Will Blu-ray be bigger than DVD?

[RustyK94]

Do you think Blu-Ray can match or exceed the success of dvd

(Sorry forgot to put a poll plz del the last thread)

[Pseudoblu]

I voted yes probably more because I hope so... but as DVD started the prices were also ridiculous.. I love blu... simply for the sound alone.. but if prices don't come down it will, i would think put some strain on the industry. I know a lot of people that think I am nutz as they dont get why I would buy movies I own already just because they came out with a new sound format or cleaner picture... tough call but heres to hoping..

[Neo65]

Blasts from the past :

Will CDs be bigger than LPs?
Will Color TVs be bigger than B&W TVs?
Will DVDs be bigger than VHS?

At some point (years from now when the inevitable tipping point occurs), movies will stop being made on DVDs. When that happens, eventually, BD will be bigger than DVDs because you can't find the new movies on DVDs.

Thing though, the arguments against BD replacing DVDs are very similar in tone to the big 3 debates above, except there was no internet discussion sites back then (outside of newsgroups).

[tron3]

Originally Posted by Neo65

Blasts from the past :

Will CDs be bigger than LPs?
Will Color TVs be bigger than B&W TVs?
Will DVDs be bigger than VHS?

At some point (years from now when the inevitable tipping point occurs), movies will stop being made on DVDs. When that happens, eventually, BD will be bigger than DVDs because you can't find the new movies on DVDs.

"Will people still be using napkins in the year 2000?" - Kramer / Seinfeld

Blu-ray can only be threatened by the industry's own stupidity to introduce another new technology in 10 years, or by the slowing economy due to rising costs.

Have we forgotten that the humble beginings which made all this possible? The lowly CD will be 25, a quarter century, next year. Even it was based on the mylar 5-1/4" floppy disc. Cut one open and you will find the two mediums are virtually the same size.

DVD is not obsolete because it turned 10 in a rapidly changing technology market. DVD was released on the cusp of HDTV. A short life was inevitable. Blu-ray will certainly live on and evolve to live as long as CD or even VHS.

Even with EVERYONE downloading songs, the CD continues to thrive. Heck, even LP's are making a minor comeback. Like the old song says, "Everything old is new again."

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by Neo65

Blasts from the past :

Will CDs be bigger than LPs?
Will Color TVs be bigger than B&W TVs?
Will DVDs be bigger than VHS?

At some point (years from now when the inevitable tipping point occurs), movies will stop being made on DVDs. When that happens, eventually, BD will be bigger than DVDs because you can't find the new movies on DVDs.

Thing though, the arguments against BD replacing DVDs are very similar in tone to the big 3 debates above, except there was no internet discussion sites back then (outside of newsgroups).

Just to be fair, there are many other questions that could be asked that show a product failing.

Will SACD be bigger than CD?
Will Laserdisc be bigger than VHS?
Will mini CD be bigger than CD?

Some products just don't catch on. Now Im not saying that blu-ray won't be big and will probably hold the largest piece of the media market share in the future, however, it will not be bigger than DVD I think. That doesn't mean that we can't enjoy our blu-rays and will not get nearly every movie out on them that deserves HD treatment.

Blu-rays biggest problem is HDTV adoption. While HDTVs are being sold at incredible rates, the issue for blu-ray is you need an HDTV to enjoy it, where with DVD you didn't need to buy anything mroe than a DVD player.

Now, ther might be some statistic that says 99% of US households will have an HDTV in there house by 2012. Good, however that doesn't mean that these HDTVs are HDTVs that are going to show a noticible difference between DVD and BD. Think of all the HDTVs taht have been sold that are 32-36 inches, 720p and the viewer sits 10 feet away, you won't see a difference with that, so why go blu? for teh lulz is the only reason.

On top of that is the issue that while you might have an HDTV in your house, you might have 2-3 SDTVs also, that all need DVD to enjoy movies on (unless you are going to hook up 2-3 blu-ray players on your SDTVs), so if you buy a blu, you can only watch it on 1 TV in your house. These are going to be bigger and bigger problems as more mainstream people get into blu.

They are going to say, whats the point of this, if my little girl can't watch Sleeping Beauty in her room unless I buy her a $100 blu-ray player (hopefully, they will be that cheap in the near future) for here 15 inch Mickey Mouse TV. The DVD upconverted looks nearly as good and she can watch it when she wants in her room too, Ill go with DVD.

