More misinformed propoganda

[JTK]

I hate to say it, but I have a friend of mine who's really bought into the whole HD-DVD/MS propoganda FUD campaign sight unseen.

He just posted this terrible piece like it was gospel truth.

By the way, more bad news for Blu Ray continues to flood in...here's a good prognosis from Digitaltrends from last week.

Now, HD-DVD may not become a standard either, but there is no denying now that the format is in WAY better shape than Blu Ray right now. As I said, if the quality is comparable (and it is), the format with a LOWER PRICE is going to prevail. So far that is definitely the way it's shaping up.

Optical HD Battle May Be Over: HD DVD Wins
By Rob Enderle
December 6th, 2006

Nearly a year and a half ago I wrote a column saying that Blu-Ray wins or nothing does. This showcases the reality of doing predictions because while the analysis held up, events did not pan out as anticipated and by any current measure HD DVD will end this year with a decisive win.

The basis for the prediction, which did accurately point out that Sony’s win here might actually cost them more than a loss, was the PS3 and the forecast volumes for that product. Back in August of 2005 we did know that HD DVD, which used DVD production technology, would be easier to bring to market but it simply did not seem reasonable that Sony would put their PlayStation franchise at risk for anything but a technology they were absolutely certain they could bring to market on time.

That turned out to be incorrect. The problems with Blu-Ray have created extreme cost and execution problems for Sony and now their premier division (instead of being the profit center for Sony) is predicting they will take a $1.5B loss next year largely resulting from this decision. To put this in perspective, just think what would happen if Apple’s iPod group, instead of generating massive profit, suddenly dropped into massive loss. Now you can see why the Sony PlayStation division just changed out their top executives.

Why HD DVD is Winning

When you talk to either the HD DVD or the Blu-Ray camp you get the sense that neither actually watches movies much. Both cite features as the reason why folks will pick one or the other. Yes there is a lame shooting game in League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (Blu-Ray) and there are a ton of things you can do interactively in HD DVD (including changing car colors in one scene in The Fast and Furious III: Tokyo Drift). But the movie market moves on quality of movie, price of player, and price and availability of media.

At launch HD DVD players were about half the price of Blu-Ray players and the movie price for HD DVD is generally running about $5 less. In addition, many of the new HD DVD movies also have regular DVD side which means that buyers, most of which will have both HD DVD and DVD decks, will get better value with HD DVD than with Blu-Ray – that’s the theory anyways.

All that being said, the killing blow may have been done by Microsoft who decided to bring to market a $200 HD DVD option for their Xbox 360 which has been in market a year longer than Sony and is projected to have a near 20x installed base advantage by year end (10M Xbox 360 to 600K PS3). Note that both projections are aggressive but Sony was supposed to originally ship 2M PS3s into the market during the 4th quarter and actual numbers (given they had under 200K at launch) may be closer to 400K. And with a recall possible there is a chance they might not even make that. Add to this that the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive is for movies only, so each one counts for movie viewing while PS3s may not be used to watch movies and you have a situation where the active movie player advantage by year-end should be between 4x and 6x better for HD DVD over Blu-Ray.

Finally, HP who had been a big Blu-Ray supporter and dominates the Media Center PC market, introduced a $100 HD DVD upgrade for their PCs (Sony’s Blu-Ray VIAO solution was just dropped to $749). The impact of this last move is still too early to measure but there is no comparably priced (not even close) solution using Blu-Ray.

If you go to Amazon and look you can see HD DVDs are solidly ahead and this is before the impact of either the Microsoft or the HP moves, many of which won’t be opened until Christmas or haven’t yet been shipped (HP).

Now Sony will stick with a technology for years after the market has decided on another path and they do have some very strong supporters which include Dell, Apple, and Disney. Dell traditionally has been the PC bellwether company, Apple has the most loyal customer base, and Disney is the only Studio that people ask for by name. So these folks, particularly Sony, could drag this on for years. But if that is the case not only will many in the industry not make money, Sony will probably lose the most because they are still the ones doing the heavy lifting (In addition, after the battery problems, neither Dell nor Apple is as close to Sony as they had been).

Right now it appears impossible for Blu-Ray to gain a substantial lead on HD DVD, even after massive investment, they likely could only close the gap. If the HD market depends on the emergence of one as a standard and Blu-Ray no longer has a chance to be that standard, how long will it be before the Blu-Ray supporters follow HP and switch sides?

