Bill Hunt of DigitalBits: HD-DVD > BD

[JTK]

Dated 8-25-06

Bill Hunt, of DigitalBits, wrote:

Originally Posted by Bill Hunt

"I'm somewhat surprised to find myself saying this, but HD-DVD is quietly making Blu-ray Disc look pretty silly.

Motivated as I've been by a desire to see this format war end quickly, I was quick to sing the potential praises of Blu-ray Disc early on, simply because it seemed to have the clear advantages of better technology and much broader studio support, plus the potential market-share dominance of the forthcoming PS3 game system.

How many of us does this describe? BH may as well have stolen my thoughts outright.

Originally Posted by Bill Hunt

And to be honest, my very early experiences with HD-DVD were disappointing. Since that time, however, an interesting this has happened... the early Blu-ray experience has turned out to be pretty lackluster too. Discs have looked bad, the Samsung player is a disaster and Sony's over-priced the PS3 right out of the market (you'll be able to buy both an Xbox 360 AND a Nintendo Wii for the price of a PS3).

All true to anyone who even tries to be objective for a few seconds.

Originally Posted by Bill Hunt

Sony and their BD camp allies are just not delivering on the promise of their format - period.

100 percent true.

Originally Posted by Bill Hunt

Meanwhile, HD-DVD software and Toshiba's hardware (via these firmware updates) just keeps getting better and better.

And get this: Sony STILL can't get their 50GB dual-layered Blu-ray Discs to work right on the existing and prototype players. The current Samsung player, as shipped, will not play them. How do you like them apples? Ouch.

I think those apples suck.

Originally Posted by Bill Hunt

If the BD camp doesn't do something dramatic and fast... they will have lost the hearts and minds of the early adopters to HD-DVD.

To my thinking at least, HD-DVD is looking better and better all the time... and it seems to me it's now the format to beat."

Exactly right.


Folks, this is the same Bill Hunt that was REPEATEDLY raped on hddvd.avs.com a BD shill and tool and the rest of it saying these things.


All I know is that BD better get cranking come 4th quarter, and I don't mean just cranking out expensive hardware. The software needs to be worthy of that hardware or you can forget about it.


They can keep promising the heavens, but they need to start DELIVERING.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by JTK

They can keep promising the heavens, but they need to start DELIVERING.

Amen to that! If someone would have told me this past January that I'd be the proud owner of an HD DVD player and that Blu-ray would be a huge disappointment I would have smacked them in the face for lying. Things change, people change. Blu-ray needs to make up for their miserable early showing and do so quickly if they still want my cash.

[vick vega]

no doubt if the bda,in particular Sony dosen't do something quick I'm going to say **** it and wait a little while and see if the bda can't improve. If they can't I guess I'll have to jump ship to hd dvd

[Jodi]

...and I'm sure you guys know that there won't be any "Pirates of the Caribbean" Blu-Ray discs (PERIOD!) for the holiday season. Yet another example that Blu-Ray is on that slippery slope -- perhaps to nowhere.

Jodi

[phloyd]

4 months to the end of December is key. We have all known this. Nothing has changed.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by phloyd

4 months to the end of December is key. We have all known this. Nothing has changed.

That's the problem. We "need" to see change coming from the BDA. Trotting out kilobuck machine after machine and delivering underperforming discs isn't engendering the format to anyone.

We simply demand the best quality and features available for a decent price. They've given us very little for the price.

[marzetta7]

Wow, all this drama regarding Blu-ray, for a format that has only been out for 1-2 months. People claiming doom, impatiently prophesying the format's demise. Give it a rest will ya.

I second phloyd, nothing has changed. Delivery has been and is expected come 4th quarter.

I'm rather excited to see what all the BDA will come out with, while most here seem to be more dramatically pessimistic--IMHO, a knee-jerk response for a very immature market and one that will take time to proceed out of the early adoption phase. Realistically, you probably won't see this market mature until sometime in early 2008, so I think a lot of you are jumping the gun with the BDA better "deliver or else" drama.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by marzetta7

Wow, all this drama regarding Blu-ray, for a format that has only been out for 1-2 months. People claiming doom, impatiently prophesying the format's demise. Give it a rest will ya.