For Blu-ray to grow as big as DVD, studios need to cut off DVD support or at least limit it.

[Mxr5150]

I think so with time.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

... Good, however that doesn't mean that these HDTVs are HDTVs that are going to show a noticible difference between DVD and BD. ....

I beg to differ on that point. Two weeks ago my brother visited for a week. While I was at work they invaded my DVD / Blu-ray collection and ended up watching "The Day after Tomorrow" on blu-ray without even knowing what blu-ray was.

When I found out I told them not to touch my "expensive" Blu-rays because they are not DVD. Yet, even my brother who was never techno-savy noted how incredible the picture looked. Even on my dated Sony HD Tube TV of only 34" and 1080i.

Then on Saturday night his kids wanted to watch a movie and would only select from my blu-ray collection. We watched Cars. Needless to say their eyes were glued to the TV though they have seen it numberous times before hand.

[CptGreedle]

Based on the rate of growth of the BD, it is on course to out-do DVD in the long run. Plus with more consumers and more support, it may yet reach a level surpassing that of DVD. This will take a long time, as DVD has been hugely successful. And DVD will linger for a while after it no longer dominates the charts, probably longer than VHS did thanks to backwards compatibility. But in the end, I think Blu-ay will do better.

[ThePhantomOak]

Hell yes. Home theater is catching on at a much faster pace now then it was, and BD is is gaining good ground...

I expect that as they start ramping up production of so-so movies, and people start to rent more, and resell more, the prices will drop like a rock to around what they should be.

What is funny about price is I bought Night at the Museum on DVD for $24 and on Blu for $13

I think because BD players can read DVD, and when BD price drops, DVD will go to almost zero, there will still be a group of people who will gobble up the last discs, but who will want to make something that can only sell for a small margin in a couple years?

[ThePhantomOak]

Originally Posted by tron3

though they have seen it numberous times before hand.

Lies. Pure Lies.

They may have viewed it before, but until you see it on blu, you have never SEEN it.

[Mr. Cinema]

It will be successful, but I don't think it will be bigger than DVD. DVD was revolutionary, a phenomenon. It changed the home video industry. BD won't make that kind of impact.

[Guinness]

It will never happen for these reasons:

1. Audio CD sales are fading quickly, due primarily to downloads.

2. DVD rentals/sales are also fading, again due primarily to downloads (that's why Blockbuster stores are gradually closing).

3. Video downloads are becoming faster and of higher quality each passing day.

Now, with that said, it doesn't mean that Blu-ray won't become an established product category. It simply means it will not be as big as DVDs. Not even close.

[Bobby Henderson]

Originally Posted by Guiness

Video downloads are becoming faster and of higher quality each passing day.

Baloney.

It's going to be a long time before video downloads can approach the levels of quality and data bandwidth supported by Blu-ray. Until then, VOD on the Internet is going to continue providing crap-tastic 720p HD downloads with compression levels more extreme than any other form of HD anywhere.

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

Blu-rays biggest problem is HDTV adoption. While HDTVs are being sold at incredible rates, the issue for blu-ray is you need an HDTV to enjoy it, where with DVD you didn't need to buy anything mroe than a DVD player.

I don't think the situation is that simple.

First of all, a lot of people don't realize they can attach a Playstation 3 or most Blu-ray player models to a standard TV set. If a person's existing DVD player breaks they don't necessarily have to buy another DVD player as a replacement. They can buy a Blu-ray player or PS3, use it to play existing DVDs. They can even set these devices to output Blu-ray movies in 480p.

The other issue is HDTV adoption, which frankly is not a problem at all. More than 30 million HDTV sets have been sold in the United States -a number far greater than the install base of Blu-ray. HDTV sales are likely to increase dramatically this fall as people rush to buy new TVs ahead of the FCC's move next Februrary to shut down NTSC analog OTA broadcasts.

The only real problem is customer awareness. A significant number of HDTV owners aren't watching HD content on those screens because they either don't know how to set up the TV correctly, haven't accessed any HD programming or both. Once customers see the real difference between SD and HD content on their TV sets they only want to see programming in HD. In the long run this helps Blu-ray in a big way. Eventually everyone is going to see the difference and be impressed by it.

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

For Blu-ray to grow as big as DVD, studios need to cut off DVD support or at least limit it.

