Blu-ray will eventually win but that's not good enough

[mov9384ie]

2008 should have been the year of blu-ray. The year where sales start to take off and "blu-ray" becomes the hot item every guy wants at xmas.

The whole point of bundling blu-ray with ps3 was so that they would have a synergistic affect on each other: blu-ray is the winning format so people buy ps3 for value of movie player and videogame system, ps3 sales increase which leads to more blu-ray movie sales, which leads to more ps3 sales, etc, etc

But the war is still going on. So instead of having a postive-to-positive effect, it has had a negative-to-negative effect. What do I mean? The biggest ps3 advantage over xbox360 is blu-ray and that would have been huge if blu-ray was the single winning format. Since the war is still going on that advantage doesn't exist as much, people compare xbox360 to ps3 based on games and ps3 becomes the more expensive system that plays similar games. This leads to: more people buy the cheaper xbox360, xbox360 gets more games made for it, more people buy xbox360, etc, etc, negative-to-negative.




We all know that for various reasons blu-ray will eventually win the hd war:

1) studio support
2) ce support
3) ps3

None of these factors will ever change, blu-ray holds the advantage, blu-ray can continue to coast along and eventually win the war. Fire sales, tl-51, or anything else won't overcome those factors

It almost feels like that really is the business plan being used: we will eventually win so why bother being aggressive and spending more money than we have to.

But that's not good enough. Blu-ray sales over hd-dvd has been pretty constant at 2:1. The SI ratio is changing mostly due to hd-dvd's earlier introduction diminishing in significance, and the YTD ratio had an initial surge due to ps3 but has settled to 2:1

If you look at 2008 release calendar there isn't reason for the 2:1 ratio to change much

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

Ok, here's the updated list of NEW RELEASE ONLY movies coming out in 2008:

Universal
American Gangster
Charlie Wilson's War (Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts).
Wanted
The Incredible Hulk
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Mamma Mia!
The Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
Leatherheads
Forgetting Sarah Marshall



Paramount/Dreamworks
Bee Movie
Beowulf (Int'l distribution available for BR?)
Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks Exclusive dist. in USA only - Warner Int'l distrib.)
1-18-08 (Cloverfield)
The Spiderwick Chronicles
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (should come for both formats or not at all)
Kung Fu Panda (animated from Dreamworks)
The Love Guru (Mike Myers new comedy)
Tropic Thunder (Spielberg produced Action Comedy with Ben Stiller)
Iron Man
Madagascar 2
The Crate Escape
Startrek XI

Weinstein
The Mist

New Line
The Golden Compass
Semi-Pro
Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo


Warner
Fred Claus
I Am Legend
Get Smart
The Dark Knight
Speed Racer
10,000 B.C.
The Bucket List

Sony
Vantage Point
Hancock
Bond 22
The Other Boleyn Girl
Step Brothers
You Don't Mess with Zohan (Adam Sandler)
Walk Hard (Columbia - Apatow flick)
Angels & Demons ( davinci code follow up )

Fox/MGM
Hitman
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
Wolverine
The Day the Earth Stood Still
The List
Alvin and the Chipmunks
Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem
Starship Dave (Eddie Murphy)
X-Files 2 (films in December, supposed to come out in July at theaters)
Jumper
Horton Hears a Who
Dragonball Z live action

Disney
National Treasure: Book of Secrets
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Wall-E
No Country for Old Men


Lionsgate
Rambo
The Eye
The Forbidden Kingdom (Jet Li/Jacky Chan)

So the war will just drag on. Blu-ray can continue winning every week 2:1 in 2008, but the war will still be dragging on. The ratio needs to be continually increasing in order for studios to be compelled to leave hd-dvd behind.

The other danger is that as time goes on, the prospect of people going dual format becomes greater which would only prolong the war.

I think it's critical for sony to take action and try to end the war within months. If paramount was willing to be bought sony should have paid them off, but that's over now so sony should go after universal or warner. It is unlikely either studio will go blu-ray exclusive on their own free will any time soon so it's up to sony

END THIS WAR

[BStecke]

The two movies I would want to buy, Iron Man and Hulk, will be on Blu-ray in Japan. It'll be a long time before HD DVD has any more exclusive "killer apps."

With any luck, Spielberg will give HD DVD the finger and we'll get a Blu Indy quadrilogy next winter. I can't imagine Spielberg accepting this films "dumbed down" when they could be better.

[Rathael]

I could have sworn Beowulf is WB but ok.... i went to see it in theaters last night and there was big WB before the movie lol.

[jorg]

Originally Posted by Rathael

I could have sworn Beowulf is WB but ok.... i went to see it in theaters last night and there was big WB before the movie lol.

its wb out side of the usa

[BStecke]

Originally Posted by Rathael

I could have sworn Beowulf is WB but ok.... i went to see it in theaters last night and there was big WB before the movie lol.

WB is one of the production companies, but not the distributor.

[Kristin Simard]

I do think it's important to add the catalog releases into the equation. New releases don't make up the whole picture.

[Musashi]

Originally Posted by mov9384ie

2008 should have been the year of blu-ray.

Who says it won't be? I don't agree with your verb tense since 2008 hasn't happened yet.

