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Old 08-22-2007, 07:02 AM   #1
MouseRider MouseRider is offline
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Aug 2007
Default Is it all about the "Magic Number"?

Following all the recent news, it seems that the determination of the "victor" in this format war seems to be "who's going to hit the magic number first".

In an interview, Paramount's CTO basically said that the movie, $150 million aside, was because HD-DVD was going to be the cheaper format and cheaper means that it will be the winner (I'm over-simplifying and paraphrasing).

Forget the larger capacity, he doesn't need it.

BD-J? Too complicated, might have bugs, HDi is more than enough.

Maybe the Blu-ray camp maybe should consider taking a page out of Microsoft's playbook, log in a 4th quarter expense of a few million and sell BD players below cost of manufacture today for $199.
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Old 08-22-2007, 07:08 AM   #2
jee jee is offline
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it would be a hard sell.

third party manufacturers would be alienated of sony for example were to release blu-ray players below cost. Kinda like what is happening with toshiba and hd-dvd.

If this were the case, the BDA would have to subsidize the loss and even markup profit for these companys to meet price points needed to pull this off without alienating any blu-ray 3rd party supporters.
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Old 08-22-2007, 07:16 AM   #3
gand41f gand41f is offline
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No, it's not about the "magic number". It's about $150mil.

Since they are currently behind by a wide margin in sales, all the DUD camp can claim is that their numbers are going to go up.

It's just a talking point to justify the $150mil.

gandalf
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Old 08-22-2007, 09:02 AM   #4
scragham scragham is offline
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the magic number matters when HDTV penetration is widespread and you're starting to market to the mass-market.

we're not there yet.
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Old 08-22-2007, 09:17 AM   #5
mattym mattym is offline
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i thought the magic number was $150m
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Old 08-22-2007, 09:18 AM   #6
scragham scragham is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mattym View Post
i thought the magic number was $150m
that would certainly be a magic number for me.
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Old 08-22-2007, 09:18 AM   #7
NutsAboutPS3 NutsAboutPS3 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MouseRider View Post
In an interview, Paramount's CTO basically said that the movie, $150 million aside, was because HD-DVD was going to be the cheaper format and cheaper means that it will be the winner (I'm over-simplifying and paraphrasing).
He's simply making excuses to justify the decision. They would most likely have gone Blu-ray exclusive if it weren't for the $150m. It's just spin, he has to come up with some sort of reason for the move. HD DVD players are cheaper, so that is just something he can latch onto to justify a move that was actually made for other reasons. It's like the "attach rate" argument, they use it just because it's a figure they can spin as a benefit, not because they believe it really means anything.
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Old 08-22-2007, 01:44 PM   #8
statikcat statikcat is offline
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It is only a matter of time before they are both dirt cheap. Why is the focus of the player such a big deal? That is a one time purchase. You will end up spending way more in movies.
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Old 08-22-2007, 01:55 PM   #9
dialog_gvf dialog_gvf is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MouseRider View Post
Following all the recent news, it seems that the determination of the "victor" in this format war seems to be "who's going to hit the magic number first".
First, nobody knows what the "magic number" is anymore.

When this all started, everyone said it was $299, which is a tried and true number from the past. But, $299 came and went and the masses didn't move. So, now $199 was proposed.

The reality is that the magic number is probably not attainable. I believe it is $99 for mass adoption. And this is because the mass consumer was trained to expect to be nearly given a disc player by Chinese royalty theft players being allowed to pervade the marketplace.

Problem is, quite simply, a $99 player is not possible with the current royalty structure. Not just difficult. Impossible.

But, let's us assume $199 is the magic number. It is only one half the puzzle. The consumer also DEMANDS full studio support. Only early adopters and zealots play the game of fighting in the trenches for studio support. The mass consumer doesn't consider it a format until all the studios are backing it.

And, even with magic number priced players, and full studio support, there is the last reality that consumers will see $5 catalogue DVDs and $20 catalogue HD discs and wonder what the heck the studio heads are smoking (assuming they haven't purchased an EDTV or 768p panel which makes the quality advantage of HDM questionable).

Gary
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Old 08-22-2007, 01:56 PM   #10
joeorc joeorc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by statikcat View Post
It is only a matter of time before they are both dirt cheap. Why is the focus of the player such a big deal? That is a one time purchase. You will end up spending way more in movies.
QUITE true notice that they keep touting attach rates..how the prices of the players is the key..no its not its the disc's cost is the KEY and right now blu-ray has the cheaper costing DISC's due to non flipper stance by blu-ray. the longer this war drags on the more likely blu-ray will win.

because if HD DVD cannot remove blu-ray by the fact that blu-ray has 2 to 1 disc sales..now thats just counting MOVIES now take into account SOFTWARE SALES blu-ray has and will continue to sell more disc's and that is what matters. blu-ray holds more data..but yet it cost is the same as DVD9 for software... Microsoft FUD machine has been working over time for the past 2 years but yet its not going to work i give props to microsoft to keep trying.thats what is funny

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Old 08-22-2007, 02:29 PM   #11
maconomics maconomics is offline
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It's all about the $150,000,000 profits before consumer loyalty
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Old 08-22-2007, 11:08 PM   #12
Anthony P Anthony P is offline
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Quote:
Following all the recent news, it seems that the determination of the "victor" in this format war seems to be "who's going to hit the magic number first".

In an interview, Paramount's CTO basically said that the movie, $150 million aside, was because HD-DVD was going to be the cheaper format and cheaper means that it will be the winner (I'm over-simplifying and paraphrasing).

Forget the larger capacity, he doesn't need it.

BD-J? Too complicated, might have bugs, HDi is more than enough.

Maybe the Blu-ray camp maybe should consider taking a page out of Microsoft's playbook, log in a 4th quarter expense of a few million and sell BD players below cost of manufacture today for $199.
the 150M$ is illegal and if it is proven in an anti trust case both Paramount and the people that paid them would be in trouble. His whole BSing is there to try and make fake reasonable doubt.
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