Blu-ray Disc Will Still Beat HD DVD

[Jeff®]

http://www.forrester.com/Research/Do...,40503,00.html

October 5, 2006
Blu-ray Disc Will Still Beat HD-DVD
Market Researchers Should Track Five "Blue Laser Market Indicators"
by Ted Schadler
with Josh Bernoff, Heidi Lo

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Length: 4 pages
We haven't changed our mind since October 2005, when we predicted that Blu-ray would win a pyrrhic victory over HD-DVD for the next generation of DVDs. To track the market's development, market researchers should begin charting five "blue laser market indicators" based on data, including blockbuster titles in each format, DVD-playing game console sales and attach rates to HDTVs, PCs with blue laser drives, blue laser players available at retail and sold, and positive mentions in the press.

[zombie]

Ouch! $249 to read the full article. Would have liked to read it but I'm not that anxious.

[Blu-Light]

Obviously. Blu-Ray has everything going for it and HD-DVD has just one, maybe two things going for it. HD-DVD will likely be a dead format in two to three years maybe less.

[Dave]

All analysist say that BLU-RAY will win, all IT companys support it and produce devices...
Its done hd dvd, its DONE for you

[Jazar]

What's anoying is that this battle has lasted longer then it should have. With Toshiba selling a good product under cost and Blu-ray comming out with a big fumble with underperforming titles and delays after delays, there's going to be a lot of people sitting on the fence until a clear winner emerges. The longer that takes the longer studios will hold back their triple A titles and the longer Universal stays stubborn.

Oh and in case anyone didn't know (I had to look it up): A Pyrrhic victory is a victory which comes at devastating cost to the victor. So things will get bloody.

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by Jazar

Oh and in case anyone didn't know (I had to look it up): A Pyrrhic victory is a victory which comes at devastating cost to the victor. So things will get bloody.

Yes, having a misspent youth studying Latin (and consequently Roman era histories) for many years, I'm well aware of what a Pyrrhic victory is. (But no, I'm not old enough to have learned Latin at its height!)

The implication I got from the Pyrrhic victory statement is that in order to win Blu-ray is going to need to sell things below cost and drive the market faster than HD DVD is willing to do. This might be financially draining on the smaller players. However... So far the Blu-ray team has not seemed willing to do this. Huge sunk costs coupled with vastly underwriting of the systems/media costs do not seem to be in their plans. We haven't seen any announcements of well below cost hardware and media.

For a company, a Pyrrhic victory would imply that their financial resources are so drained by a battle that they can barely continue and any other battle could finish them. Additionally, a Pyrrhic victory would imply that the Blu-ray companies would not have the financial resources to move the technology forward suggesting that BD-50 disks are the furthest the technology would advance.

Could HD DVD have a Pyrrhic victory instead? Maybe, but I doubt it.

Does this mean there will be no clear winner? I doubt it. I think there will be a clear winner no later than January 2009. However, I hope a clear winner is decided by January 2008.

IF the BDA team members were to decide to significantly underwrite hardware and media and thus sell them very inexpensively (notice I did not say "cheaply") to the public then the battle could be over by mid 2007. This might give them the chance to recoup losses faster. However, as mentioned above, this does not seem to be the BDA team members plan.

[hmurchison]

I don't need to spend $249 for what I already know. We simply do not have enough information to make an accurate business decision here. Anyone telling you otherwise is simply donning the pom poms and cheering their chosen format.

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I don't need to spend $249 for what I already know. We simply do not have enough information to make an accurate business decision here. Anyone telling you otherwise is simply donning the pom poms and cheering their chosen format.

Yeah, market researchers don't know squat...AVS is where it's at...long live the omnipotent and omniscient Amir!

Toshiba,...TOSHIBA...YEAAAAAAAH TOSHIBA!!!!

Oh, I'm sorry, I must have morphed into Murch there for a second.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by marzetta7

Yeah, market researchers don't know squat...AVS is where it's at...long live the omnipotent and omniscient Amir!

Toshiba,...TOSHIBA...YEAAAAAAAH TOSHIBA!!!!

Oh, I'm sorry, I must have morphed into Murch there for a second.

Well hell I'm open to accuracy. Please provide me results encompassing 20 years that show Forresters accuracy rating. If they maintain a %75 accuracy rating or above for their "forcasts" then I'll gladly pay.

I've been in IT long enough to know that most of these companies have accuracy that is barely above " a best guess"

I don't Amir to give my my opinions. After all I'm a Mac guy and he's a PC guy and I think AVC over the long haul will be superior to VC-1.