Where do you see Blu-ray & HD DVD a year from now? - Blu-ray Forum

canerzi · 11-16-2007, 09:01 AM

Okay most of us want to see blu crush hd-dvd and become the only hd format, but thinking realistically, what do you think we'll be talking about a year from now? Considering:

- One, two or more studios can change sides, go exclusive or neutral (most likely candidates being universal and WB). I can not imagine WB going HD exclusive however, since it really does not make any sense. They repeatedly said that it is difficult to take an exclusivity decision because it means giving up a considerable revenue from the other format. So if they make any move, it should be "to go blu". (I actually do not understand WB's logic. If they were to go blu exclusive, this would practically end the format war, and the revenues they would be getting from BD sales would surpass the sum of hd+blu revenue.

- Prices
- PS3's success
- Microsoft's involvement

Or of course HD media may become a niche totally due to format war(most people do not notice the difference between SD and HD as it is). What do you think?

Iron Man · 11-16-2007, 09:18 AM

I think a decision from Warner to go exclusive will make a big difference in this war. If they choose Blu-ray then HD-DVD will have no change to keep up with Blu-ray in this war and the gap between Blu-ray and HD-DVD will widen fast. If they choose HD-DVD then it's unlikely that HD-DVD will ever leave the market.

Hopefully consumers will have several new and cheaper stand alone Blu-ray players to choose from within the next 6 month, forinstance from Funai and Daewoo.

blitz6speed · 11-16-2007, 09:29 AM

Warner IS being forced to decide by end of february. It is not their choice, there is an external contract that is to be renewed, and part of that contract is to pick a side or the contract will not be renewed. So it is GOING to happen. Just keep buying warner titles, thats all we can do at this point.

Iron Man · 11-16-2007, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

there is an external contract that is to be renewed, and part of that contract is to pick a side or the contract will not be renewed.

Who is part of this contract?

canerzi · 11-16-2007, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Warner IS being forced to decide by end of february. It is not their choice, there is an external contract that is to be renewed, and part of that contract is to pick a side or the contract will not be renewed. So it is GOING to happen. Just keep buying warner titles, thats all we can do at this point.

Is this a rumor or a fact?

blitz6speed · 11-16-2007, 10:21 AM

I cannot tell you who told me, but it is a insider on the deep inside i met offline in person. Im not forcing you guys to believe me, im just relaying what ive been told and considering who the person who told me works for, i believe it.

monkyman · 11-16-2007, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Warner IS being forced to decide by end of february. It is not their choice, there is an external contract that is to be renewed, and part of that contract is to pick a side or the contract will not be renewed. So it is GOING to happen. Just keep buying warner titles, thats all we can do at this point.

Can you explain who or how they are being FORCED?

Iron Man · 11-16-2007, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Im not forcing you guys to believe me, im just relaying what ive been told and considering who the person who told me works for, i believe it.

fair enough, it's going to be interesting to see what happens

skc087 · 11-16-2007, 11:03 AM

I think we will be at the same place we are now. Bluray will be winning about 2-1 like now. This is for 2 reasons. My first reason is because a ton of people bought the A2 Panasonic HD DVD player in the past month which was just $100 with 5 free HD DVDs. And they are going to have the same sale sometime this holiday season. Probably after thanksgiving. My second reason is that even though they dropped the prices of the PS3, adults dont want to deal with that. They want to deal with a basic BLURAY player that they can put in the living room and not have to worry about anything else. And the cheapest BLURAY player right now is like $450. Which is the best I have seen, I am sure you can get a better deal online but still. People would rather spend $100-$200 for the Panasonic HD player instead of the $450 for a BLURAY. Plus you have to remember that most people are ignorant. Example: I was at BB the day Transformers came out on HD 10/16 I believe and someone was buying a Transformers HD DVD and he didn't even know that he needed a HD DVD player and a HD DVD TV. He was like "I have been waiting for this to come out for so long.....I just got a new HD dvd upcoversion player for $100."