Do You Want One Standard?

Now you can evidently help drive this if you are so inclined. There is a petition that has been set up for you to voice your support if you believe that there should be only one and HD DVD is that one. You can find the petition here . Evidently they had collected 2,300 signatures at the time of this writing.

The petition was put together by HD NOW where the folks have collected a rather interesting list of supporting material which goes far farther than I have on supporting the conclusion that we’ve prematurely crossed over to the point where HD DVD has won the High Definition DVD competition.

Does Blu-Ray Die?

Blu-Ray has substantial storage capacity advantages for data and could survive as a high capacity personal computer storage medium. While expensive, one non-Sony vendor’s upcoming Blu-Ray laptop solution costs around $800 on top of a $3000 notebook but it gives that product an unmatched removable media capability. But this is a vastly better storage solution for a high-end PC it isn’t a high volume high definition movie watching solution.

So BluRay could indeed survive but probably not for movies only for PS3 games and high-end optical backup. The real question is does the PS3 survive or whether there will ever be a PS4. Some are saying that the PS3 is in deep trouble and some are saying the PS4 will never arrive with massive game defections from PS3 to Xbox.

Wrapping Up

The market wants one solution for High Definition video and we are already starting to see high definition downloads through services like Xbox live. Apple’s iTV is expected to go even further when it launches early next year. It may actually be too late for either of these platforms to move; if folks move aggressively to downloads for high definition content and if High Definition pay per view cable offerings continue to improve, even if I’m correct and HD DVD has won, it may have actually prevailed too late in the process to survive for long.

Be that as it may, with a 4x to 6x advantage by year end, you’d have to conclude that HD DVD has reached a point where it can’t lose and Blu-Ray is only now in a position to ensure both platforms lose. That last option still appears most likely if the market doesn’t move aggressively to one HD platform.
http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback158.html

[WriteSimply]

Originally Posted by JTK

I hate to say it, but I have a friend of mine who's really bought into the whole HD-DVD/MS propoganda FUD campaign sight unseen.

He just posted this terrible piece like it was gospel truth.

Friends don't let their friends spread FUD.


fuad

[Deane Johnson]

This Rob Enderle stuff is circulating like crazy. What people don't add is that he is a key player at The Promar Group, who has Toshiba as one of their major clients. He's also on the Toshiba Advisory Board. Hardly an objective observer.

I try to add this information whenever I can, but it keeps popping up everywhere.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by WriteSimply

Friends don't let their friends spread FUD.


fuad

That's why I'm bringing it to the gang here so I can go armed to the teeth.

Originally Posted by Deane Johnson

This Rob Enderle stuff is circulating like crazy. What people don't add is that he is a key player at The Promar Group, who has Toshiba as one of their major clients. He's also on the Toshiba Advisory Board. Hardly an objective observer.

I try to add this information whenever I can, but it keeps popping up everywhere.

^^ Hell, this is all I needed right here.

It just amazes me how some people are lapping up the Microsoft FUD Kool Aid so easily. My acquaintance here that I referred to is yet another person who's very small time, started reviewing some HD-DVDs for his rinky dink site, and now he's fallen for the whole bit.

I'm not sure he's spent even 5 minutes with any BD related products.

[Blue]

So... he is involved in promoting HD-DVD, what do you expect, some honesty and a few facts! I read a bad review on a blu ray player somewhere tonight - the site was sponsored by you guessed it HD-DVD.

There is more than one way to buy advertising. How about I post a report that the PS3 can not only play blu ray but if you pay me $1,000 I will also say it can make coffee water the plants, take the dog for a walk and for another $1,000 it will do the washing and do your job for you!

Can I also point out that analysts (especially the ones you are digging up of late) are worse than that good old accounting joke.
Little Johnny asks his teacher what 2 + 2 =? Teacher responds 2+2= 4
Little Johnny goes home and asks his Mum a mathematician what 2+2=?
Mum responds that is the sum of 2 and 2 which = 4
Just then Dad comes home an accountant.
little Johnny asks Dad what does 2 + 2 =?
Dad responds well Johnny what would you like it to equal!

[Deane Johnson]

Here's the link to the Promar Groups client list:

http://www.promar.com/clients.htm

And, the link to Rob Enderle's biography:

http://www.promar.com/RobEnderle.html


If you look in his biography, you'll note that he has been ranked number one in placing stories in the press since 1995. Is is any wonder HD-DVD has hired him.