I second phloyd, nothing has changed. Delivery has been and is expected come 4th quarter.

I'm rather excited to see what all the BDA will come out with, while most here seem to be more dramatically pessimistic--IMHO, a knee-jerk response for a very immature market and one that will take time to proceed out of the early adoption phase. Realistically, you probably won't see this market mature until sometime in early 2008, so I think a lot of you are jumping the gun with the BDA better "deliver or else" drama.

Agreed.

[hmurchison]

Marzetta7

I guess that would be true "if" HD DVD wasn't around executing properly. While I don't feel I was burned with Minidisc I did have to sit around and watch Sony flounder with their marketing and pricing of this technology. Somehow the rumor got out that they didn't sound good and that became the perception. Perception is reality to many and the format never took off in the US despite having really cool features that still cannot be had in CD burners.

I'm kind of getting deja vu here. Now the perception is moving from "Blu Ray looks fantastic" into the opposite. These poor discs aren't going to automagically improve. Are some people taking it to the extreme? Perhaps. However this is a high stakes game and the BDA has been caught relatively flat footed.

[suprmallet]

Figured I'd pop back in to post something that pertains to this.

As many of you might be aware of, Bill's comment that the Samsung as shipped cannot play 50GB discs sparked a massive controversy over at AVS. So I asked Bill to clarify his statement, this is the email he sent me:

Originally Posted by Bill Hunt via email

Pretty much everything I say sparks a massive debate over at AVS these days. If I say anything critical of HD-DVD, those folks spank me for it on the forums. Likewise with Blu-ray. It seems to go with the territory in the high-def format war.

For the record, my information comes from multiple sources - some in key positions at some of the Blu-ray Disc supporting companies, some in other industry positions involved with either the testing or production discs in both high-def formats - speaking to me off the record. The problem is not with the discs per se, it's with the hardware. Samsung didn't have final product 50 GB movie discs to test their firmware with before they launched, so they're having problems getting the players working with these discs now. I believe Sony and Pioneer are also working hard to resolve compatibility issues. I'm sure all of these issues are fixable with firmware upgrades, and I have no doubt that the issues WILL be fixed. But up until a couple weeks ago, I was told Samsung at least was STILL having problems. As you can imagine, there are a few studios that are anxious to get these 50 GB BD-ROM discs to work properly, because there are a number of longer films waiting on them. Obviously, Sony has delayed Lawrence of Arabia and Black Hawk Down for this very reason. I know of other titles waiting on the 50 GB disc compatibility issue being worked out as well.

The interview that Ben Feingold did last week about how Sony will have at least 2 of the 50GB titles out this year... that was all about reassuring the restless folks in their own camp that the discs are coming, as well as those in the media and the early adopter community. It's amazing how many people have e-mailed me that story as proof that I'm wrong about this issue, but you'll notice that no specific dates or other information is given. It's classic studio smoke and mirrors - a bit of P.R. damage control. They know that BD has been taking some hits in the media and with the early adopter community, and they're anxious to show things in a more positive light. And keep in mind that I say all this as someone who has been very positive about Blu-ray Disc... or at least the format's potential. But Sony and their camp has a long way to go to really start delivering on it. It seems to me that the HD-DVD camp is delivering 1) more titles 2) somewhat better looking titles 3) titles with more features - even if most of them are just ported over from standard DVD - and 4) select titles with more advanced interactivity. The Blu-ray Disc camp is lagging behind, a lot more than I thought they would. They can still catch up certainly, but I think they really need to start delivering some big, great titles. Fox needs to announce titles. Disney needs to announce BETTER titles. It's not exactly inspiring confidence when Disney is saying to their own shareholders that they have no intention of releasing Cars and Pirates on BD this year, while meanwhile the HD-DVD camp has announced several big day-and-date releases. We need firm street dates for Pioneer and Sony hardware. They need to get busy.

