Blu-ray Disc Players Lead HD DVD 2:1

[Go Blu]

Here is a great article from Hettrick over at Hollywood In High Def.
Explains how people are being misled by HD DUD Standalone sales.

Blu-ray Disc Players Lead HD DVD 2:1

I guess as long as forums, bloggers, media and consumers are gullible enough, HD DVD promotion people will keep capitalizing on that by putting out these ridiculous announcements every 90 days or so about how HD DVD players are outselling Blu-ray players.
The European HD DVD Promotions Group did this in mid-July and they were hammered by myself and others (see July 12 Blog: "My Crumbs..."). Now the American team is doing the same thing, trumpeting NPD's report showing HD DVD stand-alone players with a 53% share of the market in September.
As long as media keeps creating headlines of their greatly misleading claims, why shouldn't they keep doing it?

Once again, for anyone responsible enough to care to print the actual numbers, simply measuring stand-alone players is enormously misleading. (And by the way, even in that game, Toshiba should have mounted a sizable lead in the category months ago since it has been selling players for at least $200 less than Blu-ray players all year -- they should be embarassed that it took them this long to eke out a tiny lead even in this single category.)

The only measure that should really matter is the overall number of Blu-ray capable players of any sort, and HD DVD capable players of any sort in the market. (Actually, the overall numbers are still so tiny compared to DVD that the only thing that should matter is the combined number of homes with hi-def disc players of either format, but as long as HD DVD continues to put out press releases trumpeting their 53% portion in September of a tiny slice of a small pie, I feel compelled to address the misleading data.)

There are about 120,000 HD DVD stand-alone players in the North American market, according to NPD. If you add the entire base of HD DVD drives for the Xbox 360, that number grows to about 320,000. (I still can't believe anyone is bragging about such tiny numbers -- there are about 90 MILLION DVD homes. A number like 320,000 gets your show canceled on the Oxygen network!)

The number of combined homes with Blu-ray stand-alone players and PS3 game machines that play Blu-ray Discs: 2 million! That's 84% of the overall hi-def disc player market, not even counting computer drives, which would surely tilt it even more in favor of Blu-ray.

That's not even a race. A 7-1 margin like that makes HD DVD an extremely dark horse. And that's even considering that PS3 machines didn't gain anywhere near the early traction that was hoped. Watch what happens if PS3 sales pick up steam as anticapted over the next few months, and as Blu-ray stand-alone player prices drop even further.

Once again, there is no reason not to include PS3 numbers in the mix because that was a big factor in the whole Blu-ray launch strategy, and that is a big reason why the vast majority of consumer electronics companies and studios favor Blu-ray, because it clearly gets Blu-ray an instantly and far greater installed base of Blu-ray capable players in the market.

Now, in order not to be misleading, we all know that not every owner of a PS3 machine uses it to play Blu-ray movies. (It's still better to have all those Blu-ray capable machines in those extra 1.5 million homes compared to zero additional homes with HD DVD-capable machines.)

Sony's own research based on results from 5,000 PS3 owners who responded to the survey in May shows that 83% of PS3 owners play movies in their PS3 machines occasionally or frequently and each respondent owns an average of 4.5 Blu-ray movies. So we could say that 1.5 mil. of the 1.8 mil. PS3 owners use their machines for Blu-ray movies, making the lead over HD DVD player owners almost 5-1.

But don't even use that very strong number.

Take the most conservative number out there: NPD says their recent research shows just 29% of PS3 owners regularly use their PS3 for playing movies. OK, so 522,000 of PS3 owners use their machine for playing Blu-ray movies.

That's a total of about 640,000 machines and homes playing Blu-ray movies with regularity.

That's still a huge 2-1 lead over the number of HD DVD homes, despite HD DVD's huge price advantage.

Case closed (again).

Now, let's get back to focusing on the most beneficial message for the overall market: the fact that about 2.3 million homes have hi-def disc players, a number that continues to grow and is expected to grow even faster over the next 3 months. That's a reasonably solid starting base and cause for cautious optimism about the future of this market in general, and should provide incentive for CE companies and studios to start serious spending of marketing dollars.

[lokus]

Excellent article and I agree wholeheartedly. The PS3 and Xbox Add-on should be factored in to the count of movie players regardless of how they are considered gaming systems. Scott makes valid points and hits the nail on the head. It is going to be a great holiday season!

[SS316SRV]

Originally Posted by lokus

Excellent article and I agree wholeheartedly. The PS3 and Xbox Add-on should be factored in to the count of movie players regardless of how they are considered gaming systems. Scott makes valid points and hits the nail on the head. It is going to be a great holiday season!

The 360 Add-on is counted by HD DVD, isn't it. HD DVD is in a sadder state than they want to admit.

[JAGUAR1977]

Clear, understandable, factual.

That means he'll be slated by HD-DVD fanboys for daring to question HD-DVD's figures.

[lokus]

I don't even understand why ALL the machines that can play a certain format are not included in the count. That doesn't make too much sense to me. I consider my PS3 to be my standalone movie player because I don't really play games. I just consider it a Blu-ray format player that happens to do multiple things (movies, games, pictures, audio, internet, etc).