I'd say he's earned his number one ranking, these stories have been popping up everywhere. What they don't do is provide the information that he is a paid story planter.

[JTK]

Here we go.




Me: Have you seen or spent any appreciable amount of time with any Blu-Ray related products yet?



Him:

Other than spending probably a couple of hours tops flipping through what I've reviewed so far at my friend's set up, no. Don't get me wrong I liked what I saw, but I did not find anything superior to HD-DVD in the Disney discs that I've seen. I'm guessing the uncompressed soundtracks are probably more robust than Dolby Digital Plus and TrueHD, but you're going to have to have an audiophile set up to discern the difference.

On the other hand Eric, you have to admit it does not look good. Nearly everything you read, on any site, has said Sony botched the PS3 launch and nobody who bought it cares about Blu Ray. I'm not making it up -- from IGN to CNet to CNN to the Wall Street Journal, that theme has been echoed over and over about Sony's horrendous launch of the PS3.

That obviously carries over to Blu Ray. The Ps3 is supposed to be the be-all end all of the Blu Ray format. Right now, you still have a format that's 2, maybe 3 times as costly with no reason to invest in it whatsoever right now. You can talk all you want about future potential, but right now, is there any reason a consumer should buy Blu Ray over HD DVD? Plus, if the numbers keep up, those studio exclusivity deals Sony backers continue to point to will dwindle. Fox and Disney keep saying they have "no plans" to support HD DVD, but Universal has already said they'll be HD DVD exclusive for the next year and if you see JAWS or JURASSIC being part of that plan, that's going to be a major coup.

I have no reason to tell you to buy HD DVD other than a) the discs ON THE MARKET are, if anything, superior to what Blu Ray has out there, and b) the format is inherently VASTLY cheaper. Those are no-brainers in explaining why HD-DVDs are outselling Blu Ray badly (again, look at Amazon).

At the moment it appears Blu Ray is another losing technology Sony has created -- you can't deny the amount of money they've lost, PS3 units they couldn't move, because of costly delays and the inherent expense of the format...all for a format with more capacity that, right now, has no other added advantages in comparison with HD-DVD. Should Sony lose this round in the console wars OR have their huge market share slashed by Nintendo/MS or a combination thereof -- or have Blu Ray be anything other than THE high def DVD standard -- it's going to go down in history as one of the biggest tech blunders of all-time.

If you want to show me how well Blu Ray is doing, how people are talking about it (just look at how many more people post about HD-DVD than Blu Ray on the AVS forum -- it's a basic 3:1 difference), and why I should spend $1000 on a player for a format with certain discs some claim aren't even as good as HD DVD...let me know why.

He's 100 percent bought in to the HD-DVD and MS propoganda. I really don't have the time or the energy to get into this "argument" for the 9784957693476493678th time.

I view people like this like I do cult members: They're brainwashed and there's nothing you can do for them until something happens to them in their lives personally to get them out of it.

This an acquaintance I've "known" for the better part of 15 years, and I expect better from him than this. He's disappointed me in recent weeks with this.

I suspect I'm simply going to be cutting him off real soon at this rate. He runs some podunk site that no one even visits and I only pop in once a week out of charity, for the most part, and as a gesture.

http://andyfilm.netfirms.com/phpbb/n...opic.php?t=898

^^ You can see it for yourselves. If you want to go over there and inject some Blu, be my guest, but be nice and be polite and respect the forum rules, please.

All he's been doing is nothing but HD-DVD and DVD reviews.

[Deane Johnson]

>>>"PS3 units they couldn't move"

This statement alone shows how little grasp he has of reality.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Deane Johnson

>>>"PS3 units they couldn't move"

This statement alone shows how little grasp he has of reality.

It's really a surprising amount of ignorance.

Andy's a pretty cool guy and he's usually a lot more objective and thorough than this, but HD-DVD seems to have this effect on people: They spend money on it and suddenly it "is the best" and the hell with facts or reality.

He doesn't make a lot of money, as you can tell by looking at that site, so him buying into HD-DVD was like "holy @#$%" so of course he's going to defend it from here to eternity like all the other zealots.

It's cheap, so it's the best. The hell with the facts.


