Will 2015 be the Biggest Year for Film Ever?

[Buddy Ackerman]

EDIT - at the time of starting this thread there were films either 'confirmed' or rumoured for 2015 - Finding Dory, Avatar 2, Independence Day 2, Pirates 5 - that were strong parts of my hypothesis. With some of these moved to 2016 it leaves 2015 as merely a very good year for blobkbuster hits rather than the ultimate year it looked to be at one point. The below post has been constantly revised to take out films that had a 2015 release date but ended up being moved.

Apparently 2012 was the highest-grossing year for film - at least domestically. I can't find a comparable figure for worldwide figures but with four films take over a billion dollars each at the box office (a record) it's more than likely the worldwide box office for last year hovers around the top of the chart as well.

It's unlikely that 2013 will beat last year - things are doing well (we're currently in a record-breaking June for example) but Iron Man 3 stands as the only billion dollar films so far and, looking ahead, the only two films probable to join him are The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (EDIT: Despicable Me 2 stands a slim chance as well). Similarly, 2014 has some big films due - Captain America: The Winter Soldier, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Transformers 4 (somehow not yet titled Trans4mers), Interstellar, The Hunger Games; Mockingjay Part 1 and The Hobbit: There and Back Again, along with plenty of other solid-to-great performers (e.g. X-Men: Days of Future Past, Guardians of the Galaxy and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes) but its doubtful it has enough to beat 2012.

2015 however...

First of all, look what we have confirmed. The biggest two will almost certainly be Avengers: Age of Ultron and Star Wars: Episode VII. Is there any reason not to believe these two will cross a billion each? Then there's Pirates of the Caribbean 5 and Finding Dory. (EDIT: Pirates and Finding Dory have now both been moved to 2016). And the year will draw to a close with The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2. Of course, at this point it's hard to fully determine how well the franchise will hold up but considering how well the first did and using Twilight as an example of franchise growth (not to mention how well Potter ended with its final chapter) then I'd be shocked is this wasn't huge. EDIT: And, now announce, the Superman/Batman team-up film, coming off the Dark Knight trilogy and a close-to-$700m Man of Steel. Sure, it won't be the Bale/Nolan Batman but he's still a popular enough character for audiences to flock to this, especially given the chance to see probably the two most iconic comic book heores on screen together. And having Batman in there will help distract from some of the reservations some had about Man of Steel. If that can do $650m on its own then this one is set to be massive

Unconfirmed but likely for 2015? Two other huge ones - Bond 24 is rumoured for 2015/2016 but, given the success of Skyfall, I'm sure MGM and Sony would welcome it sooner rather than later and Craig isn't getting any younger and has Bond 25 to go afterwards. Skyfall may turn out to be lightning in a bottle - who could have thought it would be the second highest-grossing film in a year containing The Hobbit and The Dark Knight Rises? - but the next Bond film will get a huge boost from it and, should Mendes reteam with Craig, then a similar success isn't off the table (EDIT: Bond 24 with Mendes directing has now been confirmed for 2015). And then there's the always fluid Avatar 2. Last we heard it's aiming for 2015 and, whilst we can debate how 'good' Avatar was, $2.8b speaks for itself. (EDIT: scrub Avatar off the list - we won't be seeing it until 2016). EDIT: there are also rumours now of Star Trek 3 getting a 2015 release, which sounds unlikely as they'll surely hold it over for Trek's 50th anniversary in 2016.

Then we have riskier blockbusters - the old franchises. Terminator 5 at this point may seem a tired and flagging franchise but with a fresh spin on it (if the alleged rumours of it taking place in the past are true) then a strong script and the return of Arnie might count for something. And the fourth Jurassic Park film Jurassic World may not seem a huge contender but don't forget the first film took the Biggest Film of All Time crown from E.T. and kept it until Titanic. There's will have been 14 years between JPIII and the new one and it's hard to know whether this will work in its favour or against it but that's a whole new generation of kids who will happily watch dinosaurs on the big screen. And then there's Independence Day 2 EDIT: which has now been moved to 2016.

