Is the switch to 100% ATSC in the USA going to cause a surge in TV demand in 2009?

[HDTV1080P]

On September 8th 2008 Wilmington North Carolina will be the very first city in the United States to switch to 100% ATSC digital. At noon on September 8th 2008 all full power commercial TV stations in Wilmington North Carolina will turn off the NTSC analog TV transmissions. Wilmington North Carolina is the test city. Then on Feb 17th 2009 all NTSC full power stations everywhere in the United States is scheduled to be turned off and only broadcast in ATSC digital.

http://www.dtv.gov/wilmington/index.html

The Federal Communication Commission was wise to have a test city to see what will really happen under real world conditions. All consumer electronics manufactories should watch what happens on September 8th and during the several weeks after September 8th. There is a possibility that in the city of Wilmington NC that there may be a shortage of ATSC digital converter boxes and new TV sets as consumers that watch only over the air broadcast channels rush to the stores to buy new equipment. If several stores run out of digital ATSC converter boxes some consumers will choose to purchase low cost TV’s between $80-$300 which have ATSC tuners already built in. Others may spend $1,000 or more on a 1080P model. Some consumers that do not subscribe to DVR services will be purchasing low cost $200-$300 DVD recorders with built in ATSC tuners so they can continue to record in 480I quality from the local channels.
If there ends up being a shortage of ATSC digital converter boxes, DVD recorders, and new TV sets with the built in ATSC tuners on store shelves in Wilmington North Carolina then the same thing may occur nationwide after February 17th 2009. Perhaps the digital switch could help jump start the economy as consumers will be required to purchase new equipment if they want to continue to watch their local free broadcast channels. No one knows for sure but several millions of new ATSC digital converter boxes and new TV’s could be sold nationwide in 2009 with shortages possibly lasting several months.
Over the years the bandwidth for over the air free TV channels keeps shrinking in the United States. There was a time when older TV’s and VCR’s went between channels 2-83. Then the FCC shrank the TV bandwidth to channels 2-69. Now when the nation converts to 100% digital ATSC the actual real bandwidth will be reduced again to channels 2-51. Virtual bandwidth with ATSC digital uses MPEG-2 compression with AC-3 with a 8VSB modulation that allows several video and audio channels to be placed in the same space as one NTSC channel use to be located. So with the switch to 100% ATSC we are losing physical bandwidth but gaining virtual bandwidth.
The reason for the switch to the better quality digital ATSC format and the reduction of the physical over the air broadcast TV bandwidth is so the FCC can re-assign the discontinued TV bandwidth for other important things like emergency service communications, etc. If the FCC keeps shrinking the physical TV bandwidth possible in several decades from now there might not be free over the air TV anymore. Many consumers subscribe to cable TV and satellite services because they offer a wider selection of channels compared to over the air free broadcast TV. Of course almost nothing is for free, the advertisers and are tax dollars pays for over the air broadcasts.

[caliminius]

To the roughly 60% of the U.S. populace that has cable, the analog shut down means nothing. That's not including whatever percentage subscribes to satellite service (I'm assuming that satellite isn't lumped in under the cable TV umbrella). So you have less than 40% of the population who may have an interest in the matter.

Currently, they are flooding the airwaves with commercials concerning the switch. I'd imagine in Wilmington this is even more so. I don't really they'll be a major issue, nor some huge jump in HDTV sales (since the digital switch IS NOT a mandatory switch to HD broadcasting).

I imagine when the switch happens, they'll be a lot of Best Buy and Circuit City employees lined up trying to upsell anyone with an issue to a new HDTV and not the cheap converter box. But with the flood of advertising the switch has gotten, I think most should be aware that there is a cheap alternative in the converter box and will already have one before the switch.

[HDTV1080P]

The biggest item in demand after the United States switches to 100% digital ATSC might be portable handheld color TV’s. Some portable handheld color TV’s do not have an external antenna input or A/V input to add a ATSC digital converter box. Also even if one can add a external converter box to a select few handheld TV’s , the external ATSC digital converter is not practical since the physical size is larger then the TV itself and it requires 120 Volt AC.