He admitted upfront that he's basically got no experience with BD which is why I'm really not going to waste time or energy getting in some BS argument over the same old FUD talking points and hearsay.

I'm just really disappointed.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Deane Johnson

This Rob Enderle stuff is circulating like crazy.

That's why it was manufactured. He's the king.

Now all HD DVD has to do is, get players on the shelf, get them to sell, and stay ahead of BD in movie offerings.

You know, the unimportant side issues.

Gary

[Deciazulado]

Right now, you still have a format that's 2, maybe 3 times as costly with no reason to invest in it whatsoever right now.

?????????? ?????????

2 or 3 times more costly?
$500 XBox+Add-on/cheapToshiba vs $500 PS3?
1 to 1
$800 Xpensivecase Toshiba vs $1300 Panny?
1.6 to 1

how come he multiplied/exagerated everything by 2x?

Pioneer $1500? vs Toshiba 2nd gen $1000? 1.5 to 1 still.
And no 24p? the rulers some people have are very rubbery...

You can talk all you want about future potential, but right now, is there any reason a consumer should buy Blu Ray over HD DVD?

It's the now generation! Lets buy a 60% format now cus it's cheaper and have it around for the next 10 or 20 years instead of do a liitle effort that gets us a better future. People that think like that buy cheap cars or toasters that break down or don't last and then have to refinance to buy another car or do without hot bread.

(sounds like the future of many HD-DVD owners)

You can talk all you want about future potential, but right now, is there any reason a consumer should buy Blu Ray over HD DVD?

err, 70+ titles by Fox, Sony, Columbia, Disney, MGM, Lions Gate, not available on HD-DVD and growing, with several different players from 4 manufacturers at diferent price points? And growing?

The only thing Blu-ray does not have is Universal

Plus, if the numbers keep up, those studio exclusivity deals Sony backers continue to point to will dwindle. Fox and Disney keep saying they have "no plans" to support HD DVD, but Universal has already said they'll be HD DVD exclusive for the next year and if you see JAWS or JURASSIC being part of that plan, that's going to be a major coup.

I'm still amazed about this reverse psychology that small Universal will never budge till Hell freezes over while the bigger Blu studios will cry like girls and run to the HD-DVD side at the drop of a hat (or an HD-DVD sold)

Fox and Disney keep saying they have "no plans" to support HD DVD, but Universal has already said they'll be HD DVD exclusive for the next year

Why does it work for the mind of a HD-Duder that Universal states they're sticking with their choice, but it doesn't work in their minds when the Blu-ray studios say the same? And as I said, the Blu-ray studios are "giants" in box office compared to Universal last decade's performance. Which carries more weight?? Only in the Mind of HD-Dolta.

"Fox and Disney keep saying" but you're not listening!

I'll go Xian for a second and quote that Jesus dude: "Those with two ears better listen!"

and if you see JAWS or JURASSIC being part of that plan, that's going to be a major coup.

And if you see STAR WARS or THE LION KING or BOND or CE3K? What will you call that? A revolution?

See? one short ruler for HD-DVD, and one a different size fot the other half a dozen Blu studios

and etcs:

I have no reason to tell you to buy HD DVD other than a) the discs ON THE MARKET are, if anything, superior to what Blu Ray has out there, and b) the format is inherently VASTLY cheaper. Those are no-brainers in explaining why HD-DVDs are outselling Blu Ray badly (again, look at Amazon).

This is like a broken record that never stops playing,
"the discs ON THE MARKET", hey buddy if you keep seeing lists that are ommiting 10, 20, 30% of the Blu-rays ON THE MARKET (which I've PERSONALY confirmed as being on stores like Best Buy Walmart Target and Suncoast, instead of relying on HD-Dominated Amazon websites) and only live in the online world (instead of the real world ) where I've bought 95% of my discs (and only 5% online), and you keep thinking a $25 HD-DVD is VASTLY cheaper than a $25 Blu-ray and a $500 for a player is VASTLY cheaper than $500 for another player, man, you have no cure.

I guess 2 ears, 2 eyes, and friends are not enough.




The only thing Blu-ray has going against it right now is the HD-DVD FUD

[b2bonez]

Well it's the power of propaganda... The HD-DVD crowd got started early and haven't let up even during the period when the only thing they had to sell was the Xbox addon.

I don't think it's going to stop anytime soon, only the "real world" lack of HD-DVD products and BD filling the store shelves will convince the hard core HD-DVD fans.. But even then I doubt it will have much effect on the noise level..

