'Super' Box Office Weekend 6/10 - 6/12

[Blu Titan]

Current Box Office Champ X-Men: First Class will try to withstand a strong challenge from J.J. Abrams' Super 8. Superhero movies usually suffer a +50% drop from the first to the second weekend. Assuming a strond hold (drop of only 40%), First class should take no more than $31M in its second weekend. Every Summer a movie comes along and becomes a "sleeper" hit, The Karate Kid 2010 comes to mind from last year. Some industry experts believe that Super 8 can become a box office hit, but it is a hard movie to gauge. Reviews have been mostly positive for Super 8 and there should be additional demand on Friday since kids will be out of school (at least in Miami ). Super 8 will have competition from another kid's movie Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer. Super 8 will come out on top with $35M, First Class $28M, and The Hangover II with $17M.


X-Men First Class


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Super 8

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Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer

judy.jpg


The Hangover Part II

hangover.jpg

[Foggy]

The f**k is Judy Moody???

[Mandalorian]

Super 8...no contest. I really hope X-Men does well, but it isn't looking good. Also, what the hell happened to Kung Fu Panda 2? I thought that was a guaranteed half a bil, but it hasn't even made it's budget over here.

[Chaotic]

1. X-Men $27M
2. Super 8 $22M
3. Kung Fu Panda 2 $18M
4. Hangover 2 $16M
5. Judy Moody $13M

[AKORIS]

I've been wrong so far every week--

all I'm gonna say is that SUPER 8 will be #1

[Blu Titan]

Top 7 for Monday:

1 X-MEN: FIRST CLASS: $5,452,193

2 THE HANGOVER PART II: $3,247,199

3 KUNG FU PANDA 2: $2,331,802

4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES: $1,857,198

5 BRIDESMAIDS: $1,517,880

6 THOR: $500,801

7 FAST FIVE: $346,735

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by Foggy

The f**k is Judy Moody???

A children's-book franchise heroine. As Warner now does one children's-book franchise every doldrum-parts-of-summer where no one will notice.
(Last year it was Ramona and Beezus, with Diary of a Wimpy Kid before it, and...what, "Kit Kittredge: An American Girl" before that, or was it another Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants movie, not counting Percy Jackson?)

If you had KIDS, you'd know this. (I don't, but I work in children's books, and don't come off sounding like an illiterate idiot.)

[Blu Titan]

Super 8 is tracking between $25M - $29M, but only has a $50M budget to overcome.


super.jpg

Trying to debunk buzz in Hollywood that pre-release tracking is soft for J.J. Abrams' Super 8, Paramount says the $50 million-budgeted movie doesn't need a big opening weekend because it cost far less than a big studio tentpole.

Paramount has its job cut out for it in managing expectations.

Super 8, opening in theaters Friday, is one of the summer's more high-profile projects because of Abrams and Steven Spielberg, who produced the sci-fi alien pic, set in the late 1970s in a small Ohio town.

However, the studio has refrained from showing the creature at the center of the film in trailers or its ad campaign, hoping to build interest in the film among those curious to see its secret revealed. A similar strategy worked well with the Abrams-produced Cloverfield in 2008, but some are questioning whether more should have been shown with Super 8.

Studios typically call reporters late in the week to do box office setup, but Paramount responded to THR's questions early this week because of industry chatter that the film would not open on par with recent summer releases like X-Men: First Class or Thor and that it is tracking behind Warner Bros.' Green Lantern, which doesn't open until June 17.

The chatter is correct: Paramount estimates that Super 8 should gross $25 million to $30 million in its domestic debut. However, Paramount argues that other summer films cost three or four times more to make than Super 8; hence, Super 8 doesn't need to gross as much to be in the clear financially.

And it's a misconception to think that Super 8 will play to young moviegoers, at least initially, according to Paramount.

Super 8 -- Abrams' homage to the films of his childhood, a la Spielberg -- is tracking best among moviegoers over age 30, the demo that remembers such films as Spielberg's E.T: The Extra-Terrestrial or Close Encounters of the Third Kind.

As strange as it might seem, the two comps Paramount is using to gauge the film's success are True Grit and Universal's Bridesmaids.

