2008 Blu-ray (or format war) predictions!

[JadedRaverLA]

I stole the idea for the thread from AVS... but since that thread will undoubtedly be locked, then deleted, I thought it would be fun to get everyone's predictions for what the biggest developments for Blu-ray will be in 2008... and when exactly (pick a month) those events will occur.


Here's my guess...

Feb. 2008 -- Paramount officially returns to "neutrality," announcing more Blu-ray releases starting in March. Toshiba expresses their "devastation" at the news, while hinting at possible legal action. Universal waits two weeks, then says they still support HD DVD. Warner's "time release" kills HD DVD sales. Many stores are only ordering a few copies of the late HD DVD releases... and Warner is pressing very few to begin with.

March 2008 -- No one can find an HD DVD player in any Best Buy... anywhere. HD DVD fans say they just can't keep up with demand. Meanwhile, no stores have players (even display models).

April 2008 -- Panasonic BD50 is released, with BD-Live and DTS-HD MA decodiong. HD DVD fans who can't stand players that can't go online to purchase Evan Almighty shower curtains rejoice. Then, they get pissed because the player isn't free. Also, in April, GTA IV finally comes out, and postings on Blu-ray.com go to an all-time low for about three weeks as many posters spend their time jacking cars and trying to find out how to play "Hot Coffee" in the new game.

May 2008 -- With the BD50 out, SCE releases PS3 updates giving the system BD-Live and DTS-HD MA decoding as well. Target stops carrying HD DVDs in store.

June 2008 -- Best Buy and Walmart announce that they are no longer carrying HD DVD in store (including movie titles). Players are officially unavailable... movies can only be purchased online. Warner is no longer taking orders from retailers on ANY HD DVD title. 2 more major BD50 replicators are online and pressing discs.

July 2008 -- Responding to retailer pressure (and possibly receiving some financial "assistance" from Sony), Universal announces their first Blu-ray titles. In response, any retailers left stocking HD DVDs, stop reordering titles in the format for B&M stores.

August 2008 -- The PS3 takes another price cut, lowering the base price to $299. They also have software-based backwards compatibility enabled for the 40GB PS3 and all newer designs.

September 2008 -- Sony's BD-Live players finally hit the market... with a full line-up of players, that start discs within 10 seconds. Meanwhile, Samsung launches the second-gen "combo" player... for those HD DVD fans who NEED to migrate to BD. It's still terrible... and Samsung doesn't bother to provide firmware updates to play most titles.

October 2008 -- Toshiba launches two "combo" players... that play HD DVD and BD discs. HD DVD fans rejoice. The players take over 2 minutes to start any disc, and have MAJOR problems with BD-J discs. HD DVD fans all blame BD specs, as opposed to Toshiba. All the second-tier manufacturers, who had been waiting on the sidelines even though the "officially" supported Blu-ray, release their players, since the format war is OVER. This would be JVC, Lite-on, Chinese manufacturers., etc.

November 2008 -- All major retailers stock Blu-ray exclusively in store. Paramount no longer produces HD DVDs. Universal still does... in limited quantities to take care of existing customers. Blu-ray ads are EVERYWHERE... and a Blu-ray player is the "must have" gift for the holiday season. Prices start at $200.

Never in 2008 -- Toshiba will NOT release 4th gen HD DVD players... only the HD DVD/Blu-ray combo I mentioned. Also, Microsoft will NOT release a Blu-ray drive add-on for the XBox 360. Their "insiders" and fanbois will only speak of HD downloads from this point on. No HD Download service will offer an "ownership" model that can remotely compete with Blu-ray or even DVD.

Throughout 2008 -- HD DVD will become a "pirate format," using standard DVD+/-R discs and overcompressed VC-1 video. These discs will play in an XBox 360 and any Blu-ray/HD DVD combo player. HD DVD fanbois claim that this format is still FAR better than the Blu-ray format... which they can't POSSIBLY support.


Wow... I wrote a lot more than I planned on. But you all can hold me to it. I know I'll be off on several predictions... but it's not a terrible timeline.

NOW... everyone else's prediction....