sales as a decision point to pick a side in 2008.

The rest is conjecture on our part. Either (a) or (b) is true.

It can be construed that if (a) was true, the outcome is done since after so many weeks of movie sales data, it is difficult to imagine a scenario by which the red disks will take Dec07 let alone Q4 '07, or Jan '08. Other than (maybe) Bourne week, there is no likelihood of any red week in Q4 or Jan08.

That's probably why some people think the end is near. But the claim is that if you want to watch a movie, the BD still have to be bought to be part of that final tally. This is different from saying that the decision to pick BD is already done.

Any logical person who follows the sales data would find think that if WB was waiting for the sales data to pick a side, they'd have to say that the odds are ... ... ... well, lets just connect the dots and not say anything prejudicial even if a 5th grader would look at all the sales information and draw his own conclusions.

[ryoohki]

I don't know about the US, but here in Montreal, Bourne didn't move one bit, it's a 37.99$CAD Combo disc. What moves, Harry Potter 5 Disc set and the last one. Those were flying off shelve, but the moment i grabbed my BluRay Version, 2 were gone (BluRay Too), while they had ton of HD DVD and DVD (DVD section was almost empty, HD DVD was full with about 30-40 copies, the Harry Potter section was almost empty in all formats...)

[shug7272]

Originally Posted by Rob Tomlin

I am NOT one who believes that the actual decision has been made. It is simply too difficult to keep that type of decision secret for very long. Leaks happen.

Wouldnt you call what has happened lately leaks? I mean cmon you dont hear LG execs talking about every rumor in town, so I am guessing when he says "rumor" he means "I know something that you cant know right now."

[ryoohki]

Yup.. We saw Paramount coming for miles ahead LOL!

The most credible rumour is always the one you don't ear about..

[sparksj]

I honestly don't understand why all studios don't go dual fromat. Warner makes a high percent of it's HD disc profit from HD DVD sales. I can't see why any studio would want to limit their profit potential by cutting off a potential 40% customer base???

Maybe it's not all about money?

[GregBlu5]

Originally Posted by sparksj

I honestly don't understand why all studios don't go dual fromat. Warner makes a high percent of it's HD disc profit from HD DVD sales. I can't see why any studio would want to limit their profit potential by cutting off a potential 40% customer base???

Maybe it's not all about money?

Nope. It ain't.

[ikbradley]

Originally Posted by ryoohki

Yup.. We saw Paramount coming for miles ahead LOL!

The most credible rumour is always the one you don't ear about..

Exactly. I remember July being the mont of Blu bliss. Everyone was happy on the board, with optimism abound... THEN THE BRIBE.... DUN DUN DUN!

It was really out of left field and nothing had been indicated.

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by ryoohki

Yup.. We saw Paramount coming for miles ahead LOL!

The most credible rumour is always the one you don't ear about..

Exactly.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by sparksj

I honestly don't understand why all studios don't go dual fromat. Warner makes a high percent of it's HD disc profit from HD DVD sales. I can't see why any studio would want to limit their profit potential by cutting off a potential 40% customer base???

Maybe it's not all about money?

At this point they lose money on a lot of the releases. If the studios didn't make strategic decisions, new formats would never launch.

But, even if they were "leaving money on the table", clearly the HD DVD studios going after 2x - 3x their current sales makes more sense than the BD studios going after 33% - 50% more.

Gary

[phansson]

I think the lack of a formal denial is a good thing for Blu Ray. Warner has to know about this with the story in businessweek and The Wall Street Journal.

If it would have been a "rumor" I think that they would have squashed it quickly and decisively.

[sparksj]

I honestly think that nothing will be decided until Summer 08. Currently HD sales is just pocket change for these studios. They know the real money will come in the long run. As much as we would all like for them to hurry up and make a decision, they still have plenty of time to keep watching and see what happens.

Why bet on a horse right out of the gate, if you can wait and place your bet when he's 100 feet from the finish line.

[JasonS]

Originally Posted by sparksj

I honestly think that nothing will be decided until Summer 08. Currently HD sales is just pocket change for these studios. They know the real money will come in the long run. As much as we would all like for them to hurry up and make a decision, they still have plenty of time to keep watching and see what happens.

Why bet on a horse right out of the gate, if you can wait and place your bet when he's 100 feet from the finish line.

Because if you can single handedly decide the format war, then there is no risk in "betting" on either horse.