Most portable black and white and color TV’s will end up in the trash since they are unusable for broadcast TV watching.

[MrRoy]

Most of the converter boxes are free with the $40 gift card you can get from the government. This isn't going to produce a spike in HDTV's.

[HDTV1080P]

Originally Posted by MrRoy

Most of the converter boxes are free with the $40 gift card you can get from the government. This isn't going to produce a spike in HDTV's.

Your correct if everyone goes for the free converter boxes there would not be a spike in TV’s as long as the supply of boxes can keep up with the demand of millions of consumers looking for boxes. It is possible if there is a shoratge of converter boxes that some consumers will purchase a ATSC DVD recorder or TV instead.. Then if that happens people will purchase 13” color TV’s for around $100 or 20 inch TV’s around $150 with built in ATSC tuners.

[SkillzthatKillz]

there are a lot of dumb people out there who think that it means they need a new tv and there are plenty of salesmen who will prey on those poor bastards

[Ex Accountant]

Some I'm sure are dumb, but I like to think most are merely ignorant.

[HDTV1080P]

For a select few portable TV’s that have an antenna input or A/V input Winegard has developed a battery operated add on tuner with remote control. This ATSC converter box is bigger then most portable TV’s and is not practical for handheld TV's. For most people it would be easier to just purchase a new portable TV or handheld with an ATSC tuner built in.

Dimensions of the portable ATSC converter box (Dimensions 5.5”W x 1.75”H x 6.5”D.
http://www.solidsignal.com/prod_display.asp?PROD=RC-DT09A&xzoom=Large#xview

Then one also needs this battery pack to power the ATSC tuner converter box
http://www.solidsignal.com/prod_display.asp?PROD=RC-BP9V&xzoom=Large#xview

[Anthony P]

Some I'm sure are dumb, but I like to think most are merely ignorant.

and others use it as an excuse

[HDTV1080P]

News & Commentary
Wilmington Digital TV Switch Upsets Residents
Government offices get hundreds of complaints
By Swanni

Quote

"Bloomberg News reports that federal and local offices were jammed with phone calls from residents complaining that they couldn't watch television. When the switch occurred at noon, analog sets would no longer display a picture on local channels; instead a message appeared saying residents must upgrade to digital equipment.”
"Postema said many callers had purchased digital converter boxes, but didn't know how to connect them.”
“If people didn't believe me before, yesterday's results in Wilmington should be the ultimate persuader. The government spent a small fortune on a PR campaign to alert area residents and they still weren't ready.”

Click link to read full article
http://www.tvpredictions.com/wilmington090908.htm

[HDTV1080P]

Wilmington Firefighters Acting As Digital TV Repairmen
Government offices get hundreds of complaints.
By Swanni

http://www.tvpredictions.com/wilmington091008.htm

[DarkBluMetallic]

If they're having this much trouble, then they should not do the cold switch for all of the U.S. You might even expect riots in some cities if it is switched as planned particularly around electronic stores.

[HDTV1080P]

Originally Posted by DarkBluMetallic

If they're having this much trouble, then they should not do the cold switch for all of the U.S. You might even expect riots in some cities if it is switched as planned particularly around electronic stores.

It is a done deal and the TV spectrum that channels 52-69 were located in are going to be used for emergency communications, and other communications after Feb 17th 2009. Years ago channels 70-83 were sold and channels 2-69 was still large enough for NTSC. Now since the physical TV spectrum is shrinking again to channels 2-51, they had to move to the better quality ATSC system that would increase virtual bandwidth (several 480I ATSC channels can be placed in the same bandwidth as one 6MHZ NTSC channel, or one 1080I, or 720P with one or more 480I channels).
Hopefully people will be able to control themselves and not riot. All we are talking about is going without TV for a few days or weeks for the consumers that did not prepare. There are other more important things people should be complaining about. I had to laugh that the Firefighters are the ones becoming TV repairmen. I guess some people cannot afford to call the TV repairmen in their city and the firefighters were nice enough to help the seniors watch TV again. They also were required to check the smoke alarms which is more important safety then a TV. Most people still have radios if they can not pull in ATSC TV channels.