Then there are plenty of smaller blockbusters that could break out - Ant-Man is coming three months after Avengers and, though an oddity of the Marvel canon, should do well riding off the coat-tails of it. Imagine if Marvel had had a film ready to go late last last with Avengers fever-pitch still going strong? The Fantastic 4 will have an uphill battle, coming off two films that are looked down upon, but they're popular characters and is at least out of the summer minefield. Ted 2 will be coming off a $550m haul for the first and an audience that has continued to appreciate the film through home media (and is sensibly avoiding the summer with an Easter opening) and should see a similar take. Mission: Impossible 5 will depend on it getting the same sort of word-of-mouth that M:I-4 did but the franchise earned a lot of audience goodwill and interest with that one - goodwill that should carry over to Tomorrowland, Brad Bird's follow-up to M:I-4 - it won't have the brand recognition but it will have Clooney and a huge Disney promotional push behind it. Assassin's Creed will have to overcome the video game stigma but casting Michael Fassbender gives it a step up on the kudos ladder. Warcraft shares that same stigma but is obviously a huge deal to a lot of people and the company behind the film have taken a long time to get it to a point where they feel is right so that, plus Duncan Moon, could make for a good film that could hit well with the target audience. Snow White and the Hunstmen 2 has a chance of following up its predecessor's success. Tin-Tin 2 depends on getting made and people caring but the first came close to $400m and beat Captain America, X-Men: First Class and Bridesmaids that year. And we also have the new Dan Brown adaptation Inferno with Hanks and Howard back - Angels and Demons may have been a slight step down from Da Vinci Code ($485m vs. 758m worldwide) but it's still a very successful franchise.

And, a couple of crossover films aside, that's not even considering the family films - Pixar may have lost Finding Dory but it also has Inside Out for the summer, a film with an original hook and without a previous character in sight which should play well with the anti-Pixar-sequel critics. They'll be spoiled with a second original Pixar film at the end of the year with The Good Dinosaur making it's delayed debut, though that may carry be baggage of its "troubled" production (not that those sort of issues stopped Toy Story 2, Ratatouille or Brave been successes). And then there are The Smurfs 3, Kung-Fu Panda 3, The Penguins of Madagascar and Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 which may not do so well with the critics but are all strong franchises, with B.O.O angling to be the next Dreamworks gfranchise starter. And Disney's live-action version of Cinderella is in the same March slot as Alice in Wonderland and Oz: The Great and Powerful and could be a similar hit (though more likely closer to Oz than Alice). Speaking of which, Alice in Wonderland 2 is rumoured for 2015 now it has a director (and Depp is free from doing Pirates that year) and, although it is extremely unlikely to match the $1b gross of the first thanks to the loss of Burton, Depp's dimming light and the lack of 3D novelty that the former thrived on, it should still pack a decent wallop at the box office.

Bear in mind we still have plenty of time to go. there are still loads of films that will be announced between now and their 2015 release and, while not all of them will be Star Wars and Avengers-type films, there's still plenty of room for all of those sequels to recent hits (Prometheus 2, American Pie 5, The Bourne Whatever) and others to be announced.

So what do you think? Will it be blockbuster overkill, with the huge films end up drowning out the smaller ones? Will old-fashioned franchises like Terminator 5 and Jurassic Park World be killed by the fashionable likes of Avengers 2 and Batman Vs. Superman? Or will there be enough of an audience to go round for all? Will the press just concentrate on the Superhero team-up battle of Avengers 2 vs. Batman/Superman? Personally I think 2015 has a very strong chance at besting 2012 as the biggest year at the box office ever and should be a huge boom for the industry and possibly the year where the top five of the year - likely to be Star Wars, Avengers 2, Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt. 2, Bond 24 with Superman Vs. Batman - will all hit $1b worldwide.

(A quick note - all of this talk of Biggest Year Ever is obviously ignoring inflation, though I'd be interested in how it measured up. I hope it's also clear that I'm not equating money with quality because, again, Pirates 5).

[Dispatch Ninja]

It'll no doubt be a big money year, but nothing in 2015 that's been mentioned so far doesn't really interest me at all, besides mos 2 and bond but that's just speculation.

[Taipan]

Thanks for the thread. There looks to be nothing original in all of those films; just a bunch of sequels and continuations from previous franchises.

I'm so tired of POTC!

[Buddy Ackerman]

Originally Posted by Taipan

Thanks for the thread. There looks to be nothing original in all of those films; just a bunch of sequels and continuations from previous franchises.

I'm so tired of POTC!

I agree about POTC - the last one was just so uninspired and dull. But audiences still love it.

I agree that the above is almost all sequels but that's what makes it easy to predict as a massive year as there is a barometer of success to judge them against. I'm sure there'll be plenty of original films announced as we get closer to 2015 itself but, for the time being, getting the tentpole dates is important for the studios trying to protect their franchises so franchise pictures is what we currently have.

[Foggy]

2015 is looking so packed that I believe one of these films is going to fall, and it has to be one of Disney, they can't have all 4 big hitters, most likely it'll be Pirates 5, although I'm not quite convinced that the world is really all that hyped up for a new Star Wars trilogy yet.

I don't know, I've just got a bad feeling with all this over saturation, personal predictions for 2015:

• The Avengers 2 won't do as well as the first film, but will still make it to a billion.
• Star Wars Episode VII will probably be the highest grossing film of the year. The film will also have mixed reviews.
• Assassin's Creed will get delayed and/or have production problems.
• Independence Day 2 will bomb.