Paramount's True Grit, which was a hit first among older adults, and then broadened out, opened to $24.8 million in December.

More recently, Bridesmaids, which also skewed older in its debut, grossed $26.2 million in its domestic launch (it's gone on to be a sleeper hit, grossing $107.2 million through Sunday). The R-rated female comedy cost $32 million to produce...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...-modest-195269

[Dragon Lee]

My prediction for this weekend:
1. Super 8 - $45-$55 million
2. X-Men - $30-$35 million

[Blu Titan]

I think Super 8 will be picking up interest all the way through the weekend. Abrams directing and Spielberg producing guarantees ticket sales and the reviews have been positive.

[Diesel]

I voted X-Men...but it could just as easily be Super 8. Last I read it was tracking low...not sure if that's changed or not as I haven't kept up with this movie.


The thing with Super 8 is...hardly anyone knows what the hell it is even about because of the secrecy in the marketing. If there's a pay off to the secrecy, it could have strong word of mouth and legs....if the veil is lifted and the audience doesn't like what they see, then....

[Walts Ghost]

Super 8
X-Men
Hangover 2
Kung Fu Panda 2





Judy Moody -WTF is this?! I've never even heard of it.

[Diesel]

Originally Posted by Walts Ghost

Super 8
X-Men






Judy Moody -WTF is this?! I've never even heard of it.

Because you probably don't watch Nick or Disney. I have a little cousin who wants to see it...besides that I'd be just as as you guys

[Walts Ghost]

Originally Posted by Diesel

Because you probably don't watch Nick or Disney. I have a little cousin who wants to see it...besides that I'd be just as as you guys

Haha yeah, but usually I've at least seen a TV spot of trailer or poster somewhere.....but nothing on this. I'm pretty sure this is going to tank.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Diesel

Because you probably don't watch Nick or Disney. I have a little cousin who wants to see it...besides that I'd be just as as you guys

Yeah, they play the trailers on Nick and Disney all the time...my son has no interest because "its too girly" . However, don't be surprised if it does well at the box office with the Bieber crowd.

[Walts Ghost]

I actually just saw a TV spot and ugh...That looks bad...Really, really bad. And I usually don't mind kids movies.

[Aerodude73]

Originally Posted by Walts Ghost

Super 8
X-Men
Hangover 2
Kung Fu Panda 2


Judy Moody -WTF is this?! I've never even heard of it.

Agreed with everything you wrote buddy - same order of films & I've never heard of Judy Moody either. If that's mainly due it being on Nick or Disney channels, then so be it. But wouldn't they have a Couple trailers on Network TV the Week it opens, or is their marketing budget just $57 ?

SUPER 8 - $38M
X-MEN - $30M
HANGOVER 2 - $24M
KFP 2 - $12M

[Bishop_99]

I'll go for Super 8 but I'm really up in the air with how much can it open with. Diesel is right about Super 8 and if it pans out that way, I can see it having great holds week after week, just not a huge first week. I just don't see the level of hype around it as I did with Cloverfield, maybe I haven't been paying attention, but I'll be surprised if it can open as big as Cloverfield did. It will easily have better legs than Cloverfield so it should do well in the long run.

[Blu Titan]

POTC: On Stranger Tides' box office has regressed in the US, but that is not the case overseas. The movie is; in fact, a huge hit due to the appeal of Penelope Cruz and Johnny Deep. Expect Stranger Tides to remain #1 overseas for the upcoming weekend....ahoy !

Raking in an estimated $69.4 million, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides slowed 45 percent from last weekend, but its foreign haul climbed to $600.4 million. On the all-time foreign gross chart, the supernatural swashbuckler ranked 16th, and it won't be long before On Stranger Tides exceeds the final grosses of Dead Man's Chest ($642.9 million) and At World's End ($654 million) and lands in the Top Ten. On Stranger Tides' top three single markets were Japan ($61.5 million), Russia ($57.1 million) and China ($53 million). Add in its domestic gross ($190.3 million), and the movie's worldwide take stood at $790.7 million, ranking 31st on the all-time worldwide gross chart.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3180&p=.htm

[Blu Titan]

From Nikki's site:

Super 8 on track for $11 million Friday and $30 million weekend...