[DealsR4theDevil]

Same here, I play the occasional game but I bought it for movies.

[Stundra]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

Clear, understandable, factual.

That means he'll be slated by HD-DVD fanboys for daring to question HD-DVD's figures.

So there should be soon corresponding movie sales rates -> 85% Blu to 15% Red....

[Go Blu]

Exactly
This is the only way HD-DUD can spin the numbers to their favor. by claiming that PS3's don't count because 100% of buyers don't use it for movies. However you cannot discount that either because even if 20-30% do use it that pretty significant if your talking about 2 million+ units.

Their only hope is propaganda and it IS working for them. You see it everywhere you look, they claim more content, better quality, cheaper players and more units sold. It's all twisted numbers and people are buying it. Sad but true.

Come on BDA step it up a notch. We have the the technical facts to dis-credit all of their propaganda. The consumer needs to be made aware.

[Jimbo976]

Originally Posted by Go Blu

There are about 120,000 HD DVD stand-alone players in the North American market, according to NPD. If you add the entire base of HD DVD drives for the Xbox 360, that number grows to about 320,000.

So the NPD numbers actually said this? That is interesting to know if true.

[Disturbed350z]

not counting the ps3 is rediculous
I work at a Best Buy in Texas.

I can't even remember the number of ps3's I've sold to people looking for a high definition or blu-ray player. Either cause they like the fact that they could also game with it...or that they have kids or grandkids that would use it as much as they would.
I get someone really excited about blu-ray...than they here for the same price as the lowest standalones they can get a gamesystem aswell....of course they go for the ps3 and not the standalone. its a given

[lokus]

Originally Posted by Disturbed350z

not counting the ps3 is rediculous
I work at a Best Buy in Texas.

I can't even remember the number of ps3's I've sold to people looking for a high definition or blu-ray player. Either cause they like the fact that they could also game with it...or that they have kids or grandkids that would use it as much as they would.
I get someone really excited about blu-ray...than they here for the same price as the lowest standalones they can get a gamesystem aswell....of course they go for the ps3 and not the standalone. its a given

That sounds like excellent news. It seems that people see extra value in purchasing a machine that is slightly more expensive than standalone units because they feel they are getting something else besides just a movie player. They are getting more for their money. It is a nice way to look at it.

[Branden]

Originally Posted by lokus

I don't even understand why ALL the machines that can play a certain format are not included in the count.

toshy players and 360 addons don't have any other use than playing movies, which is why it is a reasonable assumption that near 100% of them are used for hd-dvd. but nobody is quite sure what percentage of PS3 are being used for bd movies, after all it IS primarily a gaming console.

so yes, it is misleading for hd-dvd to count 0% of PS3, but it would be just as misleading if we were to count 100%. and especially now that we're already winning the 'war' there's really no reason for us to stoop to the same number-fudging tactics that they are.

let's be conservative in our estimates and take the 29%, it still gives us a 2:1 player sales ratio that is inline with the 2:1 disc sales ratio.

[SNAP]

If 360 is counted then PS3 must be counted.......even if it's used a paperweight or whatever, it's STILL a DVD player.

7 to 1, I'll take those odds anyday.

HD is really starting to spin way too much for my liking.

Originally Posted by SS316SRV

The 360 Add-on is counted by HD DVD, isn't it. HD DVD is in a sadder state than they want to admit.

[mattym]

how many standalones are replacements for old mk1 duff-buckets or upgrading though, thats a question we shall never know.

[Go Blu]

I bet Tosh doesn't announce that their 51Gig disc will NOT work on any existing player until after the holidays. That wouldn't be good propaganda.

I guess there will be allot of disappointed people when they find out that their entire installed base owns obsolete equipment. They were so adamant that 30 was more than enough!

Yeah HD-DUD is superior!.......for me to poop on!

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by Stundra

So there should be soon corresponding movie sales rates -> 85% Blu to 15% Red....

No, because you will see only around 500k PS3's are used regularly for Blu-ray, like a standalone, so 2-1+ is correct.

In Europe were HD-DVD didn't have a head start the figure is 4-1.

[Bluray_ne1]

Originally Posted by Go Blu

Here is a great article from Hettrick over at Hollywood In High Def.
Explains how people are being misled by HD DUD Standalone sales.


The number of combined homes with Blu-ray stand-alone players and PS3 game machines that play Blu-ray Discs: 2 million! That's 84% of the overall hi-def disc player market, not even counting computer drives, which would surely tilt it even more in favor of Blu-ray.

That's not even a race. A 7-1 margin like that makes HD DVD an extremely dark horse. And that's even considering that PS3 machines didn't gain anywhere near the early traction that was hoped. Watch what happens if PS3 sales pick up steam as anticapted over the next few months, and as Blu-ray stand-alone player prices drop even further.

[/SIZE]

The PS3 has been bashed by the nay-sayers because it doesn't have the game library that the Xbox 360 does, and yet they account for the majority of Blu-Ray players in America alone. Who says only gamers by PS3?

[SNAP]

They claim that problems could arise on 1st gen player not 2nd & 3rd.