With all of the BD products coming (HW & movies). I guess standing on the train tracks shouting and waving your hands is their only option... But we all know how that's going to work out, now don't we...

b2b

[JTK]

Great stuff, bonez and company.

It's amazing how the whole thing stems off of this dialogue and admission:


Me:
Andy, have you seen or spent any appreciable amount of time with any Blu-Ray related products yet?

Him:
Other than spending probably a couple of hours tops flipping through what I've reviewed so far at my friend's set up, no.


^^ Just like so many other HD-DVD followers, I guess. Parrot a bunch of opinions and hearsay and believe it as fact without little to no firsthand experience to back it up.

Why? Because they WANT to believe it because they alread put money down on HD-DVD and it just by God HAS to win because THEY put money on it, regardless of anything else.

That's why I just didn't see any point in even responding to him on this: He admits upfront, literally, that he doesn't know what he's talking about.

It's all gravy after that.

But it's been fun watching you guys mess around with it.

[JTK]

http://andyfilm.netfirms.com/phpbb/n...opic.php?t=936

WARNING: Could induce seizures, epilepsy, and complete loss of any and all bodily functions and control!



This is what it looks like when you have people deliberately lapping up Kool Aid and propoganda.

You'll note in the previous thread I linked to in this thread that my acquintance didn't let the fact that he was quoting Toshiba FUD as fact deter him in the slightest.

Heh, in this thread, note where he admits he gets his "information" from? Like it isn't painfully obvious? That's what I want everyone to pay attention to the most: Where people are getting their "information" from and how they're running to the moon with it.

That's what we all keep running into abroad. That little thread on that nobody forum is a nice, condensed Cliffs Notes version of the entire problem.


"It's cheap so it's the best."

[theknub]

luckily, i haven't had breakfast yet or it'd be all over my laptop

[JTK]

Originally Posted by theknub

luckily, i haven't had breakfast yet or it'd be all over my laptop

What makes me sick about it is I've "known" Andy and Paul for over a decade. They're both cool guys and they usually have their heads on straight and are way more objective and thorough that what the likes of this is.

This is a complete loss of form for them all the way.

It's really dismaying, but like I said: This kind of thing is everywhere, like pestilence.

I just have to ironically chuckle at the "sources" being cited for all this crap. Go figure.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by JTK

"It's cheap so it's the best."

Perhaps the new HD DVD slogan should be "The Look and Sound of Cheap"

[dialog_gvf]

Seems like the same old same old to me.

- HD DVD is cheaper
- HD DVD is winning the war
- The capacity and bandwidth doesn't matter
- Sony sucks

> But in no instances -- even with HD DVD -- will I sit down and refuse to watch a regular DVD again...it's not like going back to VHS at all.

That is: You don't need the BD studios now, and can wait.

I would argue that anyone that says that, doesn't really care about HD. And it points to DVD continuing to dominate.

But, as we've seen elsewhere, they say this, and then they announce they've purchased a Sammy or a PS/3 because they can't stand missing out on some titles (all of which are available on DVD).

I predict he'll become reluctantly neutral within the next six months. $399 Toshiba players versus hundreds of BD exclusive titles. Which do you want to watch?

And in the end, when they add up what they paid, it will be more than if they had gone Blu-ray at the start.

Gary

[jorg]

when i read threw that i could see the main point was price well actuly it was past prices and past numbers is was true that when blu ray first came out and for a while later it was more expensive then hd dvd but know if you look u can get a stand alone blu ray player for 550$ or get the ps3 got 500$(by then wal ps3 has shipped over a millon) and the bs about the 200$ add on for 360 sold realy bad around 300 000 i believe if that.

but i think u friend has just been reading some realy bias articals and old ones.
i have read 2 or 3 professional web articals saying that it is had to find a visual difference between hd dvd and blu-ray. meaning to me that after finding that right know video quality is almost the same then we have to look to the future what one is future proof? and blu-ray is the winner in that catagory

[JTK]

I'm not going to make a new thread just for this, and it's not really related to BD per se, but get a load of this stupidity:

http://www.pcgamer.com/forum/viewtop...21888&start=15

I'm posting as Q-BZ in that thread.

I hadn't posted on that forum in a while but I was bored yesterday.

You can see what it led to.