I disagree.

All it will really take is for regular DVD players to disappear from most store shelves. Right now Blu-ray players are still a relatively high end, niche status item. But after this fall/holiday shopping season and the February 2009 deadline on the DTV broadcasting switch, we'll begin to see a serious trend begin where DVD players become scarce and Blu-ray players become more common and affordable.

[CptGreedle]

I hope so. Everyone loves my HDTV and my PS3 and Blu-ray movies, but no one I know owns any of those things! (Well i know of one other HDTV). I just wish I could get people more into it, but the price is driving them back. If the price of the players went down more, and the HDTVs, then they would jump on the chance to own an HDTV and Blu-ray player/PS3.

[Bobby Henderson]

It's just going to be a simple matter of electronics manufacturers eventually eliminating standard DVD players from their product lines. Lots of other digital technology has come and gone.

DVD players eventually break or just quit working properly. I went through 3 DVD players since 1999. I doubt if the PS3 will be the last Blu-ray device I own. A point will be reached where a customer in need of a DVD player will only be able to replace it with a Blu-ray capable device.

Just look at the revolving door of storage formats that arrived and then disappeared in the computing industry. CD-R burners are rare anymore and there's a lot more DVD-R/RW type blanks than CD-based blanks. Most people have DVD burners in their computers rather than mere CD burners. Add to that many have moved on to flash-based or hard-disc based portable music players. The demand for CD-R blanks has gone way down. A customer will probably raise some eyebrows if he walks into a store asking for blank 100MB Iomega Zip discs.

[john_1958]

Originally Posted by RustyK94

Do you think Blu-Ray can match or exceed the success of dvd

(Sorry forgot to put a poll plz del the last thread)

the hardware has to come down in price to at least half the cost

[john_1958]

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

It's just going to be a simple matter of electronics manufacturers eventually eliminating standard DVD players from their product lines. Lots of other digital technology has come and gone.

DVD players eventually break or just quit working properly. I went through 3 DVD players since 1999. I doubt if the PS3 will be the last Blu-ray device I own. A point will be reached where a customer in need of a DVD player will only be able to replace it with a Blu-ray capable device.

Just look at the revolving door of storage formats that arrived and then disappeared in the computing industry. CD-R burners are rare anymore and there's a lot more DVD-R/RW type blanks than CD-based blanks. Most people have DVD burners in their computers rather than mere CD burners. Add to that many have moved on to flash-based or hard-disc based portable music players. The demand for CD-R blanks has gone way down. A customer will probably raise some eyebrows if he walks into a store asking for blank 100MB Iomega Zip discs.

i have an old panasonic sd dvd that i bought in 1999 and it still works
and cd-r

what i would like to see is set top box blu-ray recorder

[theprophecy247]

i dont think so cuz i dont think blu-rays life span will be as long as DVD's was

[tron3]

Originally Posted by theprophecy247

i dont think so cuz i dont think blu-rays life span will be as long as DVD's was

Again, the birth of HD DVD and blu-ray was prompted by the introduction of HDTV. As long as 1080p remains the standard, there is little reason to depart from blu-ray.

Ok, let's say that by 2020 something new comes out. BUT, the TV standard is still 1080p. Why do I care about the new thing? It still plays at 1080p. Are the bitrates higher? And will they make THAT much difference over BD? What is the compelling reason to upgrade other than blu-ray has become old? Age didn't stop people from buying VHS until DVD came along which was vastly superior, not just new. If DVD never showed up, we would still blisfully be using VHS. Albeit, with complaints.

DVD was due the upgrade to keep up with the display technology. Until something compelling is the new standard blu-ray will be around a LONG time.

Super-VHS was the new thing too, and it flopped. As did Superbit DVD. As did Digital VHS! (Or on deaths doorstep.)

I have said over and over that 3" disc might be the next step. Unless that next step is a form of blu-ray, or compatible to, there is nothing better about it other than being smaller

[Beta Man]

Since we're to the point where you can't distinguish 1080p from 1080i at certain sizes/viewing distances....... I think 1080p will be the "standard" t.v. resolution, and the human eye's inability to see much better than that, will make the market for higher resolutions so small, Blu-Ray will be the new DVD, and T.V. progams will eventually be broadcast in 1080p, so EVERYTHING will be 1080p with little incentive to go beyond that.

That's my guess.