Effects of Dual-format Player/Disc Support

[Josh]

Earlier today, Warner announced that they would be introducing a single disc which would play in both Blu-ray and HD DVD players. Additionally, LG announced that they would introduce a single player which would play both Blu-ray and HD DVD discs. After giving it some thought, I believe these announcements are more detrimental to the HD DVD group than the Blu-ray group.

Most agree that the Blu-ray group has a very solid content and hardware support. Blu-ray supporters have already enjoyed support from all content providers excluding Universal and all hardware manufacturers excluding Toshiba. They were set to, at the very least, survive the format war for the foreseeable future with the current support.

On the other hand, the HD DVD group was in desperate need of additional studio and manufacturers support to continue the battle. Coming into CES, they were looking for any type of studio neutrality or hardware neutrality to justify their existence.

What will be the effect of the dual-format support?

Blu-ray studios will now feel no need to produce HD DVD content. With the majority of players being Blu-ray, and all future players supporting both, there is no reason to support a niche product like HD DVD. Universal should recognize that Blu-ray is superior in technical terms and make the switch as well - but their stubbornness to adopt a Sony-led technology will probably mean they only produce HD DVD content for the foreseeable future.

Hardware companies will stay where they are, or move to a dual-format stance. Sony will stay Blu, and Toshiba will stay HD DVD because that is there technology, but everyone else will be forced to produce dual-format players eventually as the market demands.

One of two things will happen. Either HD DVD will die as support moves to the superior format, or both will survive and the war will continue without ammunition. If the first scenario happens, it will be best for consumers. If the second happens, consumers will reject both in spite of studios and stick with DVD - leaving both to die a horrible death with billions lost by all involved. Consumers generally will not deal with two formats, and if Universal refuses to produce content for Blu-ray, HD DVD will be dragged along for the ride over the cliff.

In other words, this is probably not going to end pretty.

[dobyblue]

I think Sony and Panasonic will stay Blu as well.

[WriteSimply]

I agree with josh.

And to add, if their format eventually ends HD-DVD supporters will have Warner and Universal to blame for prolonging the war unnecessarily. Warner for trying to extend the life of their DVD royalties and Universal for not supporting BD and ending the war before it began.

If it doesn't end this year, it'll be a protracted war. That means a niche product market. The CE companies are not going to like Warner, Universal and LG.


fuad

[mbslrm]

HD DVD might just become a niche market, and BD will probably just replace DVD...

[theknub]

if a hd-dvd/dvd combo disc is $5 more, what would a BR/hd-dvd disc cost?

[dialog_gvf]

Perhaps this is step #2 of Warner's face saving. They now want to transition to BD, and so they are planning on offering the HD DVD folk this transitional format.

Consider you have your first player, and your forming a collection from the big eight studios, and Warner has deployed their combo (and nobody else):

HD DVD only owners: 1/3 of your purchases are BD as well
Combo owners: 6/8 of your purchases are BD (Uni + Paramount are HD DVD only)
BD only owners: 1/8 of your purchases are HD DVD as well

Now, you're planning on buying a new player. Which one does each of the three groups get?

HD DVD: Combo (they buy into BD)
Combo: Probably a combo, maybe they buy BD only and use their current deck for HD DVD
BD: Most likely another BD deck

See how each generation pushes more and more people to BD only decks?

Gary

[JTK]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Perhaps this is step #2 of Warner's face saving. They now want to transition to BD, and so they are planning on offering the HD DVD folk this transitional format.

Consider you have your first player, and your forming a collection from the big eight studios, and Warner has deployed their combo (and nobody else):

HD DVD only owners: 1/3 of your purchases are BD as well
Combo owners: 6/8 of your purchases are BD (Uni + Paramount are HD DVD only)
BD only owners: 1/8 of your purchases are HD DVD as well

Now, you're planning on buying a new player. Which one does each of the three groups get?

HD DVD: Combo (they buy into BD)
Combo: Probably a combo, maybe they buy BD only and use their current deck for HD DVD
BD: Most likely another BD deck

See how each generation pushes more and more people to BD only decks?

Gary

Not a bad theory. A dual deck and/or "combo disc" would soften the blow, as it were, for HD-DVD only folks.

Again, we come back to: The only people really happy about any of these prospects are HD-DVD folks.

[mbslrm]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Perhaps this is step #2 of Warner's face saving. They now want to transition to BD, and so they are planning on offering the HD DVD folk this transitional format.

Consider you have your first player, and your forming a collection from the big eight studios, and Warner has deployed their combo (and nobody else):

HD DVD only owners: 1/3 of your purchases are BD as well
Combo owners: 6/8 of your purchases are BD (Uni + Paramount are HD DVD only)
BD only owners: 1/8 of your purchases are HD DVD as well

Now, you're planning on buying a new player. Which one does each of the three groups get?

HD DVD: Combo (they buy into BD)
Combo: Probably a combo, maybe they buy BD only and use their current deck for HD DVD
BD: Most likely another BD deck

See how each generation pushes more and more people to BD only decks?

Gary

That is a possible....

[dialog_gvf]

Any chance that LG will actually be announcing a DRIVE, not a player?

The drive must exist before the player can be built. And for HTPC, such a thing (perhaps w/ BD burning) could be very much in demand.

The time to create the control software, deal with the decoding differences, get AACS approval, etc, has mean puzzled.