[HDTV1080P]

Wilmington Transition Prompts 1,200 FCC Calls

http://www.tvtechnology.com/article/66532

[HDTV1080P]

Hopefully the entire nationwide switch on Feb 17th will go as well as the Wilmington switch. The FCC picked a small city to do the test. On Feb 17th 20-30 million homes are estimated to need a ATSC converter box or a new TV with a ATSC tuner (estimates vary and no one knows for sure). There is only 180,000 TV’s with homes in Wilmington. Out of those 180,000 homes in Wilmington with TV’s only 14,000 do not subscribe to cable or satellite services and use 100% free over the air broadcasts for all their TV’s. There are 166,000 homes that subscribe to cable/satellite services in Wilmington on at least one of their TV’s, it is unknown how many of those 166,000 homes have a mixture of TV’s connected to over the air broadcasts and satellite/cable service. There was over 28,000 government coupons redeemed in Wilmington. It appears that most people just purchased a 480I digital converter box. Of course some people most likely switched to cable or satellite. While others that had TV’s that were 20-30 years old most likely upgraded them to cheap 480I TV’s with a built in ATSC tuner for $80-$300.
I would like to see if there is any data to support a small surge in TV sales and DVD recorders in the next several weeks after the switch in Wilmington. Not everyone is going to keep their 20-30 year old TV and well use this opportunity to upgrade their equipment.

Latest News links on the Wilmington Switch

http://www.tvweek.com/news/2008/09/wilmington_got_message_out_abo.php

FCC calls DTV trial a success

http://www.cedmagazine.com/FCC-DTV-trial-success.aspx

[HDTV1080P]

Viewer antenna woes in Wilmington don’t surprise researcher

QUOTE
"In a telephone interview Tuesday night, Goodstadt said initial reports of viewer antenna problems were disturbing. “In the scheme of things, Wilmington is a fairly flat area,” he said. “We have found on average that 54 percent of over-the-air households will have trouble and estimated that number would be half in Wilmington."
"While acknowledging that it’s too early to draw conclusions as to the extent of antenna-related problems in Wilmington, Goodstadt said the anecdotal evidence is not good news. “The fact is that even visible (problems related to consumer antennas) suggest that other areas where there is variable terrain will have bigger problems, which will be much more apparent,” he said. “Wilmington, in effect, is the tip of the iceberg.”

http://broadcastengineering.com/news...lmington-0912/

[HDTV1080P]

FCC’s Copps: More work needed on digital transition

http://www.cedmagazine.com/FCC-Copps...ransition.aspx

[RandDawg]

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

The biggest item in demand after the United States switches to 100% digital ATSC might be portable handheld color TV’s. Some portable handheld color TV’s do not have an external antenna input or A/V input to add a ATSC digital converter box. Also even if one can add a external converter box to a select few handheld TV’s , the external ATSC digital converter is not practical since the physical size is larger then the TV itself and it requires 120 Volt AC.

Most portable black and white and color TV’s will end up in the trash since they are unusable for broadcast TV watching.

I didn't even think of that. I better sell mine on ebay now.

[U4K61]

Interesting how NAB developed Digital HDTV in the 80's to counter market share losses to cable and to justify keeping un-used broadcast spectrum from going to land-mobile. Today it has gone full circle. Analogue is on the way out and set to go dark in 09, and the governement will get their spectrum regardless.

Perhaps the mad rush to get 16:9 sets for the digital signals will boost sales and increase the number of households ready to step up to blu-ray.

I see the webpage only shows RF as the way to connect the converter-box.