[Buddy Ackerman]

I mostly agree with you, Foggy, though I don't think Disney four big ones all being under their corporate umbrella necessarily means one will flop, especially as three of them are being made and released through sub-companies. There's no logical reason why they "can't" have four big-hitters as long as the audience is there. But, out of the four, I agree Pirates is the most likely to under perform. I question whether it will hit a billion but, as I say above, we all thought audience fatigue had hit after the rubbish Prates 3 and it's not like Pirates 4 had stellar reviews to pique people's interest - yet it went huge. And I don't think circumstances are different enough for Pirates 5 to do much different.

I also think the hype for Star Wars amongst the general public is as big as it could be - they may not be talking about it in day to day lives like us nerds on the internet but, out there in the real world, showbiz sites and reports carry the main stories about returning stars, etc. That's as hyped up as most people will get for a film that's still two years away - they didn't really 'care' about the prequel trilogy at that point either (though maybe a bit more thanks to the original trilogy getting its big 20th anniversary re-release). Come the time I can see it being close to Phantom Menace-level hype (though hopefully not quality) which was huge.

Sadly I also agree about Independence Day 2 but, as someone who was 13 when the first one came out and so loved it, I hope I'm wrong. Back in 1996 that was a hell of an experience at the cinema, cheese and logic-leaps aside, and I'd love it to happen again. I just realise the chances of that happening are unlikely.

[cinemaphile]

Yes, 2015 is shaping up to be a gigantic year for blockbuster entertainment. I may have to separate from my wife for a year just to have enough time to see them all. (Don't worry, I'll come back in 2016)

Originally Posted by Dispatch Ninja

It'll no doubt be a big money year, but nothing in 2015 that's been mentioned so far doesn't really interest me at all, besides mos 2 and bond but that's just speculation.

if nothing doesn't interest you, does that mean they all interest you?

Originally Posted by Taipan

Thanks for the thread. There looks to be nothing original in all of those films; just a bunch of sequels and continuations from previous franchises.

That's just because you don't hear about original movies this far out. Only follow-ups to big hits and franchises get announced so far in advance and covered in the media. The original stuff sneaks up on you and you hear about it closer to its release. There will surely be tons of original stuff as well, both blockbuster-style and serious dramas or indies.

[Scottie]

As was previously stated, it will be a big movie year. However, nothing coming out really interests me.

I'm not a big fan of summer blockbusters nor am I a fan of overly hyped sequels.

[King Troll]

New star wars is all I need

[Britbuffguy]

It will be the BEST year since 1984!

[Dispatch Ninja]

Originally Posted by cinemaphile

if nothing doesn't interest you, does that mean they all interest you?

*none of the movies mentioned so far interest me*

[Taipan]

Originally Posted by cinemaphile

That's just because you don't hear about original movies this far out. Only follow-ups to big hits and franchises get announced so far in advance and covered in the media. The original stuff sneaks up on you and you hear about it closer to its release. There will surely be tons of original stuff as well, both blockbuster-style and serious dramas or indies.

I realize that. I was merely commenting oh his op, which shows all of that. There are always unique films in every calendar year.

[Canada]

yes 3D's higher ticket prices, I when people were comparing the sales of The Avengers vs The Dark Knight Rises.

[MediaMalable]

Star Wars alone is going to be one of the biggest movie events of this whole era.

[remake]

I hope 3-D is dead by then.

[Al_The_Strange]

2015 does look crazy, but I notice everything is a sequel. I am naturally excited for such things as Avengers 2, ID4 2, Star Wars 7, etc, but anybody not invested in any of these franchises will probably think that year will suck. I'm starting to wonder how many of these films will actually bomb.

[Infernal King]

Originally Posted by Al_The_Strange

2015 does look crazy, but I notice everything is a sequel. I am naturally excited for such things as Avengers 2, ID4 2, Star Wars 7, etc, but anybody not invested in any of these franchises will probably think that year will suck. I'm starting to wonder how many of these films will actually bomb.

I hope a lot of them bomb because I'm so tired of the mega-blockbuster, colossal budget, franchise films.

[jamesdevil]

I hope this is the tipping point that changes distribution and allows different types of films to get made. I don't think people are going to want to support all of these films and some or many will fall short of the expectations.

[Infernal King]

Originally Posted by jamesdevil

I hope this is the tipping point that changes distribution and allows different types of films to get made. I don't think people are going to want to support all of these films and some or many will fall short of the expectations.

I hope so too. Have you noticed how the mid-budget film is disappearing? Kind of like America's middle class.

[RyanPom]

2016 is gonna be real boring.