Box Office Showdown (7/7-7/9) Spider-Man: Homecoming

[Chaotic]

Spider-Man: Homecoming
Sony/Columbia



Limited:
A Ghost Story
A24

[ClownPrinceofCrime]

No poll?

Spidey - 145m opening weekend.

[Chaotic]

I need time to make the poll.

[jacobsever]

I did $100-$110 with no facts or information to back up my claim.

Just a feeling.

[Michael11]

I think it will make just shy of $100m but wouldn't be surprised if it went slightly over.

[ClownPrinceofCrime]

Originally Posted by Michael11

I think it will make just shy of $100m but wouldn't be surprised if it went slightly over.

That'd be terrible.

[Michael11]

Originally Posted by ClownPrinceofCrime

That'd be terrible.

It would be better than both Amazing Spider-Man films and only a hair under the Sam Raimi versions.

And judging from the reaction to the trailers, people are saying this looks more of the same....it's the 6th Spider-Man film in 15 years. It could be running out of steam.

[jacobsever]

Let's look at opening weekends in the franchise:

Spider-Man (2002) - $115 million
Spider-Man 2 (2004) - $88 million/$116 million (July 4th, 4 day weekend)
Spider-Man 3 (2007) - $151 million
Amazing Spider-Man (2012) - $62 million
The Amazing Spider-Man 3 (2014) - $91 million

At the most, this character opened up to $151 million, max.
The past 2 installments were both pretty shy of $100 million.

So, I'm sticking with my $100-$110 million. I think people are excited for a new direction, but a lot of people have fatigue with this character. There isn't too much competition, except some leftover Despicable Me 3.

[Chaotic]

Only a hair under Raimi's would still be disaster, since those were 13-15 years ago, no 3D or IMAX and weren't part of a cinematic universe.

[prkprkprk]

For whatever reason I'm not feeling much buzz from people for a new Spider-Man movie, even with it being part of the MCU. The reactions to the trailers have been good but not spectacular, and I think there's definitely a bit of Spidey franchise fatigue given that this is the third iteration of the series on film. I still guessed ~120mil opening (since I think a good amount of people will go to this anyway given how weak the summer movie selection has been so far), which would be good, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up with a good chunk lower than that.

[ClownPrinceofCrime]

Originally Posted by Michael11

It would be better than both Amazing Spider-Man films and only a hair under the Sam Raimi versions.

And judging from the reaction to the trailers, people are saying this looks more of the same....it's the 6th Spider-Man film in 15 years. It could be running out of steam.

That's not really saying much, and Raimi's films were monstrous openings for their time.

I hope not. I don't think so. Bats and Spidey can never run out of steam. They can be hurt by lousy films, but if I have to bet my house on any 2 superheroes time and again, I'm going with these 2.

Originally Posted by Chaotic

Only a hair under Raimi's would still be disaster, since those were 13-15 years ago, no 3D or IMAX and weren't part of a cinematic universe.

Exactly. Not to mention, even your standard 2D ticket was $12 at the time (NYC prices).

[sandman slim]

The way this summer's gone so far, I just don't know. The trailers for Iron Man 4 look good, but I've heard exactly zero buzz from anybody. Guessing under $100 million, could really go either way.

[DanTheMan]

$112m-$115m

[Predatorix38417]

1. Spider-Man Homecoming $115 million (or higher)
2. Despicable Me 3 $40 million
3. Baby Driver $11 million
4. Transformers $9 million
5. Wonder Woman $8 million

[Troll2fan]

I went with $100-$110. I love Spidey, he was one of the few things I liked about Civil War, but the trailers have done nothing for me. It's to the point to where I'll only see it in the theater if I can see it for free.

[sxerunner]

Keep in mind that ASM 2 opened to $94 million with mixed reviews, plus it was coming off its lukewarm predecessor.

$110 to $120.

[Poya]

Originally Posted by jacobsever

Let's look at opening weekends in the franchise:

Spider-Man (2002) - $115 million
Spider-Man 2 (2004) - $88 million/$116 million (July 4th, 4 day weekend)
Spider-Man 3 (2007) - $151 million
Amazing Spider-Man (2012) - $62 million
The Amazing Spider-Man 3 (2014) - $91 million

At the most, this character opened up to $151 million, max.
The past 2 installments were both pretty shy of $100 million.

So, I'm sticking with my $100-$110 million. I think people are excited for a new direction, but a lot of people have fatigue with this character. There isn't too much competition, except some leftover Despicable Me 3.

They actually made that film in 2014!?

[Omegaice]

I went with $100-$110M mainly due to the amount of advertising this film has received. BUT I wouldn't be surprised if it underperformed that $110M threshold. I'm going to see it but I'm not super stoked to see it.

[Leonidas King]

I'm actually looking forward to A Ghost Story more than I am for Homecoming lmao.

[Poya]

Originally Posted by Leonidas_King

I'm actually looking forward to A Ghost Story more than I am for Homecoming lmao.

A24 > Every Major Hollywood Studio