Reuters: "Economy and DVD sales slip drove Warner to Blu-ray"

[J_UNTITLED]

Just thought I would post this in case some didn't get a chance to see it before.

[york weir]

I read that and thought it was the stupidest excuse ever. Gas prices? Give me a break. Just say what's honest. Blu-ray has 10 times the players and has sold double the discs.

With the here and now that's all there is to it.

[w_tanoto]

this is a very old article. it was posted several days (early days in january) after warner blu announcement.

[DetroitSportsFan]

This was discussed over one month ago, when the article came out.

[Sylin]

It's pretty accurate. Warner stated after their Blu switch that they lost over $350,000,000 in DVD sales in 2007. They don't want the format war to linger because the longer it does the more people will hold off on purchasing SD DVD's and the further SD DVD sales will plummet overall.

Consumers aren't stupid... just slightly behind the bell curve. The sooner the format war ends, the faster people will adopt Blu and the better chance ALL the studios have of recouping these continued losses.

[J_UNTITLED]

Originally Posted by ikcizokm

It's pretty accurate. Warner stated after their Blu switch that they lost over $350,000,000 in DVD sales in 2007. They don't want the format war to linger because the longer it does the more people will hold off on purchasing SD DVD's and the further SD DVD sales will plummet overall.

Agreed.

[york weir]

Originally Posted by ikcizokm

It's pretty accurate. Warner stated after their Blu switch that they lost over $350,000,000 in DVD sales in 2007. They don't want the format war to linger because the longer it does the more people will hold off on purchasing SD DVD's and the further SD DVD sales will plummet overall.

Consumers aren't stupid... just slightly behind the bell curve. The sooner the format war ends, the faster people will adopt Blu and the better chance ALL the studios have of recouping these continued losses.

How are they going to make up that difference though? HDTV's are only in roughly 30% of homes and of that only 10% have HD content.

[Sylin]

Originally Posted by york weir

How are they going to make up that difference though? HDTV's are only in roughly 30% of homes and of that only 10% have HD content.

They're directly attributing the drop in sales to consumer hold-out due to the format war.

They understand, and probably rightly so, that once Blu-ray truly triumphs as the next optical format (ie. once HD-DVD concedes defeat, or all studios go neutral/Blu) that there will be a surge in Blu-ray player sales. Manufacturers will respond with lower player costs in an effort to compete and capture a larger market share. There's estimates that by 2010 (just 2 years away), that there will be 50 million Blu-ray players in US households and businesses.

The consumer ignorance over the US's digital TV switch next year will likely result in broader adoption of HDTV, which will only fuel the expansion.

Retail will be helping, too. The same way they did with VHS vs. DVD and cassette vs. CD, they'll begin to thin the amount of SD DVD movies on the shelf and give more real estate to Blu. Studios will cease producing catalog films on SD. Think of movies like The Big Hit or Memoirs of a Geisha... there'd be really no incentive for them to release them on SD anymore.

It might take a year or two, but the domino effect will begin once there's a hi-def standard.

Is it prognosticating? Yeah, a little. But the evidence is all there. Warner's switch to Blu will be viewed as the "tipping point" that caused Blu to become mainstream. Trust me... you don't lose $350m and not do your homework. I think Warner has it right.

[HeavyHitter]

The DUD boys cannot admit defeat and failure, so they are always looking for excuses and like to place them blame on something else other than their own failed product.

[galz]

Originally Posted by HeavyHitter

The DUD boys cannot admit defeat and failure, so they are always looking for excuses and like to place them blame on something else other than their own failed product.

Warner gave the excuse not DUD boys as you call them. I personally think they could have said something better than that as well.

[york weir]

Originally Posted by ikcizokm

They're directly attributing the drop in sales to consumer hold-out due to the format war.

They understand, and probably rightly so, that once Blu-ray truly triumphs as the next optical format (ie. once HD-DVD concedes defeat, or all studios go neutral/Blu) that there will be a surge in Blu-ray player sales. Manufacturers will respond with lower player costs in an effort to compete and capture a larger market share. There's estimates that by 2010 (just 2 years away), that there will be 50 million Blu-ray players in US households and businesses.

The consumer ignorance over the US's digital TV switch next year will likely result in broader adoption of HDTV, which will only fuel the expansion.

Retail will be helping, too. The same way they did with VHS vs. DVD and cassette vs. CD, they'll begin to thin the amount of SD DVD movies on the shelf and give more real estate to Blu. Studios will cease producing catalog films on SD. Think of movies like The Big Hit or Memoirs of a Geisha... there'd be really no incentive for them to release them on SD anymore.

It might take a year or two, but the domino effect will begin once there's a hi-def standard.

Is it prognosticating? Yeah, a little. But the evidence is all there. Warner's switch to Blu will be viewed as the "tipping point" that caused Blu to become mainstream. Trust me... you don't lose $350m and not do your homework. I think Warner has it right.

I hope it goes as you say because for there to be 50 million players in just 22 months from now the prices need to hit the floor fast. Car manufacturers need to get on the bandwagon and release players for vans. DVD needs to be gone for that type of explosion in my opinion.

[Sylin]

Originally Posted by york weir

I hope it goes as you say because for there to be 50 million players in just 22 months from now the prices need to hit the floor fast. Car manufacturers need to get on the bandwagon and release players for vans. DVD needs to be gone for that type of explosion in my opinion.

Wasn't my projection, personally... came from some research firm a few weeks ago. They specifically mentioned the late 2008 availability of sub-$200 players from (I think) a Korean or Chinese manufacturer (whichever one was unveiled at CES 08) as being one of the factors to consider in this sales explosion. That, and they fully expect the format war to be over shortly.

I wish I could remember who it was and give a link, but I do know I read about it here on this forum.

You are totally right that we need to see players for autos, and maybe a portable player, too. It would be awesome to see BMW or even Chrysler (whose Town & Country van is the best-selling family van in the US, I think) announce some Blu-ray support. Imagine the load times, tho... you'd be from New York to Pennsylvania before PotC started up!