I do have one question though. I support both both Bluray and HD and do we really want the war to end? I mean, like when Transformers came out on HD, there was a huge bluray sale. Like $20 for 2 at Frys, Circuit City, BB, other places. Or when Spider-man Trilogy came out on Bluray, they had a huge sale for HD that week. Dont we kinda want these people to keep competing so we get better deals? I know it sounds stupid but, I woud rather have 2 companies batteling each other for my $ vs. one company releasing a movie and them charging $35-$40 for it.

Thats my lame little opinion! Let me know what you think.

horseflesh · 11-16-2007, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

I cannot tell you who told me, but it is a insider on the deep inside i met offline in person. Im not forcing you guys to believe me, im just relaying what ive been told and considering who the person who told me works for, i believe it.

Give us a clue!!

Iron Man · 11-16-2007, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skc087

a ton of people bought the A2 Panasonic HD DVD player

do we really want the war to end? it.

Mainstrem adoption is out of the question as long as the war continues and thats a very big problem. I think we have reached the point where it will be cheaper for everybody without the war so that we can take advantage of economies of scale.

canerzi · 11-16-2007, 11:25 AM

I think "having one and clear winner" looks really a far fetched goal nowadays. And I think we should definitely want the war to end because otherwise the hd video will not be a mass market product and we'll be waiting for the next best thing for some time. In addition, wishing that the format war goes and on for the "benefits" the competition brings to the customer is not very logical. The Blu-ray discs are not very expensive as it is, and if it were to win the war and reach higher sales, I'm sure it would drop to the level of current dvd movie prices. Deals are not such a major factor for me, as a 1 or 2 $ price drop overall in BD movies would be a better outcome.

To be honest, I'm not a fanatic BD supporter. If there was only hd-dvd, I could and would live with it and still be able my favorite movies in HD. But there is Blu-ray, and although its advantages are not that significant, still it does not make sense to choose the lesser format. And more importantly, I've already selected my side and invested in Blu discs (as most people here did) and do not want my money wasted in case hd-dvd becomes the new standard.

As I said in the beginning, the best possible outcome as of now seems to me that all studios go neutral and remain so for 5-6 years at least. I'm not sure if it is realistic, but it sure seems more so than a single format where all studios release their movies.

11-16-2007, 09:01 AM	#1
canerzi Member Member since:Sep 2007	Where do you see Blu-ray & HD DVD a year from now? Okay most of us want to see blu crush hd-dvd and become the only hd format, but thinking realistically, what do you think we'll be talking about a year from now? Considering: - One, two or more studios can change sides, go exclusive or neutral (most likely candidates being universal and WB). I can not imagine WB going HD exclusive however, since it really does not make any sense. They repeatedly said that it is difficult to take an exclusivity decision because it means giving up a considerable revenue from the other format. So if they make any move, it should be "to go blu". (I actually do not understand WB's logic. If they were to go blu exclusive, this would practically end the format war, and the revenues they would be getting from BD sales would surpass the sum of hd+blu revenue. - Prices - PS3's success - Microsoft's involvement Or of course HD media may become a niche totally due to format war(most people do not notice the difference between SD and HD as it is). What do you think?