So, the question is, will it be easier to change the discs to fit the standards of the player (unlikely as it's been an uphill battle just to get any 50GB discs working), or change the players to fit the current discs? And if it's the latter, how complex will that be? If Sony released a 50GB disc tomorrow, how long would it be until a player could play it?

Also, I wanted to note Bill's comments about the "50GB coming soon announcement," saying it was essentially damage control.

[JTK]

Supermallet: Does BH know that you're posting emails of his out in the open like this?

At least run it by him first. It's kind of considered bad form not to.

[suprmallet]

There is more to that email where he says I can feel free to post it, but he talks a whole bunch about AVS, which didn't seem germaine to the discussion, so I cut it.

But yes, I have Bill's full permission to repost the email.

[AV_Integrated]

I find the Bill's statements all along have been fair and honest. He got way to much flack from some boards for his criticism of HD-DVD and for his statements about Blu-ray. He definitely falls into the 'early-adopter' category, but his statements seem very accurate. Early adopters are going towards HD-DVD and how this may affect the long term format war have yet to be seen.

AVS and other forums (including this one) are full of early adopters. Unfortunately, as Bill tries to speak to the masses and says things like "wait", the early adopters will NOT wait and treat him like an idiot. It's very unfair IMO when he is just stating facts. One of those facts that people don't want to hear is that their opinion doesn't mean crap. Early adopters don't decide format wars, the long term general public does and reaching out to them, in massive numbers, is the key.

PS3 is a unknown at this point. There is no other way to look at it as far as I can tell. It potentially could drop $100+ in price in a year depending on Blu-ray manufacturing capabilities. If it doesn't drop in price, but keeps selling out, then Sony perhaps could come close to breaking even on game system cost as manufacturing of PS3 ramps up and raw materials become more readily available. But, I would not be so bold as to make any serious predictions for what will really happen with PS3.

Remember: Sony, despite some issues last year, was voted by the general public as the most trusted name and highest quality consumer electronics manufacturers.

So, forget the early adopters and those that feel like they have a say in it all. I do not. You do not. We do not. This format war is not about to be decided by any of 'us'. Bill, I believe, is well aware of that, unfortunately, his audience isn't the general public, so he ends up being forced to write certain things to placate those that are his audience. I think he performs the balancing act very well - and retains honesty.

[Psiweaver]

Bill has been very fair and honest and all I can hope for is that we get to see some good Blu-ray content soon so I can start enjoying my sony, fox and disney content in great HD before another 5 years is up.

[Dave]

Originally Posted by nyg

Amen to that! If someone would have told me this past January that I'd be the proud owner of an HD DVD player and that Blu-ray would be a huge disappointment I would have smacked them in the face for lying. Things change, people change. Blu-ray needs to make up for their miserable early showing and do so quickly if they still want my cash.

I remember first CDs and then DVDs were crap in the begining. BD is mostly prototypes curently and you want them to "DELIVER" as they were out for years??? I cant understand why some people are so short eyed! At the time when Blu-Ray gets stable enough to "DELIVER" the doom will be for HD DVD...
Just wait a few more months and you will see.

What will hapen when an average uninformed customer enters HD Video shop?
-"Hello. I want an HD Video player"
-"We have Toshiba, Sony, Samsung, Panasonic, LG, Apple, , , , , , , , ....................... players. The Toshiba is the cheapest and uses diferent discs while others are a bit more expensive and use Blu-Ray."
-"OK I will get the Panasonic..."

[Applefiend]

As I said in some other thread, we're getting drip fed what we signed up for...

Flying Dagger... eugh...
Then Underworld Evo - Better
then Stealth - better still
then Training day - even better
now VC-1 Warner disks - Hubba hubba!

All building up to the final nirvana of 50GB VC-1/H264 disks.

But 25GB VC-1 is pretty hot. I bought all the Warner VC-1 disks. I don't even like the movies, I just want to see what all the VC-1 fuss is about.