Based solely on install base, wouldn't Blu Ray win by default?

[Rnk23]

Looking at this whole format war has got me thinking. The conclusion I have come to is that I don't think it is possible for Blu Ray to lose this war. The reason for this is the PS3.

I don't think even the most hardcore of the HD-DVD fanboys would disagree with me saying that the PS3 will greatly outsell any of the HD-DVD players. Since there is a BR player within the PS3, that right there has just upped the install base for BR pretty considerably. Whether they want it or not, PS3 owners now have a BR player and odds are they also have an HDTV. It is only a matter of time before they buy a couple BR titles to see what the big deal is. They will probably buy the big titles like Xmen, MI3, and Superman Returns, and when they see how great they look, they will proabably continue to buy more titles every so often.

Microsoft did the only thing they could do to compete, and that was to release an HD-DVD add-on to the 360. The difference is that people now have to BUY the HD-DVD format. They have to want it so much that they are willing to pay $200 plus the price of movies. The PS3, right or wrong, gives you no choice. Since HD-DVD isn't catching on like they had hoped, and since the install base for BR just shot through the roof, I simpy cannot see how BR wouldn't win by default if nothing else.

The only chance I think HD-DVD has is to significantly lower the price of the players AND titles, and I just don't see them doing this. Am I missing something here?