[bkbluray]

Originally Posted by badchannels

The biggest way to end it and get blu-ray sales up is to....smother the B&M stores with catalog titles. Take over the amount of space drastically and force stores to continously add more and more Blu-Ray shelf space.

Do it now...and do it quick. People see more movies for the blu-ray format..they are going to go for it without question. Then whether the Hd-dvd format is dying or not...it will appear to the public eye as if it is anyway.

And more importantly...make those catalog titles between $18.98 and $24.99 in price.

Many catalog titles are already at those prices... And with the BOGO sales, you could easily get 2 for $20 or 2 for $30. Movie prices will come down all across the board simply because of competition between stores (both online and brick and mortar). Just look at the last two weeks. If you bought Cars and Ratatouille at basically any store when they came out, you either got $10 off or got a $10 giftcard. This effectively brought the price of the movies down to $25 each, which is not bad at all considering the quality of titles you are getting.

[savage1984]

2008 will be the year of blu-ray for a variety of reasons.
First off, it will be another year of bd software dominance. HD dud will never win a week. All hd dud has is fud and confusion. Anyone who knows the differences always picks bd, but they hesitate to buy because players are too expensive.
Well you know what, prices will drop as 2008 rolls on. In fact, hdtv's will become more prevalent in homes throughout 2008, especially because the superbowl and the Olympics(?).
Anyways, Bill Hunt from thedigitalbits.com has noted that all dvd, bd, and dud sales are crap because of the format war. Especially dvd!!! People have stopped buying movies. They don't want to waste hard earned cash on a dead (dud/dvd) format. SOOOOOOOO, when studios realize this in 2008!!! Shit will hit the fan. They hear no mo money and say what do we need to do. Okay we crush out the dud. Okay we can do that. We bin holdin' back but I guess it's time to bring out the guns!

[OokieSpookie]

Beowulf is WB outside of the US and will be available for import as will Iron Man, the Hulk and if I am not mistaken so will Sweeny Todd

[Rike255]

This 2:1 ratio isn't going to continue on forever that's for sure. Eventually, if things don't start changing for HD DVD, Toshiba is going to say "alright it's not worth it anymore" and back out. There's only so much money a company is willing to lose over something like this.
I'm absolutely certain we don't have to worry about getting further ahead then Blu-Ray is, although it would help. Keeping the spread the same as it is now will eventually lead to the HD DVD demise anyways. Look at how much money Toshiba is losing over this.


And the only movie I'm interested in on that entire list is Bucket List with Morgan Freeman and Jack Nicholson. Looks fantastic.

[bajor27]

Originally Posted by badchannels

The biggest way to end it and get blu-ray sales up is to....smother the B&M stores with catalog titles. Take over the amount of space drastically and force stores to continously add more and more Blu-Ray shelf space.

Do it now...and do it quick. People see more movies for the blu-ray format..they are going to go for it without question. Then whether the Hd-dvd format is dying or not...it will appear to the public eye as if it is anyway.

And more importantly...make those catalog titles between $18.98 and $24.99 in price.

I think you bring up a good point. If I were an average consumer, I would already own a DVD player, so I might not be going to look in the player section to see what's new there. If I go looking for a movie and see these new blue and red packages, I may take notice. And if I see much more blu than red, I would think I'd notice that and assume it was better. (of course I still might assume that both red and blue are just the same new format and would play on any new player I bought)


On a related note, I don't think catalogue titles could win the war on their own, but I do think that they can help us maintain our weekly sales leads. I'd still rather double dip on a good catalogue title than buy a new HD DUD release.

[blukrank]

I went to see Beowolf today and I loved it.Best time I had at the movies in a while.I do hope I can get Beowolf on Blu-Ray.If I have to import I do hope there will be region free? I guess I should check out The Beowolf movie that is out on Blu-Ray right now even thoe it got poor reviews for the picture.

[UltimateFighter]

The ability to end this war quickly was lost during the Paramount defection. Until there is studio movement, this war will not end. Toshiba has played their last card...the cheap player. However, their install base will continue to increase and the war will be prolonged until studios go BD exclusive. WB and Universal can end this war, but there is way too much money flowing into their companies for them to drop HD-DVD support. Notice how much smack the BDA talked at the begining of the year? They haven't said jack since then because they know it's a stalemate. Yes, we are winning, but it's not enough to end the war.

I'll use the "electric car" analogy. Car companies have the tech to get us off of gas(HD-DVD) in a year. The gasoline companies(M$ and Tosh) however keep pumping billions into the auto industry, hence we keep getting cars that get 20 mpg. It's total crap, but welcome to business 101.

[richard lichtenfelt]

Originally Posted by UltimateFighter

I'll use the "electric car" analogy. Car companies have the tech to get us off of gas(HD-DVD) in a year. The gasoline companies(M$ and Tosh) however keep pumping billions into the auto industry, hence we keep getting cars that get 20 mpg. It's total crap, but welcome to business 101.

Actually they keep pumping money into the politicians hands. The truth they don't teach you in business 101. Lobbyist - a sanitized term for bribery.

[UltimateFighter]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

Actually they keep pumping money into the politicians hands. The truth they don't teach you in business 101. Lobbyist - a sanitized term for bribery.

Didn't want to make my analogy too long Totally true though!