[sj001]

No, the sooner Warner jumps to BD, the sooner that mass adoption can occur, and those hundreds of thousands or more of people can jump aboard. Ending this war is the only way to make these numbers really jump up.

[rwduke]

Originally Posted by sj001

No, the sooner Warner jumps to BD, the sooner that mass adoption can occur, and those hundreds of thousands or more of people can jump aboard. Ending this war is the only way to make these numbers really jump up.

Absolutely correct. A co-worker just asked me about the format war. I told him about Warner possibly going Blu-Ray so the war may end soon. His reply "I'll buy as soon as there is a winner".

I'm sure he is not alone. The studios must realize they slowing adoption by letting this war continue.

[zipbags]

I know this has been mentioned. But, I find it hard to believe Warner is waiting to see what happens these weeks whether to go exclusive. Even if hd-dvd wins this week. That is only one week in 52. I believe the decision has been made and they are just waiting to go through the x-mas season and sell as much of the stock that has been produced and then will announce Q1. Any info they would get from these last few weeks is just confirmation of what they already know.

But, what the heck do I know.

[SpikesBluBlooded]

Originally Posted by sparksj

I honestly don't understand why all studios don't go dual fromat. Warner makes a high percent of it's HD disc profit from HD DVD sales. I can't see why any studio would want to limit their profit potential by cutting off a potential 40% customer base???

Maybe it's not all about money?

Well, clearly this has already started to be addressed, but I'm still going to add my 2 cents. First, when you throw out "Warner makes a high percent of it's HD disc profit from HD DVD sales" you had better be prepared to back it up. From what I've seen (as the Nielson numbers show weekly), Blu-ray titles are outselling HD DVD by a wide margin (we've seen it hundreds of times: 2:1 in the U.S., much higher overseas), so quotes like yours sounds a lot like FUD to many posters on this site. I'm sure I won't be the only one to point that out.

Second, there is no advantage to being neutral any longer. Early on in the war, absolutely, there was no clear winner, both formats were brand new, and you would have been able to leverage yourself for either format's success (as Warner is now in the position to take advantage of). But that was then. The two formats are hitting the main-stream consumer, and a good deal of them are waiting to see a clear-cut winner before deciding to adopt this new and relatively (compared to DVD) expensive format.

Thirdly, you have two completely seperate production costs. That's twice the labor to produce a HD movie then it is for a SD movie. Add to that little 'snafus' like the HP Gift Set disc mix-up, and the costs just go up, and consumer confidence goes down. And that's the last thing any company wants!

Neutrality will be the death of the HD format. Industry experts and insiders know it, and that is what we're all wanting to avoid.

[Crackbone]

I personally feel after observing the numbers for the last few weeks that HDM needs a winner to take it to the next level.

Warner might play it safe and hold on to neutrality, however, I have a really good gut feeling that by picking a winner, their sales on HDM would increase exponentially.

Warner will move when it makes sense to. It's become a pretty compelling case for BD. What it comes down to is sales projections after a single format vs sales projections remaining neutral.

I think we are reaching a saturation point with dual format. I think Warner either has or will be reaching the same conclusion shortly.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Crackbone

I personally feel after observing the numbers for the last few weeks that HDM needs a winner to take it to the next level.

Warner might play it safe and hold on to neutrality, however, I have a really good gut feeling that by picking a winner, their sales on HDM would increase exponentially.

Warner will move when it makes sense to. It's become a pretty compelling case for BD. What it comes down to is sales projections after a single format vs sales projections remaining neutral.

I think we are reaching a saturation point with dual format. I think Warner either has or will be reaching the same conclusion shortly.

I hope you're right.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...159#post415159

I wouldn't have a huge, blu circle around CES necessarily though.

[shug7272]

Originally Posted by ryoohki

Yup.. We saw Paramount coming for miles ahead LOL!

The most credible rumour is always the one you don't ear about..

Good God. When will the Paramount thing be put to bed? Let it go already. That was one occasion. Not to mention it was OBVIOUSLY a rush job due to the fact Blu Rays of Blades of Glory made it into the pipes. I know they press discs early but they dont send them out months in advance. Paramount was a rush job, that took insiders by surprise and it was confirmed to have cost MILLIONS just to make it happen. TWO TOTALLY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS. Thats like getting into a wreck with a eighteen wheeler and saying jeez when I hit that dog last week it didnt tear up my car like this... DUUHHH....Wonder why?