11-16-2007, 11:03 AM	#9
skc087 Active Member Member since:Oct 2007 Location:Georgia Blu-ray collection:1 Trading Score:1	A Year From Now Looks Awfully Similar I think we will be at the same place we are now. Bluray will be winning about 2-1 like now. This is for 2 reasons. My first reason is because a ton of people bought the A2 Panasonic HD DVD player in the past month which was just $100 with 5 free HD DVDs. And they are going to have the same sale sometime this holiday season. Probably after thanksgiving. My second reason is that even though they dropped the prices of the PS3, adults dont want to deal with that. They want to deal with a basic BLURAY player that they can put in the living room and not have to worry about anything else. And the cheapest BLURAY player right now is like $450. Which is the best I have seen, I am sure you can get a better deal online but still. People would rather spend $100-$200 for the Panasonic HD player instead of the $450 for a BLURAY. Plus you have to remember that most people are ignorant. Example: I was at BB the day Transformers came out on HD 10/16 I believe and someone was buying a Transformers HD DVD and he didn't even know that he needed a HD DVD player and a HD DVD TV. He was like "I have been waiting for this to come out for so long.....I just got a new HD dvd upcoversion player for $100." I do have one question though. I support both both Bluray and HD and do we really want the war to end? I mean, like when Transformers came out on HD, there was a huge bluray sale. Like $20 for 2 at Frys, Circuit City, BB, other places. Or when Spider-man Trilogy came out on Bluray, they had a huge sale for HD that week. Dont we kinda want these people to keep competing so we get better deals? I know it sounds stupid but, I woud rather have 2 companies batteling each other for my $ vs. one company releasing a movie and them charging $35-$40 for it. Thats my lame little opinion! Let me know what you think.

Similar Threads
thread	Forum	Thread Starter	Replies	Last Post
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit - The 9th Year DVD -- May 26, 2009	General Chat	djluis2k6	4	04-02-2009 10:13 PM
Toshiba HD-XA1 HD DVD Player Wins Sound & Vision Product of the Year Award	Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology	Banjo	30	01-31-2007 12:52 AM

11-16-2007, 09:18 AM	#2
Iron Man Active Member Member since:Aug 2007	I think a decision from Warner to go exclusive will make a big difference in this war. If they choose Blu-ray then HD-DVD will have no change to keep up with Blu-ray in this war and the gap between Blu-ray and HD-DVD will widen fast. If they choose HD-DVD then it's unlikely that HD-DVD will ever leave the market. Hopefully consumers will have several new and cheaper stand alone Blu-ray players to choose from within the next 6 month, forinstance from Funai and Daewoo.

11-16-2007, 09:29 AM	#3
blitz6speed Blu-ray Guru Member since:Oct 2006 Location:Anaheim Hills, CA Trading Score:8	Warner IS being forced to decide by end of february. It is not their choice, there is an external contract that is to be renewed, and part of that contract is to pick a side or the contract will not be renewed. So it is GOING to happen. Just keep buying warner titles, thats all we can do at this point.

11-16-2007, 10:21 AM	#6
blitz6speed Blu-ray Guru Member since:Oct 2006 Location:Anaheim Hills, CA Trading Score:8	I cannot tell you who told me, but it is a insider on the deep inside i met offline in person. Im not forcing you guys to believe me, im just relaying what ive been told and considering who the person who told me works for, i believe it.

11-16-2007, 11:25 AM	#12
canerzi Member Member since:Sep 2007	I think "having one and clear winner" looks really a far fetched goal nowadays. And I think we should definitely want the war to end because otherwise the hd video will not be a mass market product and we'll be waiting for the next best thing for some time. In addition, wishing that the format war goes and on for the "benefits" the competition brings to the customer is not very logical. The Blu-ray discs are not very expensive as it is, and if it were to win the war and reach higher sales, I'm sure it would drop to the level of current dvd movie prices. Deals are not such a major factor for me, as a 1 or 2 $ price drop overall in BD movies would be a better outcome. To be honest, I'm not a fanatic BD supporter. If there was only hd-dvd, I could and would live with it and still be able my favorite movies in HD. But there is Blu-ray, and although its advantages are not that significant, still it does not make sense to choose the lesser format. And more importantly, I've already selected my side and invested in Blu discs (as most people here did) and do not want my money wasted in case hd-dvd becomes the new standard. As I said in the beginning, the best possible outcome as of now seems to me that all studios go neutral and remain so for 5-6 years at least. I'm not sure if it is realistic, but it sure seems more so than a single format where all studios release their movies.

Best Blu-ray Movie Deals