Gary

[Deciazulado]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Combo owners: 6/8 of your purchases are BD (Uni + Paramount are HD DVD only)

? Paramount HD DVD only ?

[Shadowself]

I don't see how this player is going to be anything but more expensive than the equivalent HD DVD or Blu-ray player. There have to be three sets of optics (DVD, HD DVD *and* Blu-ray) instead of two (either DVD and HD DVD *or* DVD and Blu-ray). A clever design could have just one red laser and one "blue" laser (using a beam diverter between the HD DVD optics and the Blu-ray optics). However, any way they do it, it has to be more complex and expensive.

Additionally, royalties will have to be paid to both the HD DVD and Blu-ray camps.

While, in theory, LG could ship a "stripped down" player with only the absolute minimum capabilities to meet HD DVD and Blu-ray specifications and nothing more, I don't see how it will be as inexpensive as the least costly HD DVD or Blu-ray players. It probably won't be as expensive as buying one of each, but it might come close.

I guess it comes down to how much premium you are willing to pay for a combination player.

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

? Paramount HD DVD only ?

Uni is the only one that supports HD-DVD 100%

[mbslrm]

Originally Posted by Shadowself

I don't see how this player is going to be anything but more expensive than the equivalent HD DVD or Blu-ray player. There have to be three sets of optics (DVD, HD DVD *and* Blu-ray) instead of two (either DVD and HD DVD *or* DVD and Blu-ray). A clever design could have just one red laser and one "blue" laser (using a beam diverter between the HD DVD optics and the Blu-ray optics). However, any way they do it, it has to be more complex and expensive.

Additionally, royalties will have to be paid to both the HD DVD and Blu-ray camps.

While, in theory, LG could ship a "stripped down" player with only the absolute minimum capabilities to meet HD DVD and Blu-ray specifications and nothing more, I don't see how it will be as inexpensive as the least costly HD DVD or Blu-ray players. It probably won't be as expensive as buying one of each, but it might come close.

I guess it comes down to how much premium you are willing to pay for a combination player.

And why would any CE want to go through all that?

[Jeff®]

Will this Warner Frankendisc be dual layer HD DVD and single layer Blu-ray?

[blitz6speed]

It is quite obvious that only HD-DVD supporters find the news as a posotive. It shows that hd-dvd is worth a damn, when its not. Its on life support and has been for a while. I am also sure this dual player will be crippled bigtime with no 1080p/24 and a host of other goodies missing. And the #1 reason why hd-dvd owners love the news? They can try something other then a toshiba player. Have you guys been reading the A2 problems thread? Its post after post after post of people having HUGE issues on the A2, it almost seems worse then the A1, if thats even possible.

So to them, any bone that gets thrown their way is a huge deal. Sad.

[JonasK]

Originally Posted by mbslrm

And why would any CE want to go through all that?

I don't think the extra hardware costs for a combo player are particular high. Just the optics and the controller chip in the optical drive. The software cost will be higher for the interactive parts, but not for the video and audio processing which are common. If the sales volumes become high, the extra software costs will not be large.

And since people will be willing to pay an extra premium in order to get access to all movies, this might actually look like a pretty good business case for CE.

As long as Universal is HD DVD exclusive, there will be demand for combo players. And the more combo players that will be sold, the less are the chances that Universal will switch to Blu-ray.

As a consumer it would be better with only Blu-ray, but today I feel rather pessimistic about that. We will probably end up with all combo players... paying the double license fee.

[Jeff®]

LG is bizarre.

After first showing its planned BD-199 Blu-ray player at last year's CES, the manufacturer abruptly cancelled the unit, and promised to retool the deck as a dual-format combo player. Then in yet another turnaround, this past Fall LG again abandoned its next-gen hardware plans, apparently reaffirming its Blu-ray-only support.

Well, it now seems LG is back on the format-agnostic bandwagon, and is planning to not only announce its still-unnamed combo player at CES but demonstrate a full working prototype.

Link

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Deciazulado

? Paramount HD DVD only ?

If an HD DVD owner buys Paramount discs, and Paramount continues to create TWO separate releases, they will be HD DVD only.

I was looking at things from a point of view of what a single player owner would end up owning format wise. And how that ultimately benefits BD because it means Warner would be giving HD DVD owners a transitional disc.

Of course, if Universal takes advantage to go neutral, it's champagne time.

Gary

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Jeff®

Will this Warner Frankendisc be dual layer HD DVD and single layer Blu-ray?

I have to believe it will be a flippy. I can see how they'll manage it otherwise.

How far from replication capability and yield is this thing?

Gary

[reiella]

More interested in the dual-sided discs. But then again, I'm reminded fairly obviously of the success of the DualDisc format for music [CD/DVD in that case]. Older players wouldn't be able to read their appropiate side because of the weight difference in the disk [haven't seen the specs to know if they is even an issue however with BD/HD], and just the added price mark-up usually resulted in them not being worth the sale effort. As it is, the HD-DVD/DVD sets are the generally more expensive releases, wouldn't an HD/BD disc summary cost more yet?

But then again, it's not like the majority of folks were still using cassettes when DualDisc came out . I can see the dual-format disks be workable, I just wouldn't personally want to get them [mostly as it feels like I spending money for something I don't want, but that's me :P].

On the dual-deck? Eh, it's a nice idea, but it's ultimately a fairly flimsy one, the nature of the american media market isn't one that's nice to share competiting formats. It's good for consumers though so they can make a purchase with confidence